This afternoon, Citigroup (NYSE: C) chose to walk away from its discussions to acquire Wachovia (NYSE: WB) but Citi will revive its $60 billion lawsuit against Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC). Meanwhile, with its $122 billion portfolio of toxic option ARM mortgages -- which add gaps in borrowers' monthly payments to the loan principal -- Wachovia may be too radioactive for Wells Fargo to buy.
How did we get here? On September 29th, Citi thought it had a deal to buy Wachovia's banking operations for $2.2 billion -- Citi would absorb the first $42 billion in losses and stick the FDIC with the rest. In exchange, the FDIC would get $12 billion worth of Citi preferred stock. Last Thursday, Wells Fargo announced a deal to buy all of Wachovia for $15 billion without costing the FDIC anything. Citi sued, the FDIC encouraged the three parties to split the baby, and this afternoon Citi decided to withdraw.
But now that the field is open for Wells Fargo, should it continue with the deal or has it learned that Wachovia's bad assets will make the deal too costly? Although Wachovia would give Wells $448 billion in deposits in 3,300 branches in 21 states, it also has $122 billion worth of option ARM mortgages. These mortgages are likely to default in huge numbers over the next few years. That's because the average option ARM holder will see a 63% rise in monthly payments -- for an additional $1,053 per month. With the economy likely to deteriorate, that could burn a big hole in Wells' $48 billion in capital.

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