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Closing Bell: Another Win (BRK.B, SIRI, CSTR, DE, WFMI)

Today saw mixed economic data in housing and in industrial production, yet the market rose again. The notion that a fed-exit policy is slowly forming had no significant impact on stocks and mush of the traffic still seems earnings-related.

Here were today's unofficial closing bell levels:

Dow 10,309.24 +40.43 (0.39%)
S&P 500 1,099.51 +4.64 (0.42%)
Nasdaq 2,226.29 +12.10 (0.55%)

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Continue reading Closing Bell: Another Win (BRK.B, SIRI, CSTR, DE, WFMI)

Closing Bell: When the Market Can't Decide... (NFLX, PALM, T, LVLT, NICE, MOS)

About all the FOMC Minutes did today was agitate those hoping for a dollar rally on currencies because the FOMC members were still concerned about the economic risks. Stronger supplies of oil were also ignored as weather related trading took oil higher from the post-report lows. The ISM non-Manufacturing data also came in just above the break-even point and the ADP data did not signal any major changes for Friday's jobs data. The DJIA and S&P 500 went from negative to positive so many times today that this was mixed regardless of how the averages ended up.

Here were today's unofficial closing bell levels:

Dow 10,574.06 +2.04 (0.02%)
S&P 500 1,137.14 +0.62 (0.05%)
Nasdaq 2,301.09 -7.62 (-0.33%)

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Continue reading Closing Bell: When the Market Can't Decide... (NFLX, PALM, T, LVLT, NICE, MOS)

'Dark Knight' box-office receipts top $1 billion

Released last July, The Dark Knight -- the second installment in director Christopher Nolan's latest adaptation of the Batman mythology -- continues to score box-office dollars. Distributed by Warner Brothers, a subsidiary of Time Warner Inc. (NYSE: TWX), the movie crossed the $1 billion mark late Friday, joining an elite quartet to pass this high-water mark.

Leading the list of top all-time box office grosses are Titanic ($1.84B), Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King ($1.12B), and Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest ($1.07B).

More than half of Dark Knight's box-office dough ($533.1 million, to be specific) was earned domestically, while $468 million was collected from overseas theaters. Movie-watchers were driven to the theaters in droves due to stellar reviews, positive reaction to its predecessor (Batman Begins) and the shocking and premature death of costar Heath Ledger, who died last January.

Continue reading 'Dark Knight' box-office receipts top $1 billion

Does Jeff Bewkes have a credible vision for making Time Warner (TWX) a good investment?

Jeff Bewkes, the Stanford MBA behind HBO's huge success, took over as CEO of BloggingStocks' parent, Time Warner (NYSE: TWX) this January. The New York Times reports that he wants to get rid of everything he inherited except selected "content providers" -- e.g., people who make movies and TV programs and write articles in magazines. But would such a strategy make Time Warner's stock an attractive investment?

I don't think so. The reason is simple. Warner Brothers produced an enormous hit with Dark Knight -- the LA Times reports that its revenues so far total $441 million domestically and are expected to hit $520 million. Dark Knight's success is not typical -- it's an outlier. That's because the movie business is a huge gamble as is any enterprise that depends on the fickle combination of talent and audience tastes. Hollywood often overcomes this problem by getting wealthy individuals to pony up to finance films on the hope that they might get to rub elbows with the stars.

Meanwhile, Bewkes wants to dump the cable business. He plans to spin off 84% of Time Warner Cable to shareholders. He plans to sell AOL. And it looks like he'll try to dispense with most of Time Warner's magazines. This would leave Time Warner a much smaller company with lower return on assets -- by my rough estimate based on doubling the revenues and operating income of its first half results for the remaining Filmed Entertainment and Networks segments.

Continue reading Does Jeff Bewkes have a credible vision for making Time Warner (TWX) a good investment?

