To quote one of my college professors (with thick Chicago accent) "Ya pays yer nickle 'n ya takes ya bes' shot." This year I wrote over 200 stories and reviewed even more stocks. Going over all of this material I came up with the ones listed here as my four best and four worst of the year.

• Dow Jones Industrial Average: 12,501.52 is Up to 13,359.61 (+6.86%)
• NASDAQ Composite Index: 2,425.57 is Up to 2,676.79 (+10.36%)
• Standard & Poor's 500 Index: 1,424.73 is Up to 1,476.37 (+3.62%)

Continue reading Chasing Value: My best and worst picks of 2007

Chasing Value: My best and worst picks of 2007 originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 31 Dec 2007 15:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Washington Mutual . . . ahem . . . WaMu (NYSE: WM) has just let the other shoe drop, or at least shareholders are hoping that is the case. After yesterday's market close, it announced a $1.6 billion write-down, a reduction in the dividend from 56 cents per share to 15 cents (73%), 2,600 layoffs, downsizing of loan departments, closing of sales offices, closing its broker-dealer business, WaMu Capital Corp., as well as its mortgage banker warehouse lending unit, and more.

It is ironic that Washington Mutual has changed its name to WaMu. Now that it has changed its name, it just needs to leave town as most anyone would do after being disgraced. Seems like in so many respects, that is what it's doing, slinking away. It may very well slink into the arms of an acquisition by a better-managed company like JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM) or Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC).

I hope I have not jinxed JPM and WFC with my compliments . . . hmm.

Since I have been a shareholder and major supporter of Washington Mutual for many years and have made one of my biggest blunders touting the bank as an investment opportunity, I have my own shame too...although I refrain from running or hiding. The truth will set you free: I made a big mistake!

Continue reading WaMu's $1.6 billion write-down: Oh the shame of it all

WaMu's $1.6 billion write-down: Oh the shame of it all originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 11 Dec 2007 13:20:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

This is the fourth update on the stock price status of the first seventeen Chasing Value companies. Closing prices are from September 14, 2007.

The first quarter produced amazing results but the second quarter was downright sad. No one will be surprised to see that anything touching constuction or finance took a bath. I own most of these stocks, so if you do too, I feel your pain. Anyone considering my commentary should "do their homework" too, as James Cramer says on his Mad Money TV show. These recommendations are from the first and second quarter 2007 and I have linked to the original stories.

February 16, 2007: Chasing value: Wells Fargo: Wells Fargo & Company (NYSE: WFC) closed at $35.66 down from $35.76: a loss of -0.02%, even money.

February 23, 2007: Chasing value: Anadarko Petroleum - got it! Anadarko Petroleum Company (NYSE: APC) closed at $50.58 up from $40.84: A gain of 23.85%.

March 3, 2007: Chasing value: Aluminum Corporation of China ADS: Aluminum Corp. of China (ADS) (NYSE: ACH) closed at $60.95 up from $22.98: A gain of 165%

March 20, 2007: Chasing Value: Anglo American - Inflation hedge & more: Anglo American plc (NASDAQ: AAUK) closed at $28.90 up from $24.65: A gain of 17.24%

March 23, 2007 Chasing Value: Cemex and LaFarge look solid: CEMEX S.A. B de C.V. (ADR) (NYSE: CX) closed at $29.17 down from $34.92: A loss of -16.47%. LaFarge (ADS) (NYSE: LR) closed at $37.80 from $39.02: A loss of -3%.

Cemex sank with the continuous reports of the deteriorating housing market in the United States. In the meantime it continues to move forward with the integration of Rinker, the largest supplier of construction materials in Australia. This makes Cemex the largest in the world and sets the stage for continued growth in Southeast Asia. It also is continuing to focus on reducing debt.

Of all the stocks I have written about in the Chasing Value section, I feel that this one suffered the most from guilt by association. I believe it was fairly valued before and it is on sale now. This company, with it's PEG ratio at .83 and lowered, P/E, P/S, P/B (SEE: AOL Money & Finance) has a ROE over 22 and pays about a 2% dividend yield.

