Weyerhaeuser (NYSE: WY - option chain) stock is falling today after the company cut its quarterly dividend to 5 cents from 25 cents. In addition, Weyerhaeuser will defer timber harvest and close some facilities in order to contain costs. If you think this stock won't be rising too far in the coming months, then it could be a good time to look at a bearish hedged play on WY.

This morning, WY opened at $28.64. So far today the stock has hit a low of $28.51 and a high of $29.42. As of 10:40, WY is trading at $28.96, down $1.03 (-3.4%). The chart for WY looks neutral and S&P gives WY a neutral 3 STARS (out of 5) hold ranking.

The Associated Press reports that jobless claims -- at 455,000 -- hit a six-year high in July. Analysts underestimated the total by 25,000, as they forecast 430,000 such claims. When combined with this morning's disappointing July retail sales results, the economy appears to be doing worse than experts expected.

AP reports that many companies announced layoffs recently. These include General Motors Corp. (NYSE: GM), Weyerhaeuser Co. (NYSE: WY), Starbucks Corp. (NASDAQ: SBUX) and Bennigan's restaurants. More such layoffs are likely to be announced as the economy prepares a recessionary banquet of woes for the presidential candidates.

The lesson for those interested in economics is pretty clear. You can create the illusion of prosperity by borrowing lots of money. If someone lends me $100 million and I buy a big estate on Long Island, people will think I am rich. But if I can't pay back the loan, the bank will kick me out of the house and suddenly I won't look so well off.

That's what the banks are doing now across wide swaths of the economy. And it will be years before the mess is cleaned up.

Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter. He has no financial interest in the securities mentioned.

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says the Weyerhaeuser and Bristol-Myers stories slipped under the radar yesterday.

Did anyone even see that Weyerhaeuser (NYSE: WY) (Cramer's Take) made this great trade with International Paper (NYSE: IP) (Cramer's Take), getting out of the commodity container board business and pulling in $6 billion to reduce debt? To me, anytime you get out of a commodity business you lift your multiple, even if the rest is constrained by the housing-related lumber business.

Or how about the story that Bristol-Myers (NYSE: BMY) (Cramer's Take) might sell its baby-food business for a big chunk of change, another $6 billion.

Hmm, $12 billion in shuffles, both good for the shufflers, and no one really cares.

That's the problem with the endless focus on the financials, something I know I am falling prey to, too. Because of the focus, for example, I also missed that Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT) (Cramer's Take) traded back to $68 and change after trading up to $75, a terrific opportunity.

An International Paper (NYSE: IP) press release announced today that the company is intending to purchase the Containerboard, Packaging and Recycling (CBPR) businesses of Weyerhaeuser (NYSE:WY)for $6 billion in cash. The deal is expected to close in Q3 2008, subject to regulatory approval and financing.

Due to the realization of tax benefits based upon International Papers purchase of Weyerhaeuser assets rather than stock, IP shall realize tax benefits in the amount of approximately $1.4 billion, making the actual purchase price closer to $4.6 billion.

International Paper Chairman and Chief Executive Officer John Faraci is quoted in the press release as stating: "This deal represents a compelling opportunity for International Paper and our share owners at a very attractive valuation... integrating Weyerhaeuser's CBPR business into our North American packaging platform fits very well with our strategy to improve our earnings, cash flow and returns by strengthening existing businesses. We expect the combined packaging business will generate stronger cash flow and higher EBITDA margins than either standalone business."

Even though International Paper sees considerable upside potential in this acquisition, as of this writing, shares of International Paper have lost nearly 8.5 percent on the day. This may signal a good near term opportunity to buy into company shares when considering that the company indicates this deal holds income increase potential of as much as $400 million annually. The company sees this acquisition improving profitability over a three year period of assimilation, with approximately 40% of that improvement to be realized within the first 12 months of closing the deal.

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Palm (PALM), Fuel Tech (FTEK), Weyerhaeuser (WY), and John Wiley & Sons (JW.A) were today's noteworthy upgrades:

• Palm Inc (NASDAQ: PALM) was upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform by Morgan Keegan, who expects PALM's recapitalization to bring more financial discipline, better growth from new products, and views the valuation as compelling.
• FuelTech Inc (NASDAQ: FTEK) was upgraded to Buy from Accumulate at ThinkEquity, which believes the company technologies are well-positioned as the U.S. Clean Air Act takes effect.
• Bank of America upgraded Weyerhaeuser Company (NYSE: WY) to Buy from Neutral, citing valuation and their prediction that the company's restructuring will create value for shareholders.
• John Wiley & Sons Inc (NYSE: JW.A) was upgraded to Buy from Hold by Stifel Nicolaus & Co, which views the company as a consistent performer with emerging catalysts and reasonable valuation.

OTHER UPGRADES:

• Circuit City Stores Inc (NYSE: CC) was added to the SMid Money List at JP Morgan.
• Fifth Third Bancorp (NASDAQ: FITB) was upgraded to Market Perform from Underperform at Keefe Bruyette & Woods.
• United Technologies Corporation (NYSE: UTX) was upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform by Bernstein.
• BreitBurn Energy Partners LP (NASDAQ: BBEP) was upgraded to Buy from Hold by AG Edwards.

