
Continuing with our defensive stock series for a choppy/consolidating market: generally, one would not list a tech stock as a defensive play.
Cisco Systems (NYSE:
CSCO) is an exception.
Two fundamentals warrant the advocacy of Cisco as a defensive play: 1) the company supplies the majority of networking equipment used for the internet -- it is the world's largest supplier of computer internetworking systems, and 2) emerging market growth. So long as the internet remains intrinsic to business processes in emerging/developed markets and so long as emerging markets continue to grow, Cisco will benefit in the years ahead. Analysts project a roughly 15%-20% annual revenue growth rate for CSCO for 2007-2009. Another positive: look for CSCO's advanced technologies unit to continue to contribute impressively to the company's revenue on video system business.
Further, we'll skip for this review the debate regarding the possible "broadband shortage" and focus instead on the counterargument. Assume deteriorating conditions in the U.S., perpetually high energy prices slowing global growth, and increased protectionist sentiment. The impact on Cisco? Most likely, CSCO keeps growing, albeit at a slower rate, but it will grow, nonetheless. CSCO's shares closed Wednesday down 28 cents to $31.26.
[Note: Technical analysis agnostics stop reading here; all others continue.]
Technically,
Cisco's chart is strong. True, the stock has recently retreated from a 52-week high of around $33.60, but this came after an impressive advance from the $26-range. Cisco has dipped below its 50-day moving average for the second time in four months, but it's been above its 200-day moving average for more than a year. The p/e of 27 is elevated, but this is not an unreasonable p/e, given CSCO' s likely strong revenue growth.
Stock Analysis: Cisco (CSCO) is a moderate-risk stock not suitable for low-risk investors. Investors with an investment horizon longer than 1 year should be rewarded from CSCO's shares. Sell/Stop Loss: $22.