Continue reading Chasing Value update 4: Some great some not: ACH, BSC, CX, DUK, JNJ, USG

Chasing Value update 4: Some great some not: ACH, BSC, CX, DUK, JNJ, USG originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 17 Sep 2007 10:36:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Plenty of investment guru's have suggested buying on fear and selling when greed reaches its pinnacle. Well I think the fear side is self evident but I'm not hearing about many analysts who are brave enough to buy right now. As a matter of fact I only hear that this would be a very foolish time to invest in the financial sector, in particular, any stocks with sub-prime or "Alt-A" mortgage exposure.

For this reason, contrarian that I am, I thought I would speak out about my recent BAD CALLS, or at least very premature calls, and start tracking them for all to see -- accepting the ribbing, tomato-throwing and blunt comments about the error of my ways.

I own four of the five stocks I will be following for the next year, Bear Stearns (NYSE: BSC), IndyMac Bancorp Inc. (NYSE: IMB), Popular Inc. (NASDAQ: BPOP), and Washington Mutual (NYSE: WM). I wrote favorable comments on each and in the case of WM, more than once. Needless to say, I am under water on all of them. I do not own Countrywide Financial (NYSE: CFC) but it will make for a fine pace car in the middle of this storm.

Continue reading Buy on fear today? Bear Stearns (BSC), Countrywide (CFC), IndyMac (IMB), Popular (BPOP), Washington Mutual (WM)

Buy on fear today? Bear Stearns (BSC), Countrywide (CFC), IndyMac (IMB), Popular (BPOP), Washington Mutual (WM) originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 10 Aug 2007 15:15:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Yesterday I bought some more shares of Washington Mutual (NYSE: WM) at $39. Basically, I had to put my money where my mouth is because I have written about it as a safe haven and a defensive stock so often. Now with the sub-prime lending ruckus filling the headlines and driving the stock price down I thought I would take advantage of the fear in the market place. This is another wonderful stock for long term investors.

If you have money in a WaMu CD at the Online rates (which are higher than walk-in) you are receiving a smaller return on your investment than if you bought the stock which currently is yielding 5.56% - and you have no future appreciation.

There is no question that WaMu could drop further and that may have been able to buy it at a lower price. I have no idea where the bottom is, but for those of you interested in watching this one and possibly seeing long-term gains plus current income consider the following data points:

Continue reading Chasing Value: Washington Mutual - WaMu - (WM)

Chasing Value: Washington Mutual - WaMu - (WM) originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 11 Apr 2007 14:19:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Anglo American plc (ADR) (NASDAQ: AAUK) is really a United Kingdom based company with no American history, although a long history it has. We are continuing our search for value stocks as we very methodically place new money in the market. Our first purchase was an old favorite: Washington Mutual, Inc. (NYSE:WM). We recently acquired it at $40 per share after following it down from $47. Yesterday, Georges Yared posted Washington Mutual: A ridiculously cheap pick in sub-prime panic and we agree with him totally....take a look at the depressed price, the 5.3% yield and more.

We like the Anglo American company and the stock for numerous reasons. It came to our attention initially because it has a 1.17 price-to-sales ratio (P/S), a price-to-book ratio of 1.29 (P/B), and a yield over 2%. To go along with those metrics it has been growing at 15% to 20% over the last few years as the world demand for gold and platinum has increased. You can check out the fundamentals at AOL Money & Finance as a starting point for your own research if you are interested.

Continue reading Chasing Value: Anglo American - Inflation hedge & more

Chasing Value: Anglo American - Inflation hedge & more originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 20 Mar 2007 18:45:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

I have written several stories questioning James Cramer's investing approach and stock picks, but I can tell you all that there are many words of wisdom he has shared as well. One thought that I have cherished is that "there is always a bull market somewhere." Continuing on that train of thought I know that Warren Buffett has wondered out loud why people get so happy when the market prices rise. When he goes shopping (investing) he wants to find a bargain, and pay less not more for that which he seeks. So with that in mind I present some stocks that are looking mighty appealing after Tuesday's significant stock market drop. At least put them on your watch list after checking them out.

