The stock market has taken some big hits lately with the Dow down 387 - still preaching calm and change certainly being the most notable sign of fear amid many down days. But why? Why the selling? Why the fear? The reason is so simple and cannot be stated more clearly than reminding you all of your childhood, playing with your friends, when all of a sudden someone yelled "Last one out is a rotten egg!"
Yes the story line is clear enough; we have all heard about sub-prime loans, Alt-A loans, falling home values, falling housing starts, shrinking liquidity, Federal deficits, higher oil prices, unsustainable foreign market growth, consumer demand coming to an end, and you can contribute a few more of your own boogie men to round out the list. These are all real issues our economy will have to contend with and I do not scoff at any of them. However, our economy has sustained itself though much worse and it bothers me when I see hyper market activity putting more money in the hands of brokers who make money when people are trading, whether it be up or down, they just like a higher volume of activity.
As the market reached ever new highs, we started hearing that things may have heated up too much. Sure they heated up to much, but volume started to slow also as people became more cautious and volume also slows down during summer vacation months. Slowing volume (less trading) is no good for Wall Street. So if we are not trading up then we should be trading down and that is exactly what we are hearing now and sure enough volume is back up and fees are being collected.
I do most of my transactions online on my own, but I put a little money in an account with a full service broker friend of mine, because he is a friend, and a good sounding board for some of my ideas. Sure enough he calls the other day to discuss what is happening in the market, specifically some great 'put' opportunities. After going through the numbers I asked him if he was doing anything now -- what was he investing in? He said he was not, he was keeping his cash for now waiting for an even better buying opportunity later.
This bothered me! Here he was suggesting his client (me) buy when he personally thought it was better to wait! I hate this, yet it is so common. I know my friend felt awkward when I confronted him about this, but, I let it be, and he gets it, because we have discussed this before. In his defense, he was bringing to my attention something I might want to know about, and would do, that most investors would not -- naked puts. The majority of the time my friend is not so much a broker as he is a financial adviser, and helps less knowledgeable folks set up diversified investment plans. For this I would recommend him.
For stock picking, I would not recommend anyone that is not a household name and those are few and far between but my "pals" Warren and Carl are not too bad. If you are afraid of being the rotten egg, or more importantly, have invested in questionable stocks, than by all means adjust your portfolio so that you can sleep better at night. There are plenty of good buys right now. It is not important if the market is up or down it is important to invest for the long term. The last one out is not the rotten egg, the short term thinkers are the rotten eggs. It is also worth re-reading Who says the stock market is too cheap? for some market perspective.
Those of you who are new to BloggingStocks can check out my other stories and read Chasing Value or Serious Money to find more potential opportunities and verify my track record as well - INCLUDING ANY BAD CALLS.
Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture & planning firm.



