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Chasing Value update 4: Some great some not: ACH, BSC, CX, DUK, JNJ, USG

This is the fourth update on the stock price status of the first seventeen Chasing Value companies. Closing prices are from September 14, 2007.

The first quarter produced amazing results but the second quarter was downright sad. No one will be surprised to see that anything touching constuction or finance took a bath. I own most of these stocks, so if you do too, I feel your pain. Anyone considering my commentary should "do their homework" too, as James Cramer says on his Mad Money TV show. These recommendations are from the first and second quarter 2007 and I have linked to the original stories.

February 16, 2007: Chasing value: Wells Fargo: Wells Fargo & Company (NYSE: WFC) closed at $35.66 down from $35.76: a loss of -0.02%, even money.

February 23, 2007: Chasing value: Anadarko Petroleum - got it! Anadarko Petroleum Company (NYSE: APC) closed at $50.58 up from $40.84: A gain of 23.85%.

March 3, 2007: Chasing value: Aluminum Corporation of China ADS: Aluminum Corp. of China (ADS) (NYSE: ACH) closed at $60.95 up from $22.98: A gain of 165%

March 20, 2007: Chasing Value: Anglo American - Inflation hedge & more: Anglo American plc (NASDAQ: AAUK) closed at $28.90 up from $24.65: A gain of 17.24%

March 23, 2007 Chasing Value: Cemex and LaFarge look solid: CEMEX S.A. B de C.V. (ADR) (NYSE: CX) closed at $29.17 down from $34.92: A loss of -16.47%. LaFarge (ADS) (NYSE: LR) closed at $37.80 from $39.02: A loss of -3%.

Cemex sank with the continuous reports of the deteriorating housing market in the United States. In the meantime it continues to move forward with the integration of Rinker, the largest supplier of construction materials in Australia. This makes Cemex the largest in the world and sets the stage for continued growth in Southeast Asia. It also is continuing to focus on reducing debt.

Of all the stocks I have written about in the Chasing Value section, I feel that this one suffered the most from guilt by association. I believe it was fairly valued before and it is on sale now. This company, with it's PEG ratio at .83 and lowered, P/E, P/S, P/B (SEE: AOL Money & Finance) has a ROE over 22 and pays about a 2% dividend yield.

Continue reading Chasing Value update 4: Some great some not: ACH, BSC, CX, DUK, JNJ, USG

Kramer said a possible 25% market collapse?

You really should watch Hilary Kramer: Market has further to fall, but there is opportunity in KDN, CBI, ACH to get some market perspective. The video was posted on August 21, 2007 and she makes some very good stock recommendations. Over the past 18 months that I have been looking at her picks versus those of James Cramer, I have found that you would have done better with Hilary.

While giving her full credit for her stock picking and market coverage I find I must strongly disagree with a statement she made. Cautioning viewers that " There is going to be a meltdown" is not overly alarming, but I take great exception to her stating that "This market can go down 25%." She shared her fear that there are 9000 hedge funds and that 3000 might close down.

It is possible that people may panic in certain circumstances and the market can stray into irrational short-term behavior once again, but I find her reasoning a little soft. Let's assume that the 9000 hedge funds own 50% of the total equity in the stock market (they don't) and one third go out of business, that would equate to a 15% collapse of value (unscientific, I know, but there is some correlation).

Continue reading Kramer said a possible 25% market collapse?

Chasing Value update 3: SCOREBOARD BABY!

This is the third update on the stock price status of the first six Chasing Value companies. Closing prices are from July 5, 2007. I keep track of my recommendations and thought I would share the results as I do most everything else in my posts. Anyone considering my commentary should "do their homework" too, as James Cramer rants on his Mad Money TV show. These recommendations are all from the first quarter 2007.

February 16, 2007: Chasing value: Wells Fargo: Wells Fargo & Company (NYSE: WFC) closed at $35.32 down from $35.76: a loss of 1%.

February 23, 2007: Chasing value: Anadarko Petroleum - got it! Anadarko Petroleum Company (NYSE: APC) closed at $52.40 up from $40.84: A gain of 28.3%.

March 3, 2007: Chasing value: Aluminum Corporation of China ADS: Aluminim Corp. of China (ADS) (NYSE: ACH) closed at $46.16 up from $22.98: A gain of 101%

March 20, 2007: Chasing Value: Anglo American - Inflation hedge & more: Anglo American plc (NASDAQ: AAUK) closed at $30.98 up from $24.65: A gain of 25.68%

March 23, 2007 Chasing Value: Cemex and LaFarge look solid: CEMEX S.A. B de C.V. (ADR) (NYSE: CX) closed at $37.38 up from $34.92: A gain of 7%. LaFarge (ADS) (NYSE: LR) closed at $45.56 from $39.02: A gain of 16.76%.

