Continue reading Closing Bell: Another Win (BRK.B, SIRI, CSTR, DE, WFMI)

Closing Bell: Another Win (BRK.B, SIRI, CSTR, DE, WFMI) originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 17 Feb 2010 16:10:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Continue reading Closing Bell: When the Market Can't Decide... (NFLX, PALM, T, LVLT, NICE, MOS)

Closing Bell: When the Market Can't Decide... (NFLX, PALM, T, LVLT, NICE, MOS) originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 06 Jan 2010 16:15:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Jeff Bewkes, the Stanford MBA behind HBO's huge success, took over as CEO of BloggingStocks' parent, Time Warner (NYSE: TWX) this January. The New York Times reports that he wants to get rid of everything he inherited except selected "content providers" -- e.g., people who make movies and TV programs and write articles in magazines. But would such a strategy make Time Warner's stock an attractive investment?

I don't think so. The reason is simple. Warner Brothers produced an enormous hit with Dark Knight -- the LA Times reports that its revenues so far total $441 million domestically and are expected to hit $520 million. Dark Knight's success is not typical -- it's an outlier. That's because the movie business is a huge gamble as is any enterprise that depends on the fickle combination of talent and audience tastes. Hollywood often overcomes this problem by getting wealthy individuals to pony up to finance films on the hope that they might get to rub elbows with the stars.

Meanwhile, Bewkes wants to dump the cable business. He plans to spin off 84% of Time Warner Cable to shareholders. He plans to sell AOL. And it looks like he'll try to dispense with most of Time Warner's magazines. This would leave Time Warner a much smaller company with lower return on assets -- by my rough estimate based on doubling the revenues and operating income of its first half results for the remaining Filmed Entertainment and Networks segments.

Continue reading Does Jeff Bewkes have a credible vision for making Time Warner (TWX) a good investment?

Does Jeff Bewkes have a credible vision for making Time Warner (TWX) a good investment? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 11 Aug 2008 12:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

• Time Warner -- through its Warner Brothers and DC Comics subsidiaries are profiting most directly.
• Comcast Corporation (NYSE: CMCSA) partnered with Warner Bros. to offer "behind-the-scenes footage, trailers, and mini movies on demand"
• Verizon Communications, Inc. (NYSE: VZ) and Nokia Corporation (NYSE: NOK) collaborated in creating the Nokia6205 The Dark Knight Edition. Seeking Alpha reports that "This batphone targets superfans, with bat wallpaper, voice tones, screensavers, and the film's trailer pre-loaded."

Continue reading How to profit from the Dark Knight Industrial Complex

How to profit from the Dark Knight Industrial Complex originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 21 Jul 2008 18:09:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Viacom Inc

Continue reading Will 'The Love Guru' and 'Get Smart' avoid box office disaster?

Will 'The Love Guru' and 'Get Smart' avoid box office disaster? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 20 Jun 2008 16:12:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

5/2 - Iron Man, Viacom (NYSE: VIA)'s Paramount Pictures

Continue reading 'Iron Man' vs. 'Indy': Preview of potential summer blockbusters

'Iron Man' vs. 'Indy': Preview of potential summer blockbusters originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Sat, 03 May 2008 19:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Continue reading Time Warner (TWX) earnings meet expectations

Time Warner (TWX) earnings meet expectations originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 07 Nov 2007 08:53:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

When I look at Time Warner Inc. (NYSE: TWX) and I think back to the merger with AOL I cannot help but think about all the value that evaporated rather quickly. Since that time billions of dollars in write-downs and write-offs have occurred, AOL was dropped from the name, and Time Warner has emerged slowly but surely from the kinds of challenges that business schools will be doing case studies on for many years to come.

I was a shareholder of AOL and stayed with it, so I am a TWX shareholder now. I anticipated the rise in the stock over the last year and made it one of my seven picks for 2007, optimistically believing it was set for more of the same growth. So far it has been dead money in 2007, not moving much in either direction. Carl Icahn made a big move on the stock last year and has since left with a tidy profit. He stirred things up a little but in the end did not have the backing to accomplish the changes he envisioned. Dick Parsons, CEO, made just enough changes to speed up the Time Warner train but not enough to alter its course.

