Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) waited too long to take new money. If should have gotten the capital long ago the way Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) did with Warren Buffett.

But, John Mack, the MS CEO, thought he might go it alone or get better terms, By waiting, he damaged his shareholders more than he could imagine. And, it may get worse.

The good news is that, according to The New York Times, the $9 billion coming from Mitsubishi UFJ will be protected by the federal government. That means the deal is likely to close.

The very bad news is that, according to the FT, "Under the new terms being discussed, the entire $9bn would be in the form of convertible preferred stock, that would eventually convert into common stock at a price that is expected to be between $20 and $25." Under the old terms, the conversion was at above $35.

The latest formula means that current shareholders face more dilution.

At the end of the day, the news has to be viewed in some positive light. MS will survive. But, the cost was awful. On September 8, Morgan traded at $43. No one can imagine that Mack did not know he had trouble then. It was only four weeks ago. He should have done a quick deal while he had the chance. By waiting, he let market fear, and probably some short selling, take his shares below $10.

Mack allowed Morgan to get into the trouble in the first place. He has been in upper level Wall St management for 30 years. He arrogance made him believe that he could get tremendous terms in bringing in new capital.

He was wrong on that account. But, his compensation will probably be fabulous next year.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

This post is part of a series in which TheStockAdvisors.com asked financial experts to name their top stock pick if McCain or if Obama wins the election.

"Obama's tax plan would give greater relief to the lower and middle classes; one retailer that would benefit from this is American Eagle Outfitters (NYSE: AEO)," says John Reese, editor of Validea, which follows the investment criteria of "legendary" investors such as Warren Buffett and Peter Lynch.

"Consumers have had to tighten their wallets and purses because of the slowing economy and rising food and fuel prices. Breaks for average Americans would be welcome news for retailers, which have sputtered amid the downturn.

"In the event of a retail surge, this teen-focused Pittsburgh-based clothing chain should be at the head of the line.

"American Eagle gets approval from two of my Guru Strategies -- computer models that are each based on the published approach of a different Wall Street great. What's more, the two strategies that like the firm are modeled after two of the greatest gurus, Warren Buffett and Peter Lynch.

"My conservative Buffett-inspired model looks for stocks with a lengthy history of steadily increasing earnings, as well as a conservative balance sheet.

"Eagle has grown earnings per share in eight of the past ten years, with EPS rising from $0.25 to $1.82 in that time, meeting the first criterion. In addition, the firm has no long-term debt, which my Buffett model loves.

Another good potential Treasury Secretary neither brought up is Michael Bloomberg. The founder of Bloomberg LP (where I worked for seven years) clearly knows the markets. He's rich and has shown savvy in navigating New York City's political landmines that Washington should be a walk in the park. Too bad he's got his heart set on a third time as mayor.

My colleague (sort of) James Cramer has suddenly turned into a giant, growling bear. He has been moving in that direction for a few months and now he thinks we all should go into hibernation for five years. He is so wrong!

First of all, it is never a good idea to make decisions while you are in panic mode. Second, Jim's guidance is moving with the market so he is not making any serious prognostication, just staying slightly ahead of the mob. He might as well stick his finger in the air.

Are things bad? Yes! Could they get worse? Yes! Would I run for the hills? ABSOLUTELY NOT! Even though I agree we are in for some tough times, I think the market is reacting to more than meets the eye (see All bets are off -- stocks' irrational downside).

If I recall correctly, 50% of the significant gains in the Dow Jones Industrial Average were made on 7% of the up days. You have to be in the game to win the game. If you are in panic mode you should alter your investment portfolio so that you can rest easy. Diversification helps and speculation hurts.

Most people who have been investing for any length of time have heard of dollar cost averaging. This is where you put a certain amount of money into an index fund regularly each month, so that when the market is up you are buying fewer shares at higher prices and when the market is on sale, like it may be today, you are buying more shares at a lower price. This allows you to grow your portfolio consistently while paying a reasonable price for the shares you add -- on average.

There is a lot of bad news affecting the stock market and prices are falling for some very important reasons. These include reduced expectations for earnings, higher unemployment, a lack of liquidity, a housing market that has not bottomed yet, federal spending gone wild, and the collapse of some venerable financial institutions to name a select few.

The Standard & Poor's 500 Index: started the year (Dec 28, 2007) at 1,478.49 and as of Friday October 3 it was 1,099.23, down 25.7%.

There are concerns about recession and even a depression and the global market for most commodities has softened.

Given all this how can I believe that the market is becoming irrational to the downside and values abound?

For one reason I know that many people are selling stocks out of fear of the market going lower and they do not want to be the last one out of the pool. That is a legitimate reason to sell but has nothing to do with the intrinsic value of a company or stock. If the index is being sold off then that means the good are being sold along with the bad.

Another factor pressuring the market relates directly to tight liquidity. I recently refinanced my home and the bank wanted me to reduce my home equity line to comply with its much tighter lending requirements. I sold some stock to accommodate them but this had nothing to do with stock valuations. I also sold some stocks and funds to buy down a commercial real estate loan in the past month. I had no pressure to do so because the loan to value is very low, but we are looking to acquire additional property as distress sales turn up and want to keep our powder dry.