How to profit from the Dark Knight Industrial Complex

Dark Knight, the Batman movie starring Heath Ledger, did boffo box office: $158.3 million, according to Defamer. But this blockbuster will not just benefit Warner Brothers and DC Comics, which share parent Time Warner Inc. (NYSE: TWX) with BloggingStocks. There are at least six companies that will benefit from Dark Knight's success. According to Seeking Alpha, these companies include:
  • Time Warner -- through its Warner Brothers and DC Comics subsidiaries are profiting most directly.
  • Comcast Corporation (NYSE: CMCSA) partnered with Warner Bros. to offer "behind-the-scenes footage, trailers, and mini movies on demand"
  • Verizon Communications, Inc. (NYSE: VZ) and Nokia Corporation (NYSE: NOK) collaborated in creating the Nokia6205 The Dark Knight Edition. Seeking Alpha reports that "This batphone targets superfans, with bat wallpaper, voice tones, screensavers, and the film's trailer pre-loaded."

Continue reading How to profit from the Dark Knight Industrial Complex

Will 'The Love Guru' and 'Get Smart' avoid box office disaster?

Viacom Inc.'s (NYSE: VIA) Paramount studios, which has scored big at the box office with "Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull" and "Iron Man," and Time Warner Inc.'s (NYSE: TWX) Warner Bros, which is behind "Speed Racer," can't win them all. For example, take "The Love Guru" and "Get Smart," which open this weekend.

Reviews for Paramount's "The Love Guru, which stars Mike Myers, are not just scathing, they are acidic. A.O. Scott of the New York Times said, "To say that the movie is not funny is merely to affirm the obvious... No, `The Love Guru' is downright antifunny, an experience that makes you wonder if you will ever laugh again." At the Los Angeles Times, Jan Stewart argued that the movie was filled with "low blows and elephantine misfires." Mike LaSalle of the San Francisco Chronicle is slightly kinder saying, "There are whole sections when watching the movie is like being locked in the mind of a 10-year-old boy."

Critics weren't much kinder to Warner Bros.' "Get Smart," a remake of the popular TV comedy from the 1960s. Newsweek's David Ansen dismissed it as distressingly generic, comments echoed by Claudia Puig of USA Today. To be sure, the movie has its fans, including Roger Ebert, who said Steve Carrell makes an "infectious Maxwell Smart."

Continue reading Will 'The Love Guru' and 'Get Smart' avoid box office disaster?

'Iron Man' vs. 'Indy': Preview of potential summer blockbusters

Since last year's summer movie preview featured mostly sequels and adaptations, this year's preview has been expanded to include more than just potential "blockbusters." The following is a chronological list of not only the most hyped film fare of the summer, but other noteworthy smaller entries, and a short commentary on each.

Robert Downey in Paramount Pictures Iron Man

5/2 - Iron Man, Viacom (NYSE: VIA)'s Paramount Pictures

The first of two big Marvel Entertainment (NYSE: MVL) adaptations of the summer, the Robert Downey Jr. led Iron Man has been getting a ton of hype and critical acclaim. This is the second year that a comic book adaptation has kicked off the summer, following last year's Spider-Man 3, which grossed over $150M over its opening weekend.

5/9 - Speed Racer, Time Warner (NYSE: TWX)'s Warner Bros.
Another big-budget adaptation of a generations-old cartoon. Last year's Transformers was, to my surprise, a huge success, so maybe Speed Racer, in the capable directing hands of the Wachowskis, can be as well.

Continue reading 'Iron Man' vs. 'Indy': Preview of potential summer blockbusters

Time Warner (TWX) earnings meet expectations

Time Warner Inc. (NYSE: TWX) posted earnings per share of 29 cents after items, but on a normalized basis the company's earnings were 24 cents. Revenue was $11.68 billion. First Call estimates were for earnings of 24 cents on revenue of $11.36 billion.

As far as how this compares, it really seems like the results were better than expected. Adjusted Operating Income before Depreciation and Amortization climbed 15% to $3.2 billion, reflecting double-digit increases in the Cable, Filmed Entertainment and Publishing segments, as well as a gain at the Networks segment. This growth was offset partly by a decline at AOL. Operating Income was up 29% to $2.1 billion.

Time Warner continued its aggressive share buyback. As of November 6, 2007, the company has repurchased approximately 119 million shares for approximately $2.2 billion since its $5 billion program was announced on August 1. At existing prices, the company expects to complete at least half of the program by the time the time it reports its 2007 full-year and fourth-quarter results.

