Jordan Stein over at Minyanville wrote a great piece about how the economy is causing a little bit of deflation for the salaries of Hollywood stars. As an example, Stein pointed out how Disney (NYSE: DIS) doesn't want to go overboard in terms of compensating Nicolas Cage for his services in the next National Treasure feature. That's a popular franchise, and Cage is arguably a key to its success. But guess what? Doesn't matter, because money is tight, and Hollywood managements need to inject some sanity into negotiations.

Which, of course, has always been the problem. There's never been any sanity when it comes to negotiations in Tinsel Town. Stars are overpaid, and they take too much of the gross dollars generated by celluloid assets. If we were talking about private studios, I wouldn't mind. But I own shares of Disney and believe that overpaid talent is one reason why the stock hasn't done much over a decade.

However, I'm not so sure that things are changing that much in Hollywood. If you read the entire article that Stein referenced, you'll note that it implies that individuals such as Will Smith and Johnny Depp aren't seeing reductions in their compensation packages. It might be great that Mickey Rourke may have been offered only $250,000 by Marvel (NYSE: MVL) for an opportunity to be in the Iron Man sequel, but unless bigger stars see reductions in their bottom lines, then the system cannot truly change.

Continue reading Is the economy hurting Hollywood paychecks?

Is the economy hurting Hollywood paychecks? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Sat, 24 Jan 2009 15:10:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

So the market said yes to Time Warner's (NYSE: TWX) new movie starring Jim Carrey, Yes Man. I know, that's an awful pun, and I'd be willing to bet that other articles about this past weekend's box office results said something similar. Sometimes you just can't resist. But, yes, Yes Man ruled at domestic multiplexes and grossed about $18 million according to early estimates from Boxofficemojo.

Here's the thing, though -- is an $18 million opening that great for Jim Carrey? Furthermore, as of the early estimates, Sony's (NYSE: SNE) Seven Pounds, the number-two film, actually grossed only $2 million less than Yes Man, and to add further insult, its per-theater average was higher. Shouldn't Carrey's star power have guaranteed a wider margin of victory? For that matter, what's Will Smith, the star of Pounds, doing in second place?

It just goes to show institutional shareholders of media companies that big star salaries simply do not guarantee runaway hits on the silver screen (I keep hoping that they'll complain about celebrity compensation, but so far, there have been no takers whatsoever).

Continue reading Jim Carrey scores a hit right before the holidays -- but how strong was it?

Jim Carrey scores a hit right before the holidays -- but how strong was it? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 22 Dec 2008 10:44:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

I had high hopes for News Corp.'s (NYSE: NWS) remake of one of my favorite sci-fi films from the 50s, The Day the Earth Stood Still. I'm not sure what everyone else was thinking, but I figured the film would take in at least $50 million at the opening weekend.

Unfortunately, according to early estimates at Boxofficemojo, Earth could only scare up around $31 million in its first three days at domestic theaters. In fact, compared to last year's I Am Legend from Time Warner (NYSE: TWX), which came out at about the same time, and was another remake of a famous cult sci-fi flick as well, it performed poorly as Legend, starring Will Smith, grossed $77 million in its debut weekend.

Keanu Reeves starred as the alien Klaatu in Earth. One has to wonder how the box-office dynamic would have changed if Will Smith was in the role. Of course, maybe the movie would have been more expensive to make (although I'm sure Reeves doesn't come cheap, either). I heard great word on the remake from a friend of mine who saw it over the weekend on an IMAX (NASDAQ: IMAX) screen and really enjoyed it. He was a bit surprised when I suggested that the film only pulled in around $30 million.

Continue reading 'The Day the Earth Stood Still' did not obliterate my expectations

'The Day the Earth Stood Still' did not obliterate my expectations originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 15 Dec 2008 08:41:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Well, I was wrong about Sony's (NYSE: SNE) Hancock. Sure, I knew it was going to be the number-one movie over the Fourth of July holiday period, but come on, who didn't know that? As of this writing, Boxofficemojo estimates that the Will Smith picture took in $66 million over the three-day timeframe. However, Hancock had opened earlier in the week, and I thought that, by the time all was said and done, the film's cumulative gross by now would have been well over $100 million. Well, the cume now stands at around $107 million. I was thinking more along the lines of $125 million and above for a total tally by this point. Hancock came in a little weaker than expected, considering what seemed to be a very awesome cinematic experience as communicated by the marketing campaign.

