The choppy/consolidating (or perhaps worse) market conditions sometimes give the impression that growth plays do not exist, but that is not the case, and one growth company worth reviewing is Western Digital Corp.
Western Digital Corp. (NYSE: WDC) is one of largest, independent hard drive manufacturers in the world.
In general, analysts see 35%-45% revenue growth in FY 2008, reflecting the Komag acquisition, and solid PC hard drive and DVD hard drive demand.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Ford, DealerTrack and Omnicare were today's noteworthy downgrades:
Citigroup downgraded shares of Ford (NYSE: F) to Sell from Hold, as they see a number of rising headwinds in the company's turnaround, including a low likelihood of Ford's relatively older product lineup holding U.S. share in the first half of 2008.
Lehman downgraded DealerTrack (NASDAQ: TRAK) to Equal Weight from Overweight citing near-term headwinds from economic uncertainty, declining auto sales, declining growth, and non-prime transaction risk.
Oppenheimer downgraded shares of Omnicare (NYSE: OCR) to Perform from Outperform to reflect concerns over the timing and pace of a potential recovery.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: RF Micro Devices, Western Digital and Boyd Gaming were today's noteworthy downgrades:
Jefferies downgraded shares of RF Micro Devices (NASDAQ: RFMD) to Hold from Buy to reflect the continued softness in the China Market after Asian channel checks suggested the March quarter will be weak.
Citigroup downgraded shares of Western Digital (NYSE: WDC) to Hold from Buy, as they believe the HDD industry is nearing a cyclical peak. They also view the likelihood of consolidation as less likely given the current conditions.
Boyd Gaming (NYSE: BYD) was lowered to Neutral from Add at Calyon following its Q4 report.
Hitachi (NYSE: HIT) made a bold move in 2002 when it purchased IBM (NYSE: IBM)'s hard drive business for $2 billion. At the time, the hard drive industry was in a profit funk and IBM was looking to exit the hardware business. It eventually sold its PC division to Chinese company Lenovo to complete its exit from hardware. Five years later, Hitachi probably wishes it had never gotten into hard drives.
Hitachi Global Storage Technologies, the division responsible for hard drive storage, has consistently lost money in the last two years as competitors Seagate Technology (NYSE: STX) and Western Digital (NYSE: WDC) have really taken advantage of home entertainment, laptop and TiVo-like devices that are infiltrating homes like stormtroopers. Sales have been very nice for both companies, which are profitable even after storage was considered a boring and dead field around the year 2000. Hitachi, though, has had no such luck. Instead of selling its hard drive division to a private equity firm, the Japanese conglomerate may be looking to Japanese competitors Toshiba and Fujitsu as partners to form a new hard drive company.
Silver Lake Partners, which helped take Seagate private in 2000 only to launch it as a public company a few years later, has reportedly been in talks with Hitachi. Nothing concrete was produced, and Hitachi even said it does not want to sell the division. If Hitachi is too steeped in Japanese culture to sell to outsiders, then it has to do something -- but its options may remain limited. And, Toshiba and Fujitsu -- both of which have small hard drive businesses -- may not want to take more risk in the storage business currently dominated by Seagate and Western Digital. Hitachi shareholders, hold no fear; most likely, some kind of decision will come before April 1 of this year.
Seagate Technology (NYSE: STX) has had an interesting seven years. The company was taken private by a group of investment firms led by Silver Lake Partners and Texas Pacific Group and then returned to the public markets a mere two years later for some odd reason. Wait: that reason was to give a payoff to the investors, as going off the market for 24 months gave the global company a chance to sneer at Wall Street's quarterly, paranoid expectations and focus on long-term strategy. The hard drive company you may have rarely heard of, though, is recording billions in revenue each quarter and is in fine shape financially. CEO Bill Watkins trumpets this fact all the time, but the Street rarely listens.
So, with Watkins alluding to $3 billion quarters in the near future and growing profits these days, is the market listening? Maybe not yet, but maybe your portfolio should. The never-slowing demand for storage is everywhere these days, hiding in plain site. Have a full-size iPod, Tivo box or other DVR, Xbox 360 or a computer in the home? Each one of those probably has some kind of hard drive in size, and according to Watkins, more consumers are buying all that storage than businesses these days. We have an insatiable need to store movies, music, files, taxes and everything else digitally, so this makes sense.
Barron's Online's (subscription required) "Weekday Trader" is inclined to take profits in the disk-drive market while others are popping the champagne; specifically in Western Digital Corporation (NYSE: WDC), which Barron's wrote about positively four months ago and has appreciated 29.6%.
Emerging markets are outperforming their U.S. and European counterparts this year, but investing in some countries -- including Turkey and Hungary -- is still risky, according to the "Heard on the Street" column in today's Wall Street Journal (subscription required).
The Los Angeles Times reported that Washington Mutual Inc (NYSE: WM), the largest U.S. savings and loan bank, will close two mortgage divisions, resulting in about 1,000 job cuts.
