Warner Music Group (NYSE: WMG) released its Q4 earnings on Tuesday. Did the numbers have all the makings of a hit? To start off, revenues declined over 1%. That's not hit material, to be certain. Here's something that might get your toes tapping, however: income from continuing operations came in at $0.04 per share, a pretty musical achievement considering that analysts thought that a loss of $0.02 per share would be recorded. And I have to note that the company did pretty good on the free-cash-flow front (I also noted this in a previous piece).

But here's the deal with Warner Music Group: like the music industry in general, it's still trying to adjust to the digital age. Buying music recorded on physical media just isn't where it's at these days, thanks to Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) and others. The music industry would really love to get more money for their content, but because of the popularity of the low-pricing scheme at iTunes and other download sites, I don't think that's going to happen anytime soon. Indeed, when I purchase songs at Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN), I really appreciate that $0.99 price point, and I probably would loathe paying $1.29, $1.39, etc., per tune.

In the end, even with the earnings beat, I'm not sure I could seriously consider Warner Music Group as a great investment idea. Forget that the company's release schedule is reportedly being affected by the recession and that this may shift potential earnings excitement to the latter part of the year -- you've got to remember that this is a low-priced stock in a difficult market environment. As of Tuesday's close, Warner Music Group was trading for less than $3 per share. The stock has been very weak lately, a falling knife, in fact. Best not to attempt a catch of this particular blade.

Disclosure: I don't own any company mentioned; positions can change at any time.

Hey, Warner Music Group beats expectations - but who cares? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 26 Nov 2008 12:50:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

As an Activision Blizzard (NASDAQ: ATVI) shareholder, I'm extremely gratified by the unqualified success of the Guitar Hero franchise. However, I'm none too happy about statements made by Warner Music Group (NYSE: WMG) CEO Edgar Bronfman Jr. who believes that Activision Blizzard should be paying more to license the songs. When I first heard about that, I admit, I became a bit worried. After all, if the publisher has to pony up a higher amount of cash to the music industry, then there could be pressure on the stock.

Well, I'm glad I caught a blog post by Eliot Van Buskirk for Wired over at Portfolio.com. Looks like Activision Blizzard CEO Robert Kotick isn't taking too kindly to those in the music industry who suggest his company needs to share a higher percentage of the spoils. He basically told Bronfman Jr. to chill out, suggesting that the impact of his software platform on music sales for artists that are contained within it almost argues that the publisher shouldn't pay a dime to the music industry.

The shareholder in me says "right on, Bob!" In this digital age, the music industry needs all the help it can get in promoting its artist roster. Gone are the days when consumers opened their wallets for physical CDs. That aspect of the music industry is dying in favor of the iTunes model that powers Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) and its iPod empire. Therefore, I agree with Buskirk's assertion that the boat shouldn't be rocked here. Music companies should just accept the licensing structure as it exists, look at it as a loss leader if they feel that's what it is, and just be satisfied with the ancillary promotion they receive.

Continue reading Activision Blizzard is no hero to Warner Music Group

Activision Blizzard is no hero to Warner Music Group originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 01 Oct 2008 09:45:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Warner Music Group (NYSE: WMG) reported third-quarter earnings numbers on Thursday (for more earnings news, see here). Revenues increased a scant 5% to $848 million. The bottom line saw a net loss of 6 cents per share. According to Earnings.com, analysts were expecting a loss of 18 cents per share. So, expectations were soundly beat.

But should investors be completely enamored of the performance? There were some interesting growth rates sprinkled throughout the release. Indeed, digital revenues increased over 39%, and operating income from continuing operations jumped almost 11%. Free cash flow, as defined by the company (management adds back net cash paid or received for investments excluding short-term investments) soared 63% during the quarter, coming in at $93 million. However, during the nine-month period, free cash flow declined 47% to $37 million. Furthermore, net cash from operations decreased 1% and 6% for the third quarter and nine-month period, respectively.

In my opinion, investors should not be completely enamored of the performance. I see a mixed-bag here. I'd need to see some better long-term growth rates in the cash flow, and healthier top-line appreciation, to become intrigued. Warner Music obviously wants to leverage digital revenues as much as possible and adjust to the new landscape that the music business finds itself currently navigating. Interestingly enough, CEO Edgar Bronfman, Jr. is a bit angry at Activision Blizzard's (NASDAQ: ATVI) Guitar Hero and Viacom's (NYSE: VIA) Rock Band music-gaming systems. According to this article, the CEO thinks that the song-licensing fees for the games are too low. This, of course, shows just how popular and significant music-gaming has become.

Continue reading Warner Music Group rocks the analysts, but is it a buy?