Disney's (NYSE: DIS) Wall-E came in second over the weekend with around $33 million. The Pixar cartoon now has about $128 million to its credit. Wanted, distributed by General Electric's (NYSE: GE) Universal, was third with over $20 million. Time Warner's (NYSE: TWX) Get Smart and DreamWorks Animation's (NYSE: DWA) Kung Fu Panda were fourth and fifth, respectively. Here's an interesting note on Get Smart. Even after the holiday weekend, and after having been out in the marketplace for a few weekends, it still has yet to reach a total gross of $100 million. As of now, it has a little over $98 million in the bank. That number may change a bit when final figures are in, but in this day and age, when a summer movie with such star power (it stars Steve Carell) doesn't reach $100 million by the second weekend or sooner, it can't be considered super blockbuster material.

Well, it wasn't a terribly exciting box-office weekend. Frankly, I thought there would be more fireworks for the Fourth from these films. And as for all the stocks mentioned here, the bear market will probably keep them weak. The most direct play on the movie business is obviously DreamWorks Animation, and I would wait for that one to come in more before thinking about buying.

Disclosure: I own Disney and GE; positions can change at any time.

Sony's Hancock wins holiday race originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Sun, 06 Jul 2008 18:10:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

It's the Fourth of July weekend, and movie studios want to capture as much money for their films as possible, even if they've already been in the theaters for several weeks. No matter what, though, Sony (NYSE: SNE)'s Hancock, starring the always excellent Will Smith, is set to be the financial superhero of the weekend. Already, as of this writing, the film has taken in about $24 million through Wednesday, according to Boxofficemojo. The movie had some showings on Tuesday before its official debut in the middle of the week. It was number one on Wednesday, followed by Disney (NYSE: DIS)'s Wall-E. The robot flick so far has a total tally of around $86 million.

Poor Marvel (NYSE: MVL) and its The Incredible Hulk project. Will anybody be interested in seeing the big green guy now that Hancock is in the marketplace? Indeed, Hulk took in less than a million bucks on Wednesday, and it ranked number seven for that day. Looks like the Hulk fever is winding down at the multiplex, and it looks like Marvel's stock has had its run for the time being. The stock closed on Thursday at $31.20, well away from the 52-week high of $37.41. I still hold Marvel shares, and although there are no big catalysts on the immediate horizon, I have a long-term outlook on the company. Still, the trader in me wishes that I had lightened up on the position back at the $37 level to book some gains.

Hancock should do well north of $100 million once the Fourth of July holiday period has passed. The marketing, in my opinion, is very compelling, and from what I know about the story, it's a smart idea that provides a nice balance to the frivolous plots of Iron Man and Hulk (I'm using the term "frivolous" here with affection). Sony's scored a hit, maybe even a new franchise (I haven't seen the film, so I can't say if a sequel is feasible or not within the confines of the concept), but it won't do much to move the company's stock. Those looking to play the Hollywood game might want to wait for Marvel to pull back further from current levels.

Disclosure: I own Disney and Marvel; positions can change at any time.

'Hancock' will dominate the July 4th weekend originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 04 Jul 2008 11:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

I didn't think Disney's (NYSE: DIS) Wall-E movie would do as well as it did over the weekend. I thought $60 million was too much to hope for (see my previous piece on the subject). I was wrong. According to Boxofficemojo, the Pixar picture pulled in more than $62 million at domestic theaters and came out on top.

Assuming the film continues to do well in upcoming weekends, Wall-E should provide a nice counterbalance to the relative disappointment of Disney's Prince Caspian project that was released in May. While Wall-E won't move Disney's stock all by itself, the movie and its characters should help drive the studio segment in future quarters, as well as provide some opportunities for promotions and initiatives in other parts of the company, such as the theme parks.

Wanted, distributed by General Electric's (NYSE: GE) Universal, debuted in second place with a haul of more than $50 million. The movie, starring Angelina Jolie, had some snazzy, Matrix-like commercials powering its appeal. I can see why the numbers were big on this one. Time Warner (NYSE: TWX) and Get Smart didn't stand a chance against Wanted. It dropped two spots to third place with a tally of $20 million. And, no, I still don't find Steve Carell funny.

Continue reading Disney's "Wall-E" beats my expectations

Disney's "Wall-E" beats my expectations originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 30 Jun 2008 09:59:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Continue reading Nicolas Cage helps give Disney a holiday present

Nicolas Cage helps give Disney a holiday present originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 24 Dec 2007 16:56:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

I've never really viewed myself as particularly talented. I've viewed myself as slightly above average in talent. And where I excel is ridiculous, sickening, work ethic. You know, while the other guy's sleeping? I'm working. While the other guy's eatin'? I'm working. While the other guy's making love, I mean, I'm making love, too. But I'm working really hard at it.

Will Smith sets box office record with 'I am Legend' originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 17 Dec 2007 09:40:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.