Some day I will have to eat humble pie, but not today. As you can see, 5 of the 6 stocks are up and beat the market indices and most funds, individually and collectively, by a very large margin, and I have not included the dividends.

Those of you who are new to BloggingStocks can check out my other stories and read Chasing Value or Serious Money to find more potential opportunities and verify my track record as well.

Disclosure: I own APC, ACH and CX in several portfolios.

Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the vice president for design and research at an architecture & planning firm. Check out his other posts for BloggingStocks here.

Chasing Value: Bank Popular (BPOP) should be very popular

Several stories have been written lately recommending large bank stocks like Citigroup (NYSE: C), Bank of America Corp (NYSE: BAC), JP Morgan Chase & Co (NYSE: JPM), and Wells Fargo & Co. (NYSE: WFC); all great companies, all good investments paying nice dividends. However, when I search for value I am still finding a preference for the smaller banks with greater organic growth opportunities and the ever-present potential of being a take-over target.

In my last few stock screens Popular Inc (NYSE: BPOP) popped up and I did not give it much thought since we are overweighted in financial stocks, but last week I took a deeper look at BPOP, and yesterday started writing this story. This morning a limit order came through so I must disclose that I am now writing about a stock I bought at $17and as a shareholder have a financial interest in it, not just as a writer. But then I rarely recommend investors consider acquiring a stock that I would not buy myself.

The following metrics will give you a brief overview of the value from a trailing 12-month perspective. The data comes from AOL Money & Finance. Popular is the bank holding company for Banco Popular de Puerto Rico, the largest bank on the island, with some 200 branches. On the U.S. mainland, subsidiary Banco Popular North America serves growing Hispanic communities in six states through more than 140 branches.

Continue reading Chasing Value: Bank Popular (BPOP) should be very popular

Chasing Value: Berkshire Hathaway -- the time is now

Ooooh yes, Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.B) is a value, and it will be all the more so if this market takes a summer swoon, or global markets shift, or big caps take the lead. If you are just starting out and want to have a diversified solid foundation, this is a good stock to start with. You will also be a part of a special club receiving the golden words of Buffett in the annual report, although they are on the BRK website for all to see already.

Buffett will not be able to turn BRK.A or B into a 10-fer or a 5-fer over the next few years, but he can beat the overall market, and if he does it again it would surprise no one. According to AOL Money & Finance, this stock has a P/E three points below the DJIA, a low enough P/S and P/B that would make it pop-up on all my stock screens (except that I want dividends so it never has), consistent expansion of its ROE, and low debt -- and that spells value to me.

  • Price-to-earnings P/E: 14.92 (TTM)
  • Price-to-sales P/S: 1.71 (TTM)
  • Price-to-book P/B: 1.55 (TTM)
  • Price-to-cash-flow P/CF: 14.03 (TTM)
  • Return-on-equity ROE: 11.02 (TTM)
  • Long Term Debt-to-Equity (MRQ) 0.3
  • Dividend Yield 0.0%

This five year chart is indicative of a pattern with BRK.B (B-Shares are almost affordable, A-Shares are not) where the stock trades in a tight range, moves up to catch up with earnings and equity expansion and then trades within a tight range for a few more years. My rationalization for this is that the stock is as boring as Buffett's acquisitions (his famous words) and because of its high share price, low trading volume (it does not even meet S&P threshold for inclusion) and lack of startling press releases, there is always a time lag between the build-up of equity and the market's appreciation of same. However, at the first sign of market weakness this safe haven may jump off the $3600 share price it has been straddling for almost a year.

Continue reading Chasing Value: Berkshire Hathaway -- the time is now

Chasing Value Update 2: doing well with WFC, APC, ACH, AAUK, CX, and LR

This is the second update on the stock price status of the first six Chasing Value companies. Closing prices are form May 29, 2007. I keep track of my recommendations and anyone considering my commentary should "do their homework" too, just as James Cramer rants on his Mad Money TV show. Since I was tracking these picks I thought I would summarize the findings for our readers. Yes, the time frame is rather short, nevertheless here is the data through the end of May.

February 16, 2007: Chasing value: Wells Fargo: Wells Fargo & Company (NYSE: WFC) closed at $35.32 down from $35.76: a loss of 1.5%.

February 23, 2007: Chasing value: Anadarko Petroleum - got it! Anadarko Petroleum Company (NYSE: APC) closed at $52.40 up from $40.84: A gain of 28.3%.

March 3, 2007: Chasing value: Aluminum Corporation of China ADS: Aluminim Corp. of China (ADS) (NYSE: ACH) closed at $46.16 up from $22.98: A gain of 101%.