Warner Music Group rocks the analysts, but is it a buy? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 08 Aug 2008 11:45:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Continue reading Closing Bell: Bears win, but cubs eat baby bulls

Closing Bell: Bears win, but cubs eat baby bulls originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 04 Aug 2008 16:05:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Canadian rock band Nickelback latest music act to join Live Nation originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 08 Jul 2008 17:13:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Album sales down 11% halfway through 2008 originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 03 Jul 2008 18:25:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Continue reading Warner Music (WMG) reports larger-than-expected quarterly loss

Warner Music (WMG) reports larger-than-expected quarterly loss originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 08 May 2008 10:05:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Bloomberg reported Thursday that News Corp.'s (NYSE: NWS) MySpace asset wants to leverage its mindshare to sell music. Not a huge leap of logic there -- MySpace is a touchstone for the online-savvy youth, a group that enjoys consuming songs and going to shows. Only problem is, the MySpace generation also intersects with another club -- the iPod generation -- and going against Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) won't be a simple task for Rupert Murdoch and his social-networking empire.

Bloomberg points out an another interesting issue for MySpace -- its buzz appears to be weakening somewhat. I found it very interesting that Facebook is challenging MySpace's dominance in terms of user growth, and that Google (NASDAQ: GOOG) may not be doing as well with its MySpace deal as perhaps it theoretically should be.

This music initiative, called MySpace Music, is intended to aid top-line sales expansion. Remember the days when MySpace was the undisputed god of the web? Hey, it's still a major online brand, no question, but I find it funny how, in certain respects, MySpace just isn't the untouchable social network that it once was. It definitely calls to mind the axiom dictating that the hot domain one year might not be quite the zeitgeist the next; I've certainly been hearing more and more about Facebook than I have about MySpace these days.

Continue reading MySpace wants to tune in to music profits

MySpace wants to tune in to music profits originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 04 Apr 2008 09:58:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

U2 signs long-term deal with Live Nation originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 31 Mar 2008 17:58:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

MAJOR PAPERS:

• John Meriwether, whose Long-Term Capital Management lost $4B in 1998, has new troubles with JWN Partners, as his Meriwether's largest hedge fund has fallen 28%, and another market fund is also down. Investors have until Monday to ask to pull out their investment, the Wall Street Journal reported.
• The Wall Street Journal also reported that failed mortgage provider New Century Financial might be able to get back some of its lost funds by suing its auditor KPMG, according to a court appointed investigator who looked at the company's demise.
• After reaching a deal that allows its customers to access many of Universal Music's songs, the Financial Times reported that Nokia Corporation (NYSE: NOK) is in talks with the other three leading record companies - Sony Corporation's (NYSE: SNE) Sony BMG, EMI and Warner Music Group Corp's (NYSE: WMG) - about giving its customers access to their catalogues.

• Comscore has released its February "U.S. paid clicks" report, according to a source, which reportedly said Google Inc's (NASDAQ: GOOG) paid clicks in the U.S. during the month increased 3% year-over-year; however, the 'slight, slight improvement' from January may not actually be, the Silicon Alley Insider reported, since Comscore did not adjust for Leap Year. Google's paid clicks in December were up 12% and up 27% in November.

Newspaper wrap-up: John Meriwether is back; New hedge fund problems, angry investors originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 27 Mar 2008 08:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Continue reading Warner Music sales growth fails to hide quarterly losses

Warner Music sales growth fails to hide quarterly losses originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 08 Feb 2008 15:17:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Rumors now frequently circulate about massive music acts leaving their long-term record labels. Last spring Paul McCartney defected from EMI after 45 years to join Starbucks' (NASDAQ: SBUX) Hear Music label. Madonna left Warner Music Group (NYSE: WMG) last fall. Other artists have followed suit, while some who are still signed have started speaking out against their labels. In this most recent case, Irish rock band U2 is rumored to be leaving Vivendi's Universal Music Group to sign up with Live Nation (NYSE: LYV).

Although I wouldn't blame the artists for leaving their labels, as long as it is in their best interests and increases fans accessibility to the music, it is certainly going to affect the record industry long-term if the defections continue. At the same time, many critics and bloggers would point out that the acts switching labels are already past their prime -- their big hits and money-making lies with albums that came while they were at the labels. That may be true for acts like McCartney, U2, and Madonna, but the best example of this -- Radiohead -- is hardly through making the huge hits they enjoyed while with a major record label.

Radiohead, if you remember, is that "little" band that caused such a stir last October when it decided to release its new album, In Rainbows, to fans in a pay-what-you-want model. When the album was released on CD earlier this year it hit #1 in numerous charts around the world.

Obviously, none of these acts would have achieved such huge successes without major record labels, and it is impossible to say that the future of the record industry is without music labels. These rumors and the actual occurrences indicate that companies like Live Nation and Starbucks, while not necessarily oriented primarily for music distribution, are making better gains than the labels. This will not be ignored for long so the rumors may cease, and only indicates the movement music acts are making for the time being.