Spanish telecommunications company Telefonica SA (NYSE: TEF) said it is in talks with Apple Inc (NASDAQ: AAPL) concerning the right to sell the company's new phone, the iPhone, in Spain, next summer, Telecom Paper (subscription required) reported.
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A rumored partnership between Apple and Volkswagen AG (OTC: VLKAY) to develop an "iCar" with iPod connectivity could benefit both companies but is unlikely to yield an actual automobile for three or four years, according to market intelligence firm iSuppli Corp., reported AppleInsider.com.
Looking back at recent company statements regarding earnings and guidance, there seems to be a big disparity in the type of companies reporting above average numbers to those reporting below average numbers.
If legendary mutual fund manager Peter Lynch's adage that higher stock prices follow higher earnings still holds true, then it is time to take a closer look at technology stocks.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: The U.S. beverage sector, ImClone, Starwood Hotels and Marriott International were today's noteworthy upgrades:
Goldman Sachs upgraded the U.S. beverage sector, including Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO), Molson Coors Brewing Company (NYSE: TAP), Anheuser Busch Companies (NYSE: BUD), PepsiAmericas Inc (NYSE: PAS) and Coca-Cola Enterprises (NYSE: CCE) to Attractive from Neutral. The firm cited expectations for a stronger 2008, benign commodity cost outlook, better than expected US beer demand, and valuations. Goldman upgraded shares of PepsiCo Inc (NYSE: PEP) to Buy from Neutral citing valuation and improving industry fundamentals.
Bear Stearns upgraded ImClone (NASDAQ: IMCL) to Outperform from Peer Perform citing positive Flex trial results and the new market opportunity for Erbitux.
Thomas Weisel upgraded Starwood Hotels (NYSE: HOT) and Marriott International (NYSE: MAR) to Market Weight from Underweight based on healthy August trends, credit market may ease concerns over supply growth, and valuations.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Ingram Micro (IM), SYNNEX Corp (SNX), Yahoo! (YHOO), Macquarie Infrastructure (MIC) and Polypore International (PPO) were today's noteworthy initiations:
Banc of America assumed coverage of Ingram Micro (NYSE: IM) with a Buy rating and $23 target, as the firm is positive on the company's balanced growth and margin expansion.
Banc of America also initiated shares of SYNNEX Corp (NYSE: SNX) with a Buy rating and $24 target, as they believe cost synergies and mix in 2007 will drive 2008 leverage and share appreciation.
ThinkEquity transferred coverage of Yahoo! (NASDAQ: YHOO) with an Accumulate rating and cut its target to $27. ThinkEquity believes Yahoo!'s challenges, which include employee turnover risk, slower user growth, competitive pressures and limited upside in search, are unlikely to be fixed near-term by the new team of management.
Macquarie Infrastructure (NYSE: MIC) was initiated with a Buy rating and $51 target at Citigroup, as the firm believes management fee concerns are priced into shares and that the recent acquisition of Mercury Air and San Jose Jet Center will drive a 6% increase in dividend by the end of 2007.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Seagate Technology (STX), SAP AG (SAP), Western Digital (WDC), BAE Systems (BAESY) and Manpower (MAN) are today's noteworthy upgrades:
Hambrecht upgraded shares of Seagate Tech (NYSE: STX) on improving demand and second half of 2007 prospects. Bear Stearns upgraded shares to Outperform from Peer Perform based on stabilizing industry conditions.
ING upgraded shares of SAP AG (NYSE: SAP) to Buy from Hold shares to reflect the migration within the company's large installed base and growing opportunities in the small business market.
Hambrecht upgraded Western Digital (NYSE: WDC) to Buy from Hold on improving demand for 2H07 growth prospects.
HSBC raised BAE Systems (OTC: BAESY) off the ground, upgrading shares to Neutral from Underweight.
Banc of America upgraded Manpower (NYSE: MAN) to Buy from Neutral to reflect the change in French payroll tax subsidies, which they view as a positive change to the company's ongoing margin structure.
OTHER UPGRADES:
First Albany upgraded ATMI Inc (NASDAQ: ATMI) to Buy from Hold.
The Medicines Co (NASDAQ: MDCO) was raised to Sector Perform from Underperform at RBC Capital.
Komag was downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Craig-Hallum, to Market Perform from Outperform at Piper Jaffray, to Hold from Buy at Deutsche Bank and to Neutral from Outperform at Robert W Baird & Co following the announcement it would be acquired by Western Digital Corporation (NYSE: WDC).
Morgan Stanley downgraded Commercial Mortgage REITs to Underweight from Neutral. Specifically, the firm downgraded shares of Capital Trust, Inc (NYSE: CT) to Equal Weight from Underweight and Gramercy Capital Corp (NYSE: GKK) to Underweight from Equal Weight, citing increased credit spreads and subordination levels.
Getty Images was downgraded to Sell from Hold at Matrix as the firm believes margins are declining and sees downside to their $40/share intrinsic value calculation.