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Select pharmaceutical companies, timber companies and Kona Grill Inc (NASDAQ: KONA) and were today's noteworthy initiations:

• Medarex Inc (NASDAQ: MEDX) was initiated with a Positive rating at Susquehanna. The firm said Medarex has multiple drivers include a potential buyout by one of its existing partners, as well as clinical progress and the success of its technology platform in monoclonal antibody therapeutics.
• Susquehanna also initiated shares of Dyax Corporation (NASDAQ: DYAX), Millennium Pharmaceuticals Inc (NASDAQ: MLNM), and Idera Pharmaceuticals Inc (AMEX: IDP) with Neutral ratings and Dynavax Technologies Corporation (NASDAQ: DVAX) and Coley Pharmaceutical Group Inc (NASDAQ: COLY) with Positive ratings.
• Rayonier Inc (NYSE: RYN), Plum Creek Timber Company Inc (NYSE: PCL) and Weyerhaeuser Company (NYSE: WY) were initiated with Buy ratings at Merrill Lynch.
• Kona Grill was initiated with an Outperform rating at Cowen. The firm believes Kona can grow its asset base 10-fold at strong store-level cash-on-cash ROICs.

OTHER INITIATIONS:

• Jefferies initiated shares of Input/Output Inc (NYSE: IO) with a Buy rating and $19 target.
• Goldman Sachs initiated shares of Minerals Technologies Inc (NYSE: MTX) with a Buy rating and $80 target.
• JP Morgan initiated shares of Orexigen Therapeutics Inc (NASDAQ: OREX) with an Overweight rating and is positive on the company's obesity pipeline.

Chevron Corporation (NYSE: CVX) announced today that it will be considering an agreement with lumbar giant Weyerhaeuser Co (NYSE: WY) to sell biofuel made from cellulose.

The two companies will look into ways of producing clean-burning biofuels for cars and trucks from wood fiber and other nonfood sources of cellulose. While both companies agree that there are some hurdles that need to be overcome to turn this idea into a reality, it is good to see Chevron exploring this option.

This news comes a day after another oil giant, ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP), became the first U.S. based oil company to support mandatory national regulation of greenhouse gas emissions.

As more and more attention is being paid to global heating and greenhouse gas emissions, the world is going to be looking at ways of developing and using more sources of alternative, renewable energy supplies. Ethanol is a great alternative but with most of the ethanol coming from corn these days, many people have posed the question of what impact this is going to have on the food chain in the long run.

By by using ethanol produced from biomass such as forest and agricultural waste we can accomplish greenhouse-gas neutral energy for our cars and trucks without putting a dent into the food supply.

Change takes time, and we still have a long way to go, but at least it looks like Big Oil is finally starting to embrace the idea of greening up the planet.

Michael Fowlkes has worked as a stock trader for seven years and spent the last two years working as an analyst for the online investment advisory service Investor's Observer.

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Some of today's more notable downgrades included Apartment Investment & Management Co (AIV), Weyerhaeuser Company (WY) and Edwards Lifesciences Corp (EW).

• RBC downgraded Apartment Investment & Management Co (NYSE: AIV) to Underperform from Sector Perform based on valuation and concerns regarding the company's transaction focus.

• Weyerhaeuser Co (NYSE: WY) was downgraded at BMO to Underperform from Market Perform based on valuation.

• Morgan Stanley downgraded Edwards Lifesciences (NYSE: EW) to Underweight from Equal-Weight based on increased competition and aggressive Street estimates for the downgrade.

OTHER DOWNGRADES:

• William Blair downgraded TiVo Inc (NASDAQ: TIVO) to Market Perform from Outperform citing slowing customer growth, competition, rising subscriber acquisition costs and valuation.

• Canccord cut Hollis-Eden Pharmaceuticals Inc (NASDAQ: HEPH) to Hold from Buy following the cancellation of the ARS contract.

• Morgan Stanley downgraded Cymer, Inc (NASDAQ: CYMI) to Underweight from Equal-Weight.

• Baird cut Genesco Inc (NYSE: GCO) to Neutral from Outperform following lowered guidance.

• Merriman cut Distributed Energy Systems Corp (NASDAQ: DESC) to Neutral from Buy following the company's lower-than-expected Q4 revenues.

Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).

Note: The Daily Option Update is provided by Stock Options Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.

Mirant Corp. (NYSE:MIR) implied volatility Elevated at 32 as MIR trades near Record levels.

MIR is expected to report full EPS & hold a conference call on 3/5. MIR has been frequently mentioned as a potential candidate for announcing a recapitalization or a share repurchase. MIR call option volume of 1,044 contracts compares to put volume of 3,001 contracts. MIR overall option implied volatility of 32 is above its 26-week average of 26 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price risks.

New Century Financial Corp (NYSE:NEW) low cost deep OTM April & May 5 put spread trades as Hedge.

NEW, a real estate investment trust, providing mortgage products to borrowers nationwide, is recently down 37c to $15.47. NEW deep out of the money April 5 puts traded 4,715 contracts near the bid at .12 & .13 cents above its theoretical value of .01 cent. NEW deep out of the money May 5 puts traded 5,568 contracts on the offer of .40 cents above theoretical value of .04 cents according to Track Data, suggesting spreaders paying up to hedge risk.