Continue reading Time Warner (TWX) earnings meet expectations

Time Warner is not integrated yet

When I look at Time Warner Inc. (NYSE: TWX) and I think back to the merger with AOL I cannot help but think about all the value that evaporated rather quickly. Since that time billions of dollars in write-downs and write-offs have occurred, AOL was dropped from the name, and Time Warner has emerged slowly but surely from the kinds of challenges that business schools will be doing case studies on for many years to come.

I was a shareholder of AOL and stayed with it, so I am a TWX shareholder now. I anticipated the rise in the stock over the last year and made it one of my seven picks for 2007, optimistically believing it was set for more of the same growth. So far it has been dead money in 2007, not moving much in either direction. Carl Icahn made a big move on the stock last year and has since left with a tidy profit. He stirred things up a little but in the end did not have the backing to accomplish the changes he envisioned. Dick Parsons, CEO, made just enough changes to speed up the Time Warner train but not enough to alter its course.

Continue reading Time Warner is not integrated yet

Warner Bros. to make 'Shannara' fantasy books into movies

Somewhere in Hollywood, a group of executives gather, brainstorming the next sequel, remake or adaptation. Wait, I mean they are brainstorming the next brilliant original cinematic idea. Well maybe, but one particular group of execs, from Time Warner Inc's (NYSE: TWX) Warner Bros., recently came up with the idea of picking up the rights to Terry Brooks' Shannara fantasy book series.

Let me give you a little background on the author and the series: Brooks had read Lord of the Rings in college and decided to write The Sword of Shannara while in law school (according to this biography). I'll be kind and say that from reading The Sword of Shannara, you can tell he is definitely a fan of the Lord of the Rings. A really big fan.

This heavy influence on Brooks likely gave Warner Bros. visions of Peter Jackson's Lord of the Rings box office totals dancing in their heads. But what I see is a lot closer to Eragon's box office take, should this movie ever get made.

See, this series, like Eragon, isn't Lord of the Rings -- it's not even close. To give you an idea of the flaws in the Shannara books, Warner Bros. has decided to start the series with the second book, The Elfstones of Shannara, instead of the first. No explanation was given, but as someone that has read them, I'll tell you why -- the first book is so close to a retelling of the Lord of the Rings that it wouldn't get by as its own movie. It only was made into a book in 1977 because hordes of rabid Lord of the Rings fans were looking for their next fantasy fix.

Anyway, enough of my ranting, I think you can see how I feel about this being made into a movie. What do you think? Have you ever heard of these books? Do you think the adaptation(s) will be successful for Warner Bros?

Time Warner gets in on the Crocs craze

Time Warner Inc. (NYSE: TWX) has joined the Crocs craze.

Crocs, Inc. (NASDAQ: CROX) announced today that it has entered into a licensing agreement that would allow it and Jibbitz, LLC to license the Looney Tunes, Hanna-Barbera and Scooby-Doo properties of Warner Bros. Consumer Products, a unit of Time Warner.

The new Crocs footwear and the matching snap-on Jibbitz accessories (especially designed for Crocs) will feature classic characters including Bugs Bunny, Tweety, The Flintstones, The Jetsons, Scooby-Doo and many others.

This brings back me back to my growing up days as I remember cartoons, characters and sayings, least of which is Tweety's famous "I tawt I taw a puddy tat." Who knows how these new renditions of old memories will do, but by now Crocs has been licensing almost every form of character it can on its shoes.

Jon Ogg is a partner at 24/7 Wall St.; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Harry Potter comes two days early

Warner Bros., the feature film unit of Time Warner Inc. (NYSE: TWX), will be releasing its long-awaited Harry Potter film "Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix" two days earlier than planned. The new release date will open in the U.S. on July 11, after a world premiere in Tokyo on June 28 and a London premiere on July 3.

It is quite common for certain blockbuster films to come out on a Wednesday, which July 11 is, instead of a Friday because it gets to count toward "weekend opening ticket sales." It also allows for some movie-goers to not be distracted by the other blockbuster films that are available that day.

If you ever wonder why this is done, the answer is simple. MONEY. It's always about money. Take a look at the films coming out in June and you'll see why they are waiting to release the film in July. This is a movie-packed summer and there are only so many movie dollars to be spent in any given time period.