For Starters:

Aluminum Corporation of China ADS (NYSE: ACH) P/E = 7.82, P/S = 0.65, P/B = 0.62, yield = 5.57% Bought this one yesterday at $22.00, it closed at 22.60 but has jumped up in early morning trading.

Anadarko Petroleum Corp. (NYSE: APC) P/E = 6.87, P/S = 2.76, P/B = 1.41, yield = 0.88% I Had to list this one after my two recent write-ups including last Friday's Chasing value: Anadarko Petroleum - got it! Bought this one last week at $40.00. It closed at $39.98 on a small drop and was back over my water line in after hours trading.

Duke Energy (NYSE: DUK) P/E = 12.50, P/S = 1.16, P/B = 0.96, yield = 4.19% Own this in my Roth IRA. Yesterday it closed at 19.63 down slightly, but in dubious markets you must own some utilities.

Washington Mutual (NYSE: WM) P/E = 11.64, P/S = 1.95, P/B = 1.61, yield = 4.98% Own this in my Roth IRA also. Yesterday it closed at $42.36 down 0.98 (-2.26%_, but it has a monster yield and has been trading in a tight range for several years, while earnings have grown. It may also be a sweet takeover target and has been mentioned periodically as such in business journals.

Two More:

Fidelity National Financial 'A' (NYSE: FNF) P/E = 9.96, P/S = 0.67, P/B = 1.62, yield = 4.94% I do not own this stock but I have been tracking it for a year. The numbers speak for themselves. Looking at it's ten year chart indicates it has generally demonstrated consistant growth. Yesterday it closed at $24.26 off 3 cents. FNF is a title insurance company, which explains it's high valuation during the recent boom years, but now that the housing market has come back down to earth FNF's stock is worthy of consideration.

Old Republic International (NYSE: ORI) P/E = 11.59, P/S = 1.41, P/B = 1.23, yield = 2.70% Another insurance company that has been around a long time. I picked it from my watch list for possible addition to yours. It has a profit margin higher than the P/E of 14.49%. Given that It's has a capitalization is only $5.14 billion, it could easily be acquired by a larger company seeking predictable earnings and growth. The 52 week price variation is $3.66 so this is a stable company for uncertain times. Yesterday it closed at $22.23 down pennies.

Check out my other posts for BloggingStocks here.

Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the vice president for design and research at an architecture & planning firm.

Optimists view +2 : Down markets are for bargain hunters! originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 28 Feb 2007 17:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Ninety days have passed since I posted Scary market -- any safe stocks? and Still scary market -- more SAFE HAVENS.

When I wrote these original posts the market was on shaky ground with higher fuel prices, interest rate uncertainty, housing market questions, common summer market doldrums, and concerns about upcoming earnings reports, consumer spending, and inflation. Well, we made it through this valley of worry with fuel prices declining, interest rates stabilizing, employment and consumer confidence robust, and reported earnings primarily to the upside. The stock market has been riding this wave upward with the DJIA hitting news highs.

I revisited the stock suggestions I made in these posts after thirty days and decided to continue to track them. I believe in some level of accountability if one is blabbing (or blogging) about a subject, and especially since I have been writing for the Blogging Stocks site. All of the stocks have moved up in the last sixty days, but since my original posts in July, the share prices of six have moved up and two have gone down. I have not changed my mind about any of these companies or their stocks during this period.

We considered buying some more United Parcel Service, Inc. (NYSE:UPS) and did not; we added to our position in the Southern Company (NYSE:SO) instead, which has done well, and Huaneng Power International, Inc. (NYSE:HNP) which has done even better; see: GOOG is OK but HNP could be better!

They are listed in the order I mentioned them in my earlier posts.

Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (NYSE:BRK.B) closed Tuesday at $3,560 up from $2,995.

Washington Mutual, Inc. (NYSE:WM) closed Tuesday at $43.00 down from $45.50.

Continue reading Market not so scary any more ... or is it?

Market not so scary any more ... or is it? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 15 Nov 2006 15:50:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.