Several independent economists have said they expect a big U.S. bank to fail. It may be easy to ignore them because they are not affiliated with any of the large institutions that monitor financial companies. But now the former chief economist of the IMF says one of America's big banks will probably not make it.

According to Reuters, "The worst of the global financial crisis is yet to come and a large U.S. bank will fail in the next few months as the world's biggest economy hits further troubles, former IMF chief economist Kenneth Rogoff said." Rogoff is currently an economist at Harvard.

The analysis pointing to the bank failure is based on the facts that the credit markets and housing situation will get much worse. Current earnings from banks and brokerage houses indicate that the prediction may well be true.

Washington Mutual (NYSE: WM) reported its calendar first quarter results yesterday after the close. The bank reported $0.86 for the quarter, down $0.12 from a year ago. The shares are reacting favorably , up over 5% for three reasons:

First reason is the level of sub-prime mortgage loan write-offs came in at $113 million for the quarter, which caused the earnings per share to be at $0.86, in-line with consensus. The $113 million write-off was less than many investors feared.

The second reason is that Washington Mutual raised its annual dividend from $2.16 to $2.20 per share. Although not a huge increase, the symbolism of the raise surprised many investors and analysts. It was also the 47th consecutive quarter of WM raising its dividend.

These four companies are on my watch list and I love them all. There are plenty of reasons to love my Dubya's; WD-40 (WDFC), Washington Mutual (WM), Wells Fargo Bank (WFC), and Wrigley (WWY) and I would be delighted to own them all...that is if Warren does not beat me to them.

They all pay higher than average dividends, have little or no debt, long illustrious histories, proven successful management, profitability, clear understandable businesses, and much more. I currently own Washington Mutual in my Roth IRA. Warren Buffett owns Wells Fargo and it has been reported he may be buying more. WD-40 and Wrigley are exactly the type of companies that Buffett would buy out in their entirety at the right price.

It is important to have a watch list because companies like these are not often on sale. Like Mr. Buffett I always want to buy at bargain prices. It is possible to make money buying them when they are not on sale but why not have the margin of safety (an important Benjamin Graham concept); there is no rush. Some of the companies/stocks I purchased in the last year were not available at bargain prices for many years prior. PATIENCE, PATIENCE--I watched Federal Express, UPS and Starbucks sadly wanting in but not having the right opportunity.