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Best & Worst in Money 2008: Most unexpected brand castoff

This post is part of AOL Money & Finance's Best & Worst in Money 2008 feature.

There have always been brand decisions that seem to come out of left field. Some make you wonder what they were thinking, while others make you wonder what took so long. The year 2008 was no exception.

It came as something of a surprise when in June Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE: XOM) announced that it would sell off many of its retail gasoline stations to local owners. While Exxon continued to post record quarterly earnings, and fuel prices spiked to all-time highs earlier this year, gasoline retailers in fact have faced razor-thin margins and fierce competition. It would take a significant boost in prices to make gas stations profitable, a notion that didn't seem to worthwhile back in June. Wonder what they think of that decision now that gasoline prices have fallen to a multiyear low?

I recall when Kinko's, the photocopying and faxing service provider with the catchy name, seemed to explode out of nowhere. And it seemed a little sad when FedEx Corp. (NYSE: FDX) gobbled up the successful upstart. But it was probably inevitable that the Kinko's name would be phazed out. It took quite a while, but FedEx finally announced eariler this year that it would just that. The newly christened FedEx Office (not so catchy, is it?) wants to shed itself of the image of a photocopying and faxing place to that of a back-office services provider for small to mid sized businesses. But will that turn out to be worth the $891 million they estimate the name change would cost? Time will tell.

Continue reading Best & Worst in Money 2008: Most unexpected brand castoff

Cramer on BloggingStocks: Dow Chemical shakes things up

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says its stunning buy of Rohm & Haas will get people thinking about an energy top.

Just when you thought it was safe to short anything, particularly anything with any commodity exposure, Dow Chemical (NYSE: DOW) (Cramer's Take) comes along and inexplicably pays a gigantic amount of money, $78 in cash, for Rohm & Haas (NYSE: ROH) (Cramer's Take)? My first thought was that it must be a joke. That is inconceivable. A hoax. Something perpetrated by frustrated longs to spook the shorts.

I mean, a chemical company? Two chemical companies? Ground Zero for slowing economic activity and raw costs? People unsure if Dow could even pay its nearly 5% yield? I mean, even last night on my show, I made fun of the idea that people are confusing Becton Dickinson (NYSE: BDX) (Cramer's Take), a medical supply company, with a chemical company because it uses resin.

Amazing.

Continue reading Cramer on BloggingStocks: Dow Chemical shakes things up

Can Hershey market its way out of trouble?

Hershey (NYSE: HSY) is having growth problems. Not only is it tough just navigating this high-inflationary period, but it's difficult keeping up with the competition. Consumers have a lot of candy choices, and even though Hershey is a big brand name in confections, it thinks it can do better in the marketing department. According to this Wall Street Journal (subscription required) piece, Hershey intends on implementing a 20% increase in spending for promotions.

This double-digit jump in marketing is a smart move, but it won't be easy to digest. With the aforementioned inflationary pressures on the rise, Hershey is going to be sufficiently challenged to push growth while balancing the upward trends in input costs. But is there really a choice here? When you have a super brand like Hershey running into trouble, the thing you need to do is get out there and prop up the inherent equity of the product portfolio.

Yet, there's a bit of a conundrum here, I think. Hershey needs to get people to buy its delicious candies (I'm certainly a fan of the awesome Reese's Peanut Butter Cup). Which demographic loves sweets? Younger kids. They would have represented a great group for growth opportunities, but Hershey has to be careful about marketing too much to this demo since the country has, rightly so, been focusing on healthy alternatives to fatty foods. Even though Hershey has been trying to make some of its portfolio healthier, the flagship brands will always be, one assumes, sugary and full of empty calories. In fact, Hershey is more than aware of this issue, as this corporate link demonstrates.

Continue reading Can Hershey market its way out of trouble?

Cramer on BloggingStocks: Heinz, P&G overcome rising costs

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says they have successfully increased price, and their stocks have room to run.

It's tough not to be a Pollyanna after talking to Bill Johnson, the CEO of Heinz (NYSE: HNZ) (Cramer's Take), and after reading the Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG) (Cramer's Take) quarterly transcript. Both of these companies have had to deal with hundreds and hundreds of millions of dollars of raw cost increases, and both have not only come through with flying colors but are more profitable than I bet even they thought they could be.

