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Costco's fourth quarter: Will Wall Street be surprised?

Costco Wholesale Corp. (NASDAQ: COST), the popular warehouse store that competes with BJ's Wholesale Club (NYSE: BJ) and Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT), will report Q4 earnings on Wednesday, October 7. How will the company do?

Don't look for growth, my friends. According to Earnings.com, estimates from Wall Street say that Costco will produce 77 cents per share in income. Unfortunately, that represents a 16% drop in the metric. Surprising? Maybe a little. After all, we're still suffering a bad economy, and you figure that people would want to cut costs by leveraging the bulk buying power of the Costco business model.

Continue reading Costco's fourth quarter: Will Wall Street be surprised?

PriceSmart not a buy after Q3 results

PriceSmart (NASDAQ: PSMT), an operator of warehouse clubs in Central America and the Caribbean and headquartered in San Diego, announced results for the third quarter on Friday. Judging by the reaction to the stock, I'd say the market wasn't too thrilled by the company's performance. As I write this, PriceSmart shares are down almost 14% on heavy volume in afternoon trading.

Net warehouse sales increased nearly 8%. Total revenue went up by a similar amount. Earnings came in at 30 cents per diluted share. Unfortunately, that means that PriceSmart's bottom line declined by 17%.

Continue reading PriceSmart not a buy after Q3 results

Costco's Q1 earnings didn't thrill the market

Costco Wholesale Corporation (NASDAQ: COST) didn't have the greatest first quarter on record. On a reported basis, earnings per share on a diluted basis rose a penny to $0.60. A single, sad, solitary penny. But, let's go non-GAAP, shall we? If we add back $0.05 relating to the mark-to-market effect of some life insurance contracts, we get $0.65 per share, which, according to this article, means that Costco beat earnings estimates by $0.03.

That's not bad, actually, although the market wasn't impressed. As I write this, the stock is down over 2.5%. While the top line increased 3.7% to $16.4 billion, same-store sales expanded by a smaller amount. And, as we all know, same-store sales are the big thing when it comes to gauging the relative health of a retail operation with multiple store locations (although many pundits do argue that you shouldn't go overboard in terms of focusing on comps). Costco saw its comps rise by a mere 1%. And, interestingly enough, I noticed in the press release that the effect of a stronger dollar made itself known to the company during the quarter. There's been a lot of talk lately about how the fluctuating currency markets would eventually impact businesses with foreign exposure. Considering that we're a global economy, every individual investor must keep this in mind.

So, Costco, which competes with BJ's Wholesale Club (NYSE: BJ) and Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (NYSE: WMT), did okay for the quarter in terms of earnings, but comps are a different matter. Management said that non-food categories were weak. Not surprising, considering that foodstuffs are, in theory, the defensive business in a bad spending environment. Costco will have to address that through better merchandising. As for the stock, I agree with Elizabeth Harrow that it could be cheap. If you've got a very long-term horizon, you should be okay with this company, but traders would be advised to use a tight stop on it. I could see this one going down from here, at least in the short-term, based on the weak comps.

Disclosure: I don't own any company mentioned; positions can change at any time.

Costco holding up for now, but will it continue to hold up?

Costco (NASDAQ: COST), the shopping club that competes with BJ's (NYSE: BJ) and Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT), reported earnings for the fourth quarter on Wednesday. Sales did well, rising 13% to $22.6 billion. On an adjusted basis, excluding a litigation charge, the bottom line came in at $0.92 per share, and according to this source, that is one penny below expectations. Excluding the effect of gasoline inflation, comparable sales increased 6%.

For the most part, I think Costco held up well during the quarter. Yes, the warehouse club didn't wow the Wall Street analysts this time around. But comps were pretty decent for the quarter, and the top-line performance was acceptable, all things considered. Membership-fee revenue went up by 22%, which was cool.

This doesn't mean that Costco won't have a tough time going forward. As the economy worsens (and it will), Costco is going to face intense competition for the attention of the consumer's cash and credit cards. Keep in mind, though, that Costco has some good brand equity when it comes to discount shopping. The company's image is of a place where people can buy in bulk and get great deals. In a bad market environment, consumers may flock to Costco to save money. So the company might do okay (on a very relative basis) during the crisis.

Continue reading Costco holding up for now, but will it continue to hold up?

Sam's Club vs. Costco: Battle of the Brands

This post is part of our Battle of the Brands feature. Let us know which brand you prefer, and watch out for more Battle of the Brands posts.

A portfolio manager once said, "If a nuclear explosion hit my city and I had to pick one place to hole-up for a couple of years until all was calm, I would want to be at a Costco store. It has everything any human being could ever want or need." Well, I don't know if I could spend a couple of years in a Costco store, but no problem with a couple of hours!

Sam's Club, a division of Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE: WMT) versus Costco Wholesale Corp. (NASDAQ: COST): they have collectively changed the way people shop. The differences are profound between the two, yet conceptually they are very similar. Both "warehouse" concepts sell in bulk fashion. If you're looking for a small jar of Grey Poupon mustard, forget either of these two warehouse stores. But, if you want two side-by-side 16-ounce jars of Grey Poupon, enough to satisfy a football team, then you have come to the right place.

As similar as these two are, the differences do exist. Costco offers tremendous prices to its customers (club members) and quality. Costco has figured out the consumer will come in with a set list of items to be purchased, only to be enticed to expand that list as they walk the store. Strategically placed "special" items, or Costco employees serving out free samples of delicious food and drink items not normally found on the customer's list. It's brilliant marketing: on-site demonstrations and/or sampling of the product. "An impulse purchase" is the expression I have used many, many times as I've explained to my wife why I bought this or that.

Continue reading Sam's Club vs. Costco: Battle of the Brands

Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA+20.0310,246.97
NASDAQ-2.982,151.08
S&P 500-0.071,093.01

Last updated: November 10, 2009: 10:13 PM

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