U2 rumored to leave major record label originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 07 Feb 2008 15:41:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Led Zeppelin to enter the digital market next month originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 15 Oct 2007 18:09:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Universal recruits record companies to compete with Apple's (AAPL) iTunes originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 12 Oct 2007 16:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Madonna's Warner (WMG) departure: Are artists taking back control? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 11 Oct 2007 15:20:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

• Madonna, the original material girl, is signing a 10-year $120M deal with concert promoter Live Nation (NYSE: LYV), leaving Warner Music Group (NYSE: WMG) in her wake, reported the Wall Street Journal.
• According to the Wall Street Journal's "Heard on the Street" column, Progressive Corporation (NYSE: PGR) is struggling due to competitors' pricing, safer cars, and a struggling economy, to name a few factors.
• The Financial Times reported that General Electric Company (NYSE: GE) will decide whether to sell its 80% stake in NBC Universal after the Beijing Olympics in August 2008, according to sources.
• Tenaris (NYSE: TS), the maker of steel pipes for oil and gas exploration, has ruled out any possible sale of itself to ArcelorMittal (NYSE: MT) , the world's biggest steel producer, reported the Financial Times.

• The New York Post reported that UBS AG (NYSE: UBS) has fired David Martin, its head of interest-rate trading, and James Stehli, the head of its collateralized debt obligation unit, due to the fallout from the mortgage meltdown.
• BP PLC (NYSE: BP) CEO Tony Hayward will today unveil plans to reduce bureaucracy and duplication of management at the oil giant, reported the Telegraph.

Newspaper wrap-up: Madonna headed to Live Nation originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 11 Oct 2007 09:15:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Madonna is on her way out the door at Warner Music Group (NYSE: WMG). She is being drawn away by a $120 million, ten year offer from Live Nation (NYSE: LYV), the large concert promoter.

Under the terms of the deal, according to The Wall Street Journal, Madonna will make three albums with the concert promoter. Live Nation will also promote merchandise and the licensing of her name.

Several industry observers say that Live Nation cannot make its money back on album sales. It would require close to 50 million units. But, by making money on other lines of business, like sponsorship of tours, the company may well be able to make a profit.

Warmer Music Group probably decided that the deal did not make economic sense and let Madonna go. But, that would be short-sighted. With CD sales falling and more revenue coming from digital downloads, WMG shares have lost almost two-thirds of their value in a little over a year. The stock now trades just above $11.

Digital sales do not yield music publishers as much per song as CDs do. Warner has to come up with some other way to make money. Taking a chance on Madonna's concert sales and sponsorships would have been a good first step out of a hole for Warner. But, they did not take it.

Douglas A. McIntyre is a partner at 24/7 Wall St.

As Madonna prepares to leave Warner (WMG), firm faces tough future originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 11 Oct 2007 06:16:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Hard-Fi band markets album without artwork -- the beginning of a trend? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 10 Sep 2007 18:28:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

It must be that Steve Jobs got the top job at Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT). He has been crying for the music industry to offer music without copyright protection, and the world's largest retailer has just become his best friend.

Wall-Mart's large online music store will begin to offer songs that can be played anywhere - transferred from device to device. The songs will be sold for 94 cents per track and, according to Reuters, "the new format let customers play music on almost any device, including iPod, phones and Microsoft Corps's Zune portable media player."

The announcement may be bad news for two large music companies that have not already decided to move full-speed into DRM-free downloads, Sony BMG and Warner Music Group (NYSE: WMG). They fear that if music can be moved anywhere and shared, that it will cut into units sales from customers who cannot now get songs from friends and neighbors. Champions of open downloads like Mr. Jobs say that CDs are already routinely ripped so that most digital music is not protected anyway.

Music publishers continue to be pounded by the industry's new model. They earn less on downloads from services like Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) iTunes than they do from CDs, but sales of the physical discs are falling fast as consumers move away from the format.

Good for Apple and bad from companies like Warner.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Wal-Mart (WMT) presses the music industry originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 21 Aug 2007 09:42:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Warner Music Group Inc. (NYSE: WMG), whose roster of artists includes Madonna, the White Stripes and the Red Hot Chili Peppers, today reported that its third quarter net loss widened as sales continued to shift away from CDs to digital sales.

The company lost $17 million, or 12 cents per share, compared with $14 million, or 10 cents, the New York-based company said in a press release. Revenue fell 2% to $804 million. Excluding one-time items, profit was 20 cents. Wall Street analysts, who excluded these types of charges, expected a loss of 14 cents on revenue of $836 million.

Digital revenue was a bright spot, rising 29% to $119 million. The company's recorded music, however, performed poorly, dropping 4% to $653 million.

Shares of Warner Music Group have dropped almost 52% this year, even though Wall Street cheered the company's decision not to bid for EMI Group Plc. The shares, though, have recently rebounded and were poised to open higher today as investors expressed confidence that Warner Music will be able to survive the upheaval caused by the digital music revolution.

Warner Music Group (WMG) earnings stunk originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 07 Aug 2007 09:29:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.