PG is amazing. Almost every business was up much more than people thought possible, with divisions like razors and hair care (shampoo) so strong that you would think that suddenly a large part of the populace has decided to start shaving and shampooing for the first time.

Innovations, like the Fusion blade, have produced remarkable returns in a short time, as Fusion is yet another billion-dollar brand that didn't exist a couple of years ago.

Continue reading Cramer on BloggingStocks: Heinz, P&G overcome rising costs

Will Wrigley deal push Hershey into the arms of Cadbury?

Shares of Hershey Co. (NYSE: HSY) have jumped more than 6% on the news of the $23 billion takeover of Wm. J. Wrigley Co. (NYSE: WWY) by Mars Inc. and Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (NYSE: BRK.A) as investors bet that the maker of the eponymous chocolate bar won't stay independent for long.

Hershey, though, is a basket case thanks to soaring commodity costs and hopefully the growing interest in healthier eating. That will heighten the pressure on Hershey management to do a deal with Cadbury Schweppes Plc. or find another sugar daddy (pun intended).

The case for a merger between Cadbury and Hershey are pretty compelling as Reuters notes.

"The deal would have clear strategic logic, as Cadbury, the world's biggest confectionery group, lacks presence in the U.S. chocolate market, while Hershey is looking to expand overseas," according to the news service.

During the first quarter earnings conference call, Chief Executive David West sounded upbeat, saying the company was "making progress, while it is slower than we would like, we do see the initial signs of improving marketplace trends." He has high hopes for new products such as the Hershey Bliss. Investors, though, may not be patient.

The Hershey Trust Co., the chocolate company's largest shareholder, has resisted buyout offers in the past from Wrigley and has vowed to keep the company independent. You have to figure that the trust's board will change its tune at the right price.

Buffett chews on a mega deal

On CNBC today, Warren Buffett talked about politics, foreign currency – and oh, his financing of Mars's $23 billion deal for Wrigley (NYSE: WWY). He likes the deal for a variety of core reasons: a sustainable long-term business, strong management and the fact that the business is something that's easy to understand (chewing gum is fairly basic, right?)

Yes, this is vintage Buffett.

As usual, the deal started with a phone call to the oracle of Omaha, and he wasted little time in getting things moving.

Wrigley is the largest maker of gum and Mars is a large maker of candies, with Snickers, M&Ms and so on in its arsenal of products. In all likelihood, this deal will spur further M&A activity in the global sector. Such deals will help companies deal with spiking commodities' prices as well as the difficulties in creating new brands.

What's more, both Wrigley and Mars are family dynasties. The former got its start in 1891 and the latter was launched in 1911. Basically, for such firms to link up, it's important that the principals understand the complexities of family dynamics. And, for the most part, Buffett seems to understand such things. In other words, he is a value-added investor who takes the long view. More importantly, he has a war chest of over $40 billion. So as time goes by – and more family businesses look to consolidate -- I'm sure Buffett will get more phone calls.

Tom Taulli is the author of various books, including The Complete M&A Handbook (www.mergerbook.com) and is also a principal in Averiware, which provides an ERP system to small and midsize businesses.

Option Update: Wrigley volatility flat into WSJ report of Mars-Buffett deal

Mars Inc. and Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.B) were close to a pact to acquire WM. Wrigley Jr.Co (NYSE: WWY) for more than $22 billion according to people familiar with the situation at The Wall Street Journal.

WWY over all option implied volatility of 24 is near its 26-week average according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional price risk.

Options Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

Cramer on BloggingStocks: Nat gas dip was profit-taking, nothing more

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says it's not a strong-dollar sell -- the story here is still too good.

Why did natural gas go down last week? What was that? Inventories were down. The commodity price was up. The fuel itself is green. It is better than ethanol and it is being used to fuel an increasing numbers of cars and trucks.

The whole move down had to have been triggered by something, right? Yeah, how about the fact that the stocks were up a lot and were due for some profit-taking.