March 20, 2007: Chasing Value: Anglo American - Inflation hedge & more: Anglo American plc (NASDAQ: AAUK) closed at $30.32 up from $24.65: A gain of 23%

March 23, 2007 Chasing Value: Cemex and LaFarge look solid: CEMEX S.A. B de C.V. (ADR) (NYSE: CX) closed at $38.88 up from $34.92: A gain of 11.34%. LaFarge (ADS) (NYSE: LR) closed at $43.23 from $39.02: A gain of 10.78%.

So far so good; 6 of the 6 stocks are up and 5 of the 6 beat the market indices and I have not included the dividends. Not bad after all.

Those of you who are new to BloggingStocks can check out my other stories and read Chasing Value or Serious Money to find more potential opportunities and verify my track record as well.

Disclosure: I own APC and ACH in several portfolios.

Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the vice president for design and research at an architecture & planning firm. Check out his other posts for BloggingStocks here.

Chasing Value: WFC, APC, ACH, AAUK update

This is an update on the stock price status of the first four Chasing Value companies. I was tracking my ideas and thought if I was doing this anyway I might as well share it with readers. I'll be the first one to acknowledge the time frame is rather short, nevertheless here is the data through the end of April.

February 16, 2007: Chasing value: Wells Fargo closed at 35.59 from 35.76: 17 cent loss: Basically even money.

February 23, 2007: Chasing value: Anadarko Petroleum - got it! closed at 46.66 from 40.84: A gain of 14.55%

March 3, 2007: Chasing value: Aluminum Corporation of China ADS closed at 29.05 from 22.98: A gain of 26.41%

March 20, 2007: Chasing Value: Anglo American - Inflation hedge & more closed at 26.39 from 24.65: A gain of 7%

So far so good; 3 of the 4 stocks beat the market and the average of the four, at 12% beat the market by a large margin as well.

Those of you who are new to Bloggingstocks.com can check out my other stories and read Chasing Value or Serious Money to find more potential opportunities and verify my track record as well.

Disclosure: I own APC and ACH in several portfolios.

Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the vice president for design and research at an architecture & planning firm. Check out his other posts for BloggingStocks here.

Chasing Value: Anglo American - Inflation hedge & more

Anglo American plc (ADR) (NASDAQ: AAUK) is really a United Kingdom based company with no American history, although a long history it has. We are continuing our search for value stocks as we very methodically place new money in the market. Our first purchase was an old favorite: Washington Mutual, Inc. (NYSE:WM). We recently acquired it at $40 per share after following it down from $47. Yesterday, Georges Yared posted Washington Mutual: A ridiculously cheap pick in sub-prime panic and we agree with him totally....take a look at the depressed price, the 5.3% yield and more.

We like the Anglo American company and the stock for numerous reasons. It came to our attention initially because it has a 1.17 price-to-sales ratio (P/S), a price-to-book ratio of 1.29 (P/B), and a yield over 2%. To go along with those metrics it has been growing at 15% to 20% over the last few years as the world demand for gold and platinum has increased. You can check out the fundamentals at AOL Money & Finance as a starting point for your own research if you are interested.

Continue reading Chasing Value: Anglo American - Inflation hedge & more

Chasing value: Anadarko Petroleum - got it!

After watching Anadarko Petroleum Corporation (NYSE:APC) for quite some time I finally pulled the trigger at $40 per share on Wednesday, February 21, 2007. More precisely, I put a GTC (good till canceled) order on it after my stock alert was triggered at $42 per share. That day, two weeks ago, I shared my views about APC when I wrote Anadarko Petroleum - hmmm, getting interesting. APC was on my watch list for a long time.

Anadarko closed Thursday at $40.76. You can check out the Fundamentals here.

On Wednesday when the Associated Press reported: "Among laggards, Anadarko Petroleum Corp.'s stock fell after a Prudential Equity Group analyst lowered his price target on the energy company. The Woodlands, Texas, company's stock shed $1.31, or 3.2 percent, to $40.02 on the Big Board." My opportunity came when an analyst commented - you all know I love analysts! The price dipped momentarily below $40 and scooped me and a lot of other happy investors up, then closed up for the day despite the comments, because oil prices were going up.

The five year chart below indicates that APC first peaked at about $40 two years ago and passed $56 about nine months ago. Its 52-week low is $39.51 and, although I do not support technical analyses, still I must admit being slightly influenced by what I thought would be a bottom. I was influenced equally by the thought of a few deals that got away because I was too measured in my view, seeking the very lowest price and missing out when something changed direction. Since I am looking for a long-term hold I did not want to miss the boat for a buck in this case.

Continue reading Chasing value: Anadarko Petroleum - got it!

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Last updated: November 10, 2009: 04:08 AM

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