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Time Warner beats earnings expectations

Time Warner Inc. (NYSE: TWX) reported earnings per share of $0.22 on revenues of $11.184 billion versus estimates of $0.20 EPS and $11.19 billion for revenues. Earnings per share on an an after items net basis was $0.30, but the number to use is $0.22 EPS, which excludes one time gains. The company generated $1.4 billion in cash from operations and free cash flow was $973 million.

As expected, revenues were lower at AOL ($1.458 billion vs. $1.957 billion in Q1 2006), but cable showed the best gains with revenues growing to $3.85 billion (up from $2.385 billion in Q1 2006). Film posted roughly a 1% drop to $2.743 billion, Networks revenues were flat at $2.41 billion and publishing revenues were down less than 2% to $1.048 billion.

One of the uncanny issues is that AOL still carried 12.0 million Internet access subscribers, despite the company's migration away from this model. Its cable operations ended with 13.4 million basic video subscribers, with 6.5 million of those subscribing to two or more primary services and 1.7 million of those subscribing to the beloved Triple Play packages.

The company also reaffirmed full year adjusted OIBDA to be in mid-to-high teens off of a base of $11 billion in 2006, reflecting discontinued operations. The actual guidance for EPS is now $1.05 for fiscal 2007, including gains of roughly $0.10 on after tax gains. If you back this out to $0.95, that is slightly under the $0.99 EPS estimates from First Call, and in the conference call we'll find out how much of that $0.10 gain may be part of the actual earnings.

BloggingStocks will be liveblogging the conference call at 10:30 a.m. EST, and based on that call is probably what will be the largest directional factor from the Q&A Session.

Jon Ogg is a partner at 24/7 Wall St.; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Time Warner may yet take Carl Icahn's advice

Time Warner Inc. (NYSE: TWX) may yet take Carl Icahn's advice, according to Wall Street analysts.

Spencer Wang of Bear Stearns suggested yesterday that Time Warner was contemplating a "strategic event" for AOL, according to The New York Times's DealBook blog. UBS analyst Aryeh Burkhoff said that chances of an AOL sale are "high," the blog reported. Another possibility raised by analysts is a disposal of the Time Inc. magazine publishing business, Dealbook said.

Chief Executive Richard Parsons has called AOL a strategic asset. Companies, though, often say nice things about assets they plan to sell.

If AOL gets sold -- and it wouldn't shock me if it happened -- the usual suspects, Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG), Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ: MSFT), Yahoo Inc. (NASDAQ: YHOO) and Barry Diller's IAC/InterActiveCorp (NASDAQ:IACI) would take a look at it. The Time business would probably fall into the hands of a private equity outfit.

All of this should have a familiar ring to it. Icahn made many of these same points during his recent crusade against Time Warner management.

One interesting question: What to call the company if Time is sold? I hope Parsons chooses a historic name highlighting the company's connection to Warner Bros. The world doesn't need yet another quasi-Latin sounding corporate name that no one understands.

Warner's 300 thanks to '300'

Time Warner Inc.'s (NYSE:TWX) Warner Bros. pulled out another underestimated feather from its cap this weekend. Its gore and hack-fest film 300 has set what appears to be a record release for films in March. While the tally isn't in yet, Sunday estimates put ticket sales for the blood and gore movie (think Gladiator meets Sin City) at around $70 million. The movie's comic-book sequencing and graphic special effects allow decapitations and severed limbs to take on an entirely new light.

The best-guess estimate anyone had thrown out for the movie was up to $50 million. Its production costs on an end-to-end basis were roughly $60 million, putting the movie in the black after only three days. That is long before any DVD, video game or merchandise sales are registered in the coffers, either. It hasn't even opened in the UK as of yet. Analysts have been critical of Time Warner's movie revenues because there has been no Harry Potter nor Lord of The Rings to carry the rest of the movies. This will mark another major success for the unit.

For a company the size of Time Warner, one movie can't add enough to the bottom line to boost the earnings-per-share number. However, a successful movie can add up with others to contribute on the overage. It might also garner some stronger attention from analysts, who may have thought that only major franchise series movies can rule the roost.

One should also consider that this big surprise is coming in the last month of the quarter -- if this really racks up a huge profit in the next three weeks, analysts may have to increase some of their estimates. Two months ago and up until recently, the movie was not a write-off, but it wasn't expected to be nearly this big of a hit.

Here you can see the trailers and get soundtrack excerpts.

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