MOST NOTEWORTHY: The more notable downgrades today included Playboy Enterprises (PLA), Embratel Participacoes (EMT) and Choice Hotels Int'l Inc (CHH):

• Bank of America and UBS downgraded Playboy Enterprises (NYSE: PLA) to Neutral from Buy, citing limited visibility.

• Citigroup downgraded Embratel Participacoes ADS (NYSE: EMT) to Sell from Hold on expected lower liquidity following Telfonos de Mexico SA ADS (NYSE: TMX) voluntary tender expiration.

• Choice Hotels Int'l Inc (NYSE CHH) was downgraded to Underperform from Peer Perform at Bear Stearns following the company's Q4 report and guidance.

OTHER DOWNGRADES:

• VeraSun Energy Corp (NYSE: VSE) was downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Goldman based on relative valuation.

• Goldman Sachs also downgraded 1-800-Flowers.com Inc (NASDAQ: FLWS) to Sell from Neutral based on valuation.

• Piper Jaffray downgraded Buffalo Wild Wings Inc (NASDAQ: BWLD) to Market Perform from Outperform citing difficult year-over-year comps and increased chicken wing prices.

• CIBC downgraded Nasdaq Stock Market Inc (NASDAQ: NDAQ) to Sector Performer from Outperformer.

• ThinkEquity downgraded Zoltek Companies inc (NASDAQ: ZOLT) to Accumulate from Buy.

• BMO Capital Markets cut Weyerhaeuser Co (NYSE: WY) to Market Perform from Outperform based on valuation.

Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Embarq Corp (EQ) and Boston Scientific Corp (BSX) were today's most notable downgrades:

• Goldman Sachs downgraded Embarq Corp (NYSE: EQ) to Sell from Neutral based on valuation and potential margin dilution.

• Boston Scientific Corp (NYSE: BSX) was downgraded to Peer Perform from Outperform at Bear Stearns based on regulatory and competitive challenges.

OTHER DOWNGRADES:

• Despite expectations of strong Q4 results and 2007 guidance, Needham downgraded Garmin Ltd (NASDAQ: GRMN) to Hold from Buy based on valuation, as they believe the multiple the market is willing to give the stock is likely to decline as PNDs continue to increase as a percentage of revenue.

• Roth Capital downgraded China BAK Battery Inc (NASDAQ: CBAK) to Hold from Buy.

• DA Davidson downgraded Weyerhaeuser Co (NYSE: WY) to Neutral from Buy.

• BMO Capital Markets downgraded Brady Corp (NYSE: BRC) to Market Perform from Outperform.

• Wachovia downgraded Boyd Gaming Corp (NYSE: BYD) to Market Perform from Outperform, expecting weakness in 2007 from the Las Vegas locals market and Atlantic City.

• Penn National Gaming Inc (NASDAQ: PENN) was downgraded to Hold from Buy at Deutsche Bank citing valuation.

Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).

Franklin Mutual Advisors has put Weyerhaeuser's (NYSE: WY) management on notice: Franklin continues to believe that WY's share price reflects a substantial discount to the intrinsic value of its underlying assets and core businesses. [Translation: the stock is not meeting Franklin's appreciation expectations.]

Franklin owns a 7.6% stake in Weyerhaeuser. In its letter to WY's board of directors, Franklin argued that it appears the tax law will continue to favor holding properties in entities such as timber investment management organizations or real estate investment trusts, and it cited several structural disadvantages for WY.

Franklin also noted an analyst's report that projected a destruction of $24 per share in shareholder value, or nearly 33% of current equity value, and Franklin underscored that "Weyerhaeuser must immediately take steps to eliminate this disadvantage, including possibly converting the current corporate structure to a REIT."

Weyerhaeuser shares were up $4.23 to $73.85 in morning trading Friday.

Chinese President Hu Jintao may be ready to crack down on pirates in his country who ignore international copyright and intellectual property protections.  While touring Microsoft's Washington state campus, President Hu told bill Gates, "Because you, Mr. Gates, are a friend of China, I'm a friend of Microsoft." 

President Hu says he deals with Microsoft operating system daily.  Chinese government officials indicated they will crack down on the sales of illegal copies of Microsoft's Windows operating system.  Some computer makers plan to ship more computers with legitimate Windows software installed.  Microsoft will eventually see an increase in sales to China, but analysts believe it will be a long time before there is a significant impact on Microsoft's bottom line.

After touring Microsoft's facilities, Bill Gates hosted a private dinner at his home for President Hu with 100 guests, including executives from Costco Wholesale Corp., Weyerhaeuser Co., Boeing and Amazon.com Inc.  Boeing got the best news from President Hu, who agreed to purchase 80 Boeing 737 jets valued at $5.2 billion.  Well that's list price ... the final deal will probably include some price discounts.

Let's hope President Hu's promise to Microsoft will extend to other holders of U.S. copyright and intellectual property rights- - including other software producers, movie studios, and apparel brands.