Continue reading Oil, the stock market and economic inconsistency

Oil, the stock market and economic inconsistency originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 06 Jul 2009 15:20:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

This post is part of a series in which TheStockAdvisors.com asked financial experts to name their top stock pick if McCain or if Obama wins the election.

"The GOP is traditionally known as the party that spends more on defense; thus, if McCain wins the election, one stock to benefit would be defense firm General Dynamics (NYSE: GD)," says John Reese, editor of Validea, which follows the strategies of "legendary" investors such as Warren Buffett and Peter Lynch.

"While McCain has talked tough about reforming the defense budget, he has also pledged to increase the size of the military, modernize the armed services, and push hard for strong missile defense systems -- all of which require serious spending.

"As a major producer of battle tanks and assault vehicles, armaments and munitions, battleships and nuclear submarines, and military information technology systems, this Virginia-based firm is thus likely to have quite a bit of work on its hands during a McCain presidency.

"Just as importantly, General Dynamics' finances and fundamentals are very strong, earning approval from both my Peter Lynch and Warren Buffett-based Guru Strategies -- computer models that are each based on the approach of a different investing great.

"Because of its moderate 18.14% long-term growth rate and huge annual sales of $28.7 billion, General Dynamics is considered a 'stalwart' by my Lynch strategy, the type of large, steady firm that Lynch found offered protection during downturns or recessions.

"Two big reasons my Lynch model is high on this stalwart: its yield-adjusted P/E/Growth ratio of 0.75, which signals that the stock is a bargain right now, and its 18.79% debt/equity ratio, a sign that GD has the conservative financing Lynch liked to see."

My Buffett-based model, meanwhile, likes General Dynamics' consistency. Over the past decade, its EPS have declined just once, rising from $1.46 to $5.10 in that time.

"The company's annual return on equity -- a figure Buffett used to find firms with the 'durable competitive advantage' he famously prizes -- has been at least 16.4% every year.

"GD has also retained $22.30 in per-share earnings in the past decade while increasing EPS by $3.64, showing it can earn investors a 16.3% return on the earnings it keeps. That's a sign of the strong management Buffett is also known to look for."

Steven Halpern's TheStockAdvisors.com offers a daily look at the latest market commentary and favorite stock picks and investment ideas from the nation's leading financial newsletter advisors.

McCain stock: Defense play with General Dynamics (GD) originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 10 Oct 2008 10:10:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Speaking on Rupert Murdoch's new Fox Business Network, Warren Buffett said that he wasn't interested in Bear Stearns (NYSE: BSC), Countrywide Financial (NYSE: CFC), and had also liquidated Berkshire Hathaway's (NYSE: BRK.A) entire stake in PetroChina (NYSE: PTR).

For the full story with quotes from Buffett, check out this piece from Bloomberg.

It's no surprise that Buffett "didn't come close" to taking a position in Countrywide Financial, as such a move would have been a sign of a seismic shift in his investment philosophy. Had Warren Buffett bought Countrywide, I probably would have done a post "Is Bill Gates' bridge partner getting senile?"

When looking to make acquisitions, Buffett typically looks for two things: competent management and honest management. Countrywide's dwindling stock price speaks volumes about management's competence, and the SEC investigation of CEO Angelo Mozilo's stock sales tells you a lot about management's honesty.

Warren Buffett took a pass on Countrywide. If he can find something better, so can you.

Warren Buffett denies interest in Bear Stearns and Countrywide Financial originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Sat, 20 Oct 2007 11:40:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.