I am not sure that Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM) and Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE) will make it through the month as public companies. Barron's quoted an anonymous senior official -- who sounds an awful lot like Hank Paulson to me -- that unless Fannie and Freddie could raise at least $10 billion each, the government would bail them out while wiping out common shareholders and eliminating the preferred dividend. Since then, investors have been dumping shares of Fannie and Freddie like there's no tomorrow.

Who wins and who loses if Fannie and Freddie's shareholders are wiped out? As I said on CNBC's Power Lunch this afternoon, the winners are investors who shorted Fannie and Freddie years ago and are now reaping enormous profits. I also think that some Wall Street investment banks will win big as they get the job of selling off Fannie and Freddie's pieces. The losers are their biggest common and preferred shareholders -- including some well known mutual funds.

The winners are:

• Jim Rogers, Rogers Holdings - Rogers originally shorted Freddie and Fannie in March 2006 and appeared on Bloomberg on November 20, 2007 to discuss why he did it and where he thought their stocks would go.
• Doug Noland, Prudent Bear - As I posted, since the late 1990s, Noland's research has concluded that Freddie and Fannie would "shudder" when the US credit bubble eventually burst. Noland has profited from the short bets he made -- but he says it is emotionally painful to watch them fail.

Continue reading Fannie/Freddie Flameout: Winners and Losers

Fannie/Freddie Flameout: Winners and Losers originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 21 Aug 2008 10:17:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Ford, Imperial Tobacco and Schlumberger were today's noteworthy upgrades:

• Soleil upgraded Ford Motor Company (NYSE: F) to Buy from Sell as they expect improved sentiment towards shares given new product launches, cost cutting efforts, North American capacity reductions, and better than expected performance on the cash side.
• Imperial Tobacco Group Plc (NYSE: ITY) was raised to Buy from Hold at Citigroup to reflect FX benefits and pricing in continental Europe.
• Morgan Stanley upgraded shares of Schlumberger Limited (NYSE: SLB) to Overweight from Equal Weight following the company's Q1 results, as they expect consensus estimates to move higher over the coming quarters.

OTHER UPGRADES:

• B. Riley raised Wilmington Trust Corporation (NYSE: WL) to Buy from Neutral.
• Morgan Keegan upgraded Healthcare Services Group Inc (NASDAQ: HCSG) to Outperform from Market Perform.
• Bear upgraded MGIC Investment Corporation (NYSE: MTG) to Outperform from Peer Perform.

Analyst upgrades: Ford, Imperial Tobacco, Schlumberger originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 21 Apr 2008 10:40:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

MOST NOTEWORTHY:

• B. Riley initiated Wilmington Trust (NYSE: WL) with a Neutral rating and $33 target and points out the company has greater exposure to construction and development loans than most small- and mid-cap banks.
  
• DiamondRock Hospitality (NYSE: DRH) was assumed with a Market perform rating and $13.50 target at Keefe Bruyette. The firm sees limited upside given expectations for continued moderation in RevPAR trends, limited operating margin expansion and an uncertain economic outlook.
  
• Rodman & Renshaw believes that the issues that have plagued Omrix Biopharm (NASDAQ: OMRI) are now largely reflected in shares and that the company has improved visibility on business fundamentals with solid execution. The firm assumed coverage with an Outperform rating and $18 target.

• UBS initiated Millennium Pharma (NASDAQ: MLNM) with a Neutral rating and $16 target.
  
• Credit Suisse initiated Ryanair (NASDAQ: RYAAY) with a Neutral rating.
  
• Morgan Stanley started Brasken (NYSE: BAK) with an Underweight rating.

Analyst initiations: WL, DRH and OMRI originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 31 Mar 2008 11:44:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

For more earnings forecasts, see Peter Cohan's Earnings expectations for 10 banks tell a mixed story.

Thomson Financial expects Wilmington Trust (NYSE: WL) to earn $0.65 when it announces its fourth-quarter results on January 18th. That's down 7% from the same period in 2006, when it earned $0.70.

Wilmington Trust is a Wilmington, DE-based bank that has four segments: Regional Banking, Wealth Advisory Services, Corporate Client Services, and Affiliate Money Managers. In the last year, its revenues were $726 million and its net income totaled $186 million. Its stock has fallen 27% in the last year and it trades at a P/E of 11.4.

It has a mixed record when it comes to meeting estimates. In the second quarter of 2007, Wilmington Trust beat the consensus estimate by 4.4%, but in the third quarter it missed by 9.9%. My hunch is that this quarter, Wilmington Trust will miss expectations.

Peter Cohan is president of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter. He has no financial interest in Wilmington Trust securities.

Wilmington Trust earnings expected to fall 7% originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Sun, 13 Jan 2008 14:55:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.