Rural/Metro was downgraded by Ferris, Baker Watts to Neutral from Buy on valuation.
OTHER DOWNGRADES:
PMI Group Inc (NYSE: PMI) was downgraded to Neutral from Buy at UBS.
Deutsche Bank downgraded Palm, Inc (NASDAQ: PALM) to Sell from Hold.
Research in Motion was upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Morgan Keegan. RBC Capital upgraded shares to Top Pick as they see continued upside from product momentum. Banc of America upgraded to Buy from Neutral following the company's Q1 results and announced stock split. JMP Securities upgraded to Market Outperform from Market Perform, saying confidence in demand and recent checks indicate very strong backlog and forecasts.
Komag was upgraded to Neutral from Underweight at JP Morgan following the buyout offer from Western Digital.
Western Digital was upgraded to Strong Buy from Buy at Needham, as the firm believes Western Digital's acquisition of Komag is a strategic positive and that accretion will likely be significantly better than guidance.
Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT) might finally be on the verge of seeing the adoption of Vista, wrote Arnie Berman, chief technology strategist, at Cowen & Company late last week.
Berman surveyed 283 corporate IT buyers and found 47% of small- and medium-sized businesses will begin deploying Vista by December 31, this is up from 43% in a similar survey completed in February. 31% of larger enterprises plan to start rolling out Vista by December 31, up from 25% in the previous survey.
In our past Intel blogs, the Fly has suggested Intel has capacity in place to start ramping 64 megabyte processors big time, on a scale Advanced Micro Devices Inc (NYSE: AMD) does not possess. Berman points out that Intel's enterprise value/sales ratio relative to AMD is close to an all-time low, meaning Intel is cheap relative to AMD despite AMD's recent poor stock performance.
Nvidia at 19x consensus calendar 2007 results has shown the ability to deliver favorable financial surprises and could provide the solution to the greatest potential bottleneck for Vista adoption, the graphic processors.
Micron is selling close to its $10.91 book value which historically has supported the stock and memory demand will increase with the new operating system.
The Wall Street Journal (subscription required) reported that Highfields Capital Management LP, which owns an 8.5% stake in Wendy's International Inc (NYSE: WEN), has sent a "strongly worded letter" to Wendy's chairman James Pickett, urging the fast food chain to pursue a sale.
Barron's Online's (subscription required) "Weekday Trader" column wrote that Western Digital Corporation (NYSE: WDC) shares could appreciate another 20% or more from a recent price of $18.06 per share, if investors can appreciate that the PC market is not permanently sluggish.
The Financial Times (subscription required) reported that Dow Chemical Company (NYSE: DOW) and Saudi Aramco are close to signing a deal to build a petrochemical plant worth about $20B.
German prosecutors and investigators are looking into allegations that a German paint supplier paid bribes to at least five Volkwagen AG (OTC: VLKAY) employees to gain contracts with the company, reported the Financial Times.
OTHER PAPERS:
The Canadian Pension Plan Investment Board is heading up a consortium that is in talks to possibly buyout the parent of Bell Canada, BCE Inc (NYSE: BCE), reported the New York Times.
WEBSITES:
Paul McCartney reportedly told Billboard that a deal is "virtually settled" to make the Beatles catalog available for sale online.
In following the hard drive industry these days, leaders of those companies (Seagate, Western Digital, Hitachi) seem to think that there will always be a place for the standard spinning hard drive in most desktop computers, servers and laptop systems. If this statement were true in 2004, is it still true today? Sure -- but the tide is changing, albeit slowly.
Dell Inc. (NASDAQ: DELL) needs fast access times, less power consumption and no moving parts. The speed and moving parts differences are huge. Although SSD capacities (32 Gigabyte for now) are not near the capacity of a standard 80 or 120 Gigabyte traditional hard drives, there are quite a few advantages.
One is not cost, though, as these smallish 32 Gigabyte drives run off the shelf for $350 (Dell charges $549). But, the signal Dell is giving here is that some customers may prefer these drives, regardless of cost. With more and more laptop computers being sold as "desktop replacements," the only thing not keeping up is the traditional hard drive.
Is Dell poised to one-up the competition with newer (and faster) laptop computer storage devices? Heck, it needs something to kick start sales again after being pummeled by Hewlett-Packard recently. Perhaps this is part of the solution. Now, if Dell can only justify the higher prices of its systems that contain these SSDs, the company may be onto something, eh? Its stock price needs a lift, and to get there, so do its sales.
Platters spinning at 5,400 RPM don't cut the mustard with newer dual-core computer processors and fast RAM. Customers demand more, and if traditional hard drives are lagging, SSD will enter the picture quite rapidly, As it does, prices will fall and companies like Seagate and Western Digital may find themselves a bit surprised.
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In following the hard drive industry these days, leaders of those companies (Seagate, Western Digital, Hitachi) seem to think that there will always be a place for the standard spinning hard drive in most desktop computers, servers and laptop systems. If this statement were true in 2004, is it still true today? Sure -- but the tide is changing, albeit slowly.
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