"One of the best inflationary hedges of the 20th century is often forgotten -- timber," suggests Larry Spears.

The contributing editor to Money Morning explains, "In the modern era, inflation has never been a match for timber. On average, the price of harvested lumber itself has risen more than 5% annually over the past 100 years.

"Since 1910, the value of timberland as an investment has risen faster - and with less volatility - than stocks as measured by the Standard & Poor's 500 Index. Here's a trio of stocks to benefit from this trend.

Analyst Upgrades

• Red Hat (RHT) and American Public (APEI) to outperform from sector perform at RBC Capital.
• KBR (KBR) and Foster Wheeler (FWLT) to buy from neutral at Goldman.
• Bio-Rad (BIO) to outperform from market perform at Leerink.
• Oceaneering (OII) to outperform from neutral at Credit Suisse.
• ASM International (ASMI) and Avid Technology (AVID) to overweight from neutral at JPMorgan.
• Dominion Resources (D) to equal weight from underweight at Morgan Stanley.
• Nationwide Health Properties (NHP) to buy from hold at Jefferies.
• Vivus (VVUS) to buy from underperform at BofA/Merrill.
• Intersil (ISIL) to buy from hold at Canaccord.

The Associated Press reports that jobless claims -- at 455,000 -- hit a six-year high in July. Analysts underestimated the total by 25,000, as they forecast 430,000 such claims. When combined with this morning's disappointing July retail sales results, the economy appears to be doing worse than experts expected.

AP reports that many companies announced layoffs recently. These include General Motors Corp. (NYSE: GM), Weyerhaeuser Co. (NYSE: WY), Starbucks Corp. (NASDAQ: SBUX) and Bennigan's restaurants. More such layoffs are likely to be announced as the economy prepares a recessionary banquet of woes for the presidential candidates.

The lesson for those interested in economics is pretty clear. You can create the illusion of prosperity by borrowing lots of money. If someone lends me $100 million and I buy a big estate on Long Island, people will think I am rich. But if I can't pay back the loan, the bank will kick me out of the house and suddenly I won't look so well off.

That's what the banks are doing now across wide swaths of the economy. And it will be years before the mess is cleaned up.

Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter. He has no financial interest in the securities mentioned.

With a turn of the calendar page, we drift into the middle portion of the current quarter, but the earnings season rolls on. Among the many companies scheduled to report quarterly results this coming week are Time Warner Inc. (NYSE: TWX), Cisco Systems Inc. (NASDAQ: CSCO), News Corp. (NYSE: NWS), and Whole Foods Market International (NASDAQ: WFMI). Let's take a look at which companies Wall Street analysts are expecting to be among the top earnings gainers and decliners this week.

Analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial expect the following to report strong earnings growth when compared to the same period of the previous year.

• DRS Technologies Inc. (NYSE: DRS): $0.85 EPS (+95.3%) on revenue of $823.8 million (+12.0%)
• Integrys Energy Group Inc. (NYSE: TEG): $0.40 EPS (+70.0%) on revenue of $2.6 billion (+9.7%)
• Cimarex Energy Co. (NYSE: XEC): $2.53 EPS (+64.4%) on revenue of $599.9 million (+75.4%)
• Forest Oil Corp. (NYSE: FST): $1.51 EPS (+55.6%) on revenue of $456.1 million (+79.1%)
• Devon Energy Corp. (NYSE: DVN): $3.28 EPS (+48.5%) on revenue of $4.1 billion (+38.5%)
• CMS Energy Corp. (NYSE: CMS): $0.13 EPS (+46.2%) on revenue of $1.4 billion (+6.7%)
• Transocean Inc. (NYSE: RIG): $3.23 EPS (+43.0%) on revenue of $3.1 billion (+112.9%)
• Sara Lee Corp. (NYSE: SLE): $0.26 EPS (+38.5%) on revenue of $3.5 billion (+8.9%)
• Williams Companies Inc. (NYSE: WMB): $0.69 EPS (+37.7%) on revenue of $3.4 billion (+20.0%)
• Harris Corp. (NYSE: HRS): $0.99 EPS (+28.3%) on revenue of $1.4 billion (+18.0%)

MOST NOTEWORTHY:

• JP Morgan downgraded International Paper (NYSE: IP) to Neutral from Overweight and said its purchase of Weyerhaeuser's (NYSE: WY) containerboard business will shift the company's focus back to North America and result in a less attractive product mix given increased OCC exposure.
  
• Merriman downgraded shares of Dynavax Tech (NASDAQ: DVAX) to Neutral from Buy after the company's hepatitis B vaccine was placed on clinical hold.
  
• Merrill cut Telecom Italia (NYSE: TI) to Neutral from buy as they expect stronger competition and regulatory measures to cut prices.

• Bear Stearns (NYSE: BSC) was downgraded to Neutral from Accumulate at Buckingham.
  
• ViewPoint Financial (NASDAQ: VPFG) was lowered to Market Perform from Outperform at Keefe Bruyette.
  
• Bear downgraded Siemens (NYSE: SI) to Peer Perform from Outperform.

MOST NOTEWORTHY:

• DiamondRock Hospitality (NYSE: DRH) was upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Baird, citing the newly-announced 4.8M repurchase plan, strong balance sheet and valuation.
  
• Keefe Bruyette upgraded shares of Pzena Investment (NYSE: PZN) to Market Perform from Underperform after the company announced February ending AUM.
  
• Goldman added Vodafone (NYSE: VOD) to its Conviction Buy List following the recent weakness as they expect the company to benefit from growth in wireless data.

• UBS raised Weyerhaeuser (NYSE: WY) to Buy from Neutral.
  
• Credit Suisse upgraded MedCath (NASDAQ: MDTH) and Lululemon (NASDAQ: LULU) to Outperform from Neutral.
  