Many people have been allowing their credit card debts to increase but facing little hope of growth in the stock market; those that can are selling stocks to buy down their debts where they can. This too has nothing to do with the intrinsic value of the stocks they are selling.

The market is bouncing around with every bit of news leaked from the Congress as well as company warnings and Federal reports. 'My pal Warren' is frequently being asked his opinion about the stock market and his 'stock answer' is that he ignores the overall market and its daily gyrations and focuses on individual investments and price (value).

Buffett drew plenty of attention this week when he invested $3 billion dollars in General Electric (NYSE: GE) preferred shares set at a permanent 10% return with a buyout clause allowing GE to get them back at a 10% premium. In addition Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.A) received warrants to buy an additional $3 billion worth of stock anytime in the next five years at a strike price of $22.50.

The company recently announced that it would curtail its stock buyback plan in favor of maintaining its dividend and its rare Triple-A financial rating. Given the vote of confidence expressed by Buffett (he got a great deal again) and the dividend yield of about 5% this stock is just screaming at me to buy more, but at what price.

Well, I have no crystal ball, but if you can buy GE at something less then the BRK.A warrant price and below its ten- year price you have to at least give it consideration.



Even though GE warned that earnings would fall below expectations for the quarter, (they report October 10, 2008, in one week), they are still earning more than they were the last time they were at this price. As a matter of fact, the metrics are far better now than they have been, according to this weeks Barron's recent follow-up story dated September 29, 2008.

They report that revenue has gone from $13 per share in 2000 to $19 now; cash-flow has increased from $2.00 to $3.30; earnings are up from $1.29 a share to $2.00 and the dividend has escalated to $1.25 from $0.57, yet the stock is 50% off recent highs.

As I have stated many times in other stories, if you are looking for an alternative to bonds or low paying treasuries that will give you a very healthy yield and the potential of sizable appreciation GE is a place to look. And now you can call Warren Buffett partner...sort of.

UPDATE: GE closed today at $21.57. Disclosure: We bought in at $22.00.

Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture & planning firm. He writes the columns Chasing Value and Serious Money. Disclosure: I own shares of BRK.B & GE.

Another "respected" American company looks to be in a bit of financial trouble. You'll recall that Goldman Sachs Group (NYSE: GS) recently received a $5 billion capital infusion from Warren Buffett. And today, the once-admired General Electric Company (NYSE: GE) accepted a $3 billion check from Buffett in exchange for preferred stock paying a 10% dividend and warrants to buy $3 billion common shares of GE at a strike price of $22.25 for five years.

This comes as the Credit Default Swap (CDS) market is charging GE a rapidly rising premium to insure its bonds. CDSs protecting against a default by GE Capital Corp. for five years climbed as much as 1.25 percentage points to 7.4% -- and last traded at 7%. This increase in perceived risk is happening as GE suspended its stock buyback, shifting capital to protect its dividend and AAA credit rating.

Will these moves be enough to protect GE's credit rating or is getting 40% of its pretax profit from financial services too risky? Who will be the next company to be stricken by this financial crisis? And which of these weak companies will pay this steep price for Warren Buffett's money?

Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter. He owns GE shares and has no financial interest in Goldman shares..

Wall Street analysts are known for being too optimistic about earnings at the companies that they cover, but the problem may be getting out of control.

According to The Wall Street Journal, "Collectively, analysts expect S&P 500 earnings to expand by 23.9% in 2009, according to Thomson Reuters. The index does include a number of banks."

The prediction may be why analysts do not have a very good reputation with many investors. Well-regarded experts from Warren Buffett to Jack Welch believe next year could be one of the worst economic periods in decades.

Part of the thinking among analysts is that spending for consumer durables will be good. Since gas and food prices are still fairly high and consumer spending is on life support, it is very difficult to see how that point of view could be justified.

Analysts cost big banks and brokerage firms a lot of money. If the financial trouble on Wall Street gets worse, they may be among the next wave of employees fired. If their forecasts are so ridiculous, that will make a lot of sense.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 24/7 Wall St.

It's official: Main Street does not believe that Wall Street deserves a $700 billion rescue from Congress.

By a margin of 55% to 31% in a Bloomberg/Los Angeles Times poll, American said that they don't believe the government should "bail out private companies with taxpayer dollars, even if their collapse could damage the economy," according to Bloomberg News. That's a stunning rebuke to the Bush administration.

Though Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke are thumping their chests demanding that Congress act immediately to head off the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression, members of Congress are not so sure. Senate Banking Committee Chairman Chris Dodd (D-CT) indicated to reporters yesterday that passage of the bill this year was not a sure thing. Maybe that's political posturing, but it should scare investors nonetheless.

Democrats and Republicans are getting hammered by outraged constituents questioning why the government should bail out sleazy Wall Street bankers and not lift a finger to help homeowners hurt by the credit crunch. The American people have nothing against people getting rich. They do resent those, however, those who they believe cut corners, which is exactly how Wall Street got into this mess. Anti-bailout sentiment is so thick you can cut it with a knife.