Continue reading Time Warner is not integrated yet

Time Warner is not integrated yet originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 28 Jun 2007 17:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Warner Bros. to make 'Shannara' fantasy books into movies originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 07 Jun 2007 13:56:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Time Warner gets in on the Crocs craze originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 07 Jun 2007 10:37:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Harry Potter comes two days early originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 01 Jun 2007 13:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Time Warner beats earnings expectations originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 02 May 2007 08:51:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Time Warner Inc. (NYSE: TWX) may yet take Carl Icahn's advice, according to Wall Street analysts.

Spencer Wang of Bear Stearns suggested yesterday that Time Warner was contemplating a "strategic event" for AOL, according to The New York Times's DealBook blog. UBS analyst Aryeh Burkhoff said that chances of an AOL sale are "high," the blog reported. Another possibility raised by analysts is a disposal of the Time Inc. magazine publishing business, Dealbook said.

Chief Executive Richard Parsons has called AOL a strategic asset. Companies, though, often say nice things about assets they plan to sell.

If AOL gets sold -- and it wouldn't shock me if it happened -- the usual suspects, Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG), Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ: MSFT), Yahoo Inc. (NASDAQ: YHOO) and Barry Diller's IAC/InterActiveCorp (NASDAQ:IACI) would take a look at it. The Time business would probably fall into the hands of a private equity outfit.

All of this should have a familiar ring to it. Icahn made many of these same points during his recent crusade against Time Warner management.

One interesting question: What to call the company if Time is sold? I hope Parsons chooses a historic name highlighting the company's connection to Warner Bros. The world doesn't need yet another quasi-Latin sounding corporate name that no one understands.

Time Warner may yet take Carl Icahn's advice originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 27 Mar 2007 12:10:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Warner's 300 thanks to '300' originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 12 Mar 2007 16:27:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Animated movies are always tricky for a movie studio. They may have all of the high costs associated with action and sci-fi films because of extra labor required and they can prove difficult to forecast. However, Time Warner Inc. (NYSE: TWX) has scored a major win with its "Happy Feet" animated penguin movie.

If you had told me that it would beat out a "new" James Bond movie on opening weekend and that it would have been this successful, I would have said your crystal ball needs fixing. The movie was expected to be a success, but this level of success has been quite surprising.

Analysts and critics of Time Warner were pointing out just three and four weeks ago that the company did not have any major hits from its movie studios. Yet Happy Feet has now rung up $121 million in domestic box office sales. This weekend it rang up another $17 million in ticket sales, beating Bond's $15.1 million sales again.

Jeff Goldstein, general sales manager for Warner Bros. put a $185 million or more target on the sales according to the Associated Press. But with another four to six weeks of theater shelf life, Happy Feet could do far more than that.

So much for critics saying that Time Warner didn't have any mega hits in its pipeline.

Happy Feet's success must baffle the naysayers originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 04 Dec 2006 11:35:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

After watching the music industry suffer from illegal digital piracy, the film studios are taking extra precautions to avoid the same fate. As a result, Apple Computer Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) is coming under pressure from some of Hollywood's biggest studios to rework the operating environment of its iTunes platform.

The studios, including Universal, 20th Century Fox, Paramount and Warner Bros, are enthusiastic about following Disney by offering their content via iTunes, but remain concerned about the platform's ability to prevent piracy.

Rightfully so when one considers that the average cost of a major studio release nowadays is approaching $100 million. The movie studios feel they have a lot more at stake than their (sister) record labels. One movie executive said, "We're very willing to do a deal but we're keen to get some concessions from Apple that will account for the differences between the value of music and television content and feature film content."

With the development and announcement of iTV, it is even more important for Apple to demonstrate that it can protect more than just copyrighted music. If it succeeds in placating the film industry, consumers might just plan to replace their DVD player with Apple's iTV player.

Movie studios pressure Apple originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 29 Nov 2006 09:39:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

No one thought that the Indianapolis Colts would lose a game this year, and no one thought Warner Bros. would finish No. 1 at the box office. This weekend was one for the underdog.

"Happy Feet", and animated feature from Warner, a division of Time Warner Inc. (NYSE: TWX) bought in about $42 million. Sony's new James Bond film "Casino Royale" finished second at under $41 million. It was supposed to be the other way around.

Warner made a smart move by lining up approximately $150 million in promotional tie-ins for the film about penguins. Partners include Blockbuster, Comcast, Sears, Burger King, and General Mills.