• Goldman added Cardinal Health (NYSE: CAH) to its Conviction Buy List.

• Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC) -- Q3 guidance
• National Semconductor Corporation (NYSE: NSM) -- Q1 earnings
• Western Digital Corporation (NYSE: WDC) -- Q1 guidance

• Texas Instruments Inc (NYSE: TXN) -- Q3 guidance

• Staples Inc (NASDAQ: SPLS) -- Q2 earnings, Q3 guidance
• Office Depot Inc (NYSE: ODP) -- Q2 earnings
• Harley Davidson Inc (NYSE: HOG) -- 2H2007 guidance
• Weyerhaeuser Company (NYSE: WY) -- Q3 guidance

Contrary to the words of our economic cheerleaders -- Ben Bernanke and Hank Paulson -- the subprime mortgage meltdown refuses to stay contained. This economic cancer has now spread to the lumber and title insurance industries.

Reuters reports that one of the biggest lumber companies, Weyerhaeuser Company (NYSE: WY), will probably have to close plants and restrict operations because of weak market conditions. This should not come as a surprise since dropping home prices may crimp new home construction -- leading to less demand for lumber, roofing material, nails, concrete, and all the other materials and labor that go into building a house.

But the Wall Street Journal [subscription required] surprised me by reporting that the title insurance industry -- which issues policies that essentially guarantee a homebuyer is the rightful owner of a property -- also is taking a dive. The paper reports that claims against leading title insurers -- due, in part, to a rise in subcontractors who file a lien for unpaid work on a house -- have spiked 52%. Moreover, title insurance revenues are down which indicates a drop in new mortgages that require title searches to get approved.

MOST NOTEWORTHY:

• Citigroup downgraded RadioShack (NYSE: RSH) to Sell from Hold on valuation as they believe shares have priced in a more aggressive top-line recovery than the company can deliver over the next 12 months and that margin improvement is likely to slow.

• Merrill downgraded Weyerhauser (NYSE: WY) to Neutral from Buy based on the tighter credit environment and the impact on a potential containerboard divestiture or merger.

• Matrix downgraded shares of Goodyear Tire (NYSE: GT) to Sell from Hold to reflect rising oil prices and negative fundamental trends.

• AG Edwards downgraded Hot Topic (NASDAQ: HOTT) to Sell from Hold to reflect negative performance momentum and a lack of back-to-school prospects.

• Credit Suisse downgraded Unilever (NYSE: UN, UL) to Underperform from Neutral as their analysis suggests the company continues to lose market share...

• Baird cut Franklin Electric (NASDAQ: FELE) to Underperform from Neutral.

• Bear Stearns downgraded Kyphon (NASDAQ: KYPH) to Peer Perform from Outperform.

• Jarden (NYSE: JAH) was cut to Neutral from Buy at Goldman.

• Citigroup downgraded PetroChina (NYSE: PTR) to Hold from Buy.

• Alacatel-Lucent (NYSE: ALU) was downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman.

• Markets closed for Memorial Day holiday.
• PDUFA date for MedImmune Inc's (NASDAQ: MEDI) sBLA for CAIV-T.

• Cisco Systems Inc (NASDAQ: CSCO) to hold webcast at 4:30pm to discuss newly announced Mobility Solutions.
• Verifone Holdings Inc (NYSE: PAY) to report Q2 earnings; conference call at 4:30pm.
• BMC Software Inc (NYSE: BMC) to report Q4 earnings; conference call at 5pm.

• Polo Ralph Lauren Corporation (NYSE: RL) to report Q4 earnings; conference call at 9am.
• ExxonMobil Corporation (NYSE: XOM) to hold shareholders meeting at 10am.

• Tiffany & Co. (NYSE: TIF) to report Q1 earnings; conference call at 8:30am.
• Costco Wholesale Corporation (NASDAQ: COST) to report Q3 earnings; conference call at 11am.
• Dell Inc (NASDAQ: DELL) to report Q1 earnings after market close.
• Novellus Systems Inc (NASDAQ: NVLS) to hold mid-quarter update conference call at 4:30pm.

• Weyerhauser Company (NYSE: WY) to hold analyst meeting at 9am.

MAJOR PAPERS:

• Highlights from today's Wall Street Journal (subscription required):
• Dell Inc (NASDAQ: DELL) has been accused in an investor lawsuit of improper accounting in its partnership with Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC).
• News Corporation's (NYSE: NWS) MySpace is looking to forge partnerships to enter the Chinese market.

• The U.K. Times reported that Rio Tinto plc (NYSE: RTP) has warned that the future of its only operation in the U.K. is bleak, with negotiations on its future having failed to deliver a solution.
• The Washington Post said, according to a National Intelligence report, that the situation in Iraq will get worse and the United States has little control over it.
• Investor's Business Daily's "New America" column mentioned Heelys (NASDAQ: HLYS) positively, saying there is plenty of room for growth in the wheeled sneaker market, although cautioning it could be a fad like rollerblades or the Razr scooter before it.
  
• From BusinessWeek's "Inside Wall Street" column:
• Weyerhaeuser Company (NYSE: WY) named Debra Cafaro, a well-regarded REIT executive, to its board, sending a "clear signal that Weyerhaeuser will be looking at moving its huge timberlands into a REIT," says Mark Wilde of Deutsche Bank.
  
• Archer Daniels Midland Company (NYSE: ADM) should rise to $6 a share this year, says Carl Birkelbach, president of Birkelbach Investment Securities
  
• Access Pharmaceuticals' (NASDAQ: ACCP) two cancer drugs -- one of which, MuGard, has already been O.K.'d by the Food & Drug Administration -- are catching the eye of investors.