The nutshell on the 2009 World Economic Forum held in Davos? It was a conference where nearly everyone agreed that the financial crisis started in and is primarily the result of U.S. policy errors, but agreed on little else after that.

Further, the Davos gathering produced almost no new insights regarding the nature of the crisis beyond what is already known: that excessive leverage throughout the system, arcane and in some cases Frankenstein-like derivatives, inadequate national-level financial regulation, and the collapse of demand, set in motion first the U.S. recession, then the credit crunch, then the global recession.

While the rich and famous hobnob in Davos at the World Economic Forum, gloom and doom seem to rule the day. On tap is a bleak view for global economies as concerns surface that the world may slip into a severe recession following the bursting of the housing bubble.

It takes some good old American muscle to brighten up the somber mood.

In an article today on Marketwatch, James Owens, CEO of global construction equipment giant Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT), cited growth in emerging economies and confidence that the U.S. will suffer no more than a mild downturn as the reasons behind his upbeat attitude.

"I think I'm considerably more optimistic than the mood here in Davos," said Owens.

CAT has reason to be optimistic. According to Marketwatch, Caterpillar reported a fourth-quarter profit of $975 million, or $1.50 a share, up from $882 million, or $1.32 a share, earned in the final three months of 2006. Revenue rose 10% to $12.14 billion.

While numerous talking heads duke it out in Davos, I'll put my chips on the CAT.

Zack Miller is the Managing Editor of IsraelNewsletter.com, a former equity analyst for a leading multinational hedge fund. Author does not own CAT.

Billionaire investor George Soros said a major casualty from the U.S. subprime crisis will be the 60-year reign of the dollar-based credit boom, which he says will come to an end, Bloomberg News reported Wednesday.

"The current crisis is not only the bust that follows the housing boom, it's basically the end of a 60-year period of continuing credit expansion based on the dollar as the reserve currency,'' Soros said in a debate today at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, Bloomberg reported. "Now the rest of the world is increasingly unwilling to accumulate dollars.''

However, Soros was careful to point out that he believes the dollar is still the most important reserve currency in the world and will remain so, according to Bloomberg.

In a report released by the World Economic Forum (WEF), the threat of a US recession placed higher than terrorism as the biggest threat to the world for 2008. "Fears of a U.S. recession coupled with a sudden spike in oil prices replaced terrorism, pandemic disease outbreaks and short-term disasters resulting from climate change as the issues global business leaders are most worried about, said the "Global Risks 2008" report." Well at least they got it right vis-a-vis climate change, or lack thereof.

There is no question that US economic growth is slowing led by the decline in housing, and the impact that slowing growth will have on the global economy as well as thestock market is an important issue. It also will play a big role in the upcoming Presidential elections. But the most important issue?

The report added, " The third major risk - dwindling food supplies - has become an issue not just for developing nations but also for rich countries," the report said, citing steep price increases for staple foods over the past year.