The film also opening to almost universally good reviews.

Wall Street has been critical of the Warner unit this year. Disasters like " Lady In The Water" by director M. Night Shyamalan have hurt the studio's finances and its credibility as a "hit factory".

But the dancing penguins of "Happy Feet" may be the beginning of a good holiday season for Warner. The studio may even have an office Christmas party this year.

Douglas McIntyre is a partner at 24/7 Wall St.

Dancing penguins finally land Warner Bros. a hit originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 20 Nov 2006 17:07:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

With only two months left in a rough year, Warner Bros. may have caught some good fortune with "The Departed," Martin Scorsese's bloody film about the mob in Boston. The film has brought in $91.1 million in the U.S., and is likely to do well overseas and when it is released on DVD later. Critics loved the film.

It has been a comparatively long time since Warner's last big successes like "Harry Potter" and "The Matrix." Both movies came out with sequels as well, giving them "legs," as they say in L.A.. It's true that "Superman Returns" has brought in almost $200 million this year, but it was also very expensive to make, weighing in at $270 million.

Warner Bros. may be coming to the conclusion that smaller is better. Pictures like "Superman Returns" and "Poseidon" are so costly that getting a decent return may be nearly impossible.

If Warner stays away from very expensive films and has a few modest successes over the next couple of quarters, the management at the studio may avoid being the departed themselves.

Douglas McIntyre is a partner at 24/7 Wall St.

Warner Bros. looks for a strong finish originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 30 Oct 2006 13:52:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Warner Bros. has had some copyright infringement issues with YouTube. According to a report from a London newspaper, Dick Parsons, CEO of Warner parent Time Warner Inc. (NYSE: TWX) thinks it is time to take those problems up with YouTube's new parent, Google, Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG).

Perhaps the chickens have come home to roost earlier than Google had hoped.

Time Warner is concerned, as it should be, that some of its films and TV shows might end up on YouTube without the media company's permission -- and with no revenue to show for the company's considerable efforts.

Entrepreneur Mark Cuban and others have warned that Google would face copyright issues from content providers, particularly now that there is a deep-pocketed parent who can afford damages, assuming of course that the courts would side against YouTube.

Time Warner may have another, competitive agenda. With seven billion videos streamed in the US market during July, AOL is trying to establish itself as a major video platform. Yahoo!, YouTube, and MySpace are all ahead of AOL in video user audience, so anything that might slow the competition has an important tactical purpose.

Google will have to deal with Time Warner on content rights issues. It is likely that the matter will get resolved with some revenue coming to the media giant. But, even if it only slows the pace of YouTube's growth just a little, Time Warner may benefit.

Douglas McIntyre is a partner at 24/7 Wall St.

Warner Bros. has some issues to take up with YouTube/Google originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Sat, 14 Oct 2006 06:22:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

In the second quarter of 2006, Time Warner Inc. (NYSE: TWX) had revenue of $10.7 billion, a 1% increase from the same quarter a year ago. Operating income was $1.8 billion. By the five major operating segments, here is what investors will look for in TWX third quarter results.

In Q2, AOL had revenue of $2.046 billion, off 2% from the year before. Operating income for the unit was down 4% to $336 million. As the big Internet operation begins its transition to an advertising base model, watch for revenue to fall further, to under $2 billion, and for operating income to drop below $300 million. With AOL's audience numbers flat, ad revenue will not make up for the ongoing drop in subscription revenue.

Revenue at the company's cable operations rose 15% in Q2 over the same period a year ago hitting $2.721 billion. Operating income was up 22% to $600 million. Excluding any impact from the company's deal to take on Adelphia subscribers, which should not show up until Q4, revenue at TWX cable should rise to nearly $2.9 billion as high-speed data and VoIP sales continue sharp increases. Operating income could hit $700 million.

The company's film entertainment business should continue to struggle. In Q2 revenue was $2.363 billion, a drop of 10% from the same quarter a year ago. Operating income rose 11% to $141 million. There is no reason to think that home video and studio revenue will improve. The box office has continued to be poor for the studio, which now ranks sixth in receipts among major studios in 2006. Look for revenue to fall below $2.25 billion, and operating income to be below $125 million.

Continue reading Time Warner Q3 earnings preview

Time Warner Q3 earnings preview originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 12 Oct 2006 08:45:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.