Recall that the real "reason" they went down is that the dollar "got strong," and that was supposed to trigger commodity deflation; natural gas is a commodity and is therefore going to go down. (Barron's made this very case this weekend, oblivious to the facts, but loving the theory.)

This kind of thinking is just so stupid that it shows you can get chance after chance after chance to own the fuel that can take care of the nation if we just let it. Of course, the stocks began to come back later in the week as threats of supply cut-offs of crude -- they came true this weekend -- made natural gas declines virtually impossible, despite the "sense" that it peaked. So the money has came back and I believe will continue to come back.

Continue reading Cramer on BloggingStocks: Nat gas dip was profit-taking, nothing more

Even sugar free-gum can be bad for you

For those of us who are fighting the battle of the bulge, sugar free chewing gum has been a savior. For many, spending the day at your desk in front of a computer lends itself to weight gain. Munching on cookies and drinking coffee sure beats carrot sticks and water. But for those trying to diet, cookies have been replaced by sugarless chewing gum. Between myself and fellow BloggingStocks contributor Zack "Peppermint" Miller, we go through about 5 packs of gum a day. Now I find out that this isn't such a good idea.

A report in this week's British Medical Journal, says that foods with Sorbitol can cause intestinal problems, and warned against excessive Sorbitol intake. The warning comes after doctors came across two patients who had chronic diarrhea, abdominal pain and dangerously excessive weight loss. After lengthy investigations which could not identify why the patients were losing so much weight and had chronic diarrhea and pains, a detailed analysis of eating habits put the problem down to eating too much chewing gum with Sorbitol.

If this story starts getting picked up by the mainstream media and we have a panic, like we have had with buttered popcorn, about sugarless chewing gum, look for it to impact companies like Wm. Wrigley Jr. Company (NYSE: WWY), as they are of course leaders in this industry.

Aaron Katsman is the lead Portfolio Manager and Managing Director of America Israel Investment Associates, LLC. and Senior Editor of IsraelNewsletter.com. DISCLOSURE: Writer has no positions in any stock mentioned as of 1/15/08

Analyst upgrades: COF, DRI, MCD and WWY

MOST NOTEWORTHY: McDonald's (MCD), Micron Tech (MU), ManPower (MAN), ASML Holding (ASML) and Wm. Wrigley Jr Co (WWY) were today's notable upgrades:
  • McDonald's (NYSE: MCD) is creating shareholder value by selling 1600 under-performing restaurants and using the money for share buyback programs and dividends and was upgraded to Buy from Hold at Matrix.
  • AG Edwards upgraded Micron (NYSE: MU) to Buy from Hold on the belief notebook unit growth could stay in the 25-30% YoY range over the next two quarters, while desktop growth could pick up from the 4% attained in the June quarter. Up from a low of close to $5 in February, NAND spot prices are in the $8-$9 range for an 8Gb chip over the last few weeks.
  • ManPower (NYSE: MAN) was upgraded to Strong Buy from Hold at Matrix based on the growing demand for search services in Europe, Africa and North America.
  • Friedman Billings upgraded shares of ASML Holding (NASDAQ: ASML) to Outperform from Market Perform and added them to their Top Picks list based on recent checks that indicate a sustainable recovery in lithography tool bookings beyond Q3.
  • Bear upgraded shares of Wrigley (NYSE: WWY) to Peer Perform from Underperform citing the better-then-expected response to competitor Cadbury (CSG), UK momentum in developing markets, and likely strong performance by new gum, "5."
OTHER UPGRADES:
Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).

Analyst downgrades: CHK, CVC, KNOT and WWY

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Knot Inc (KNOT), Cablevision (CVC), Chesapeake Energy Corp (CHK), Green Mountain Coffee (GMCR) and Intermec (IN) were today's noteworthy downgrades:
  • Merriman downgraded shares of Knot Inc (NASDAQ: KNOT) to Neutral from Buy following the company's mixed outlook to reflect poor visibility.
  • Cablevision (NYSE: CVC) was downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Wachovia following its disappointing Q2 report and guidance. The firm does not expect a higher Dolan bid.
  • Wachovia also downgraded shares of Chesapeake Energy Corp (NYSE: CHK) to Market Perform from Outperform. The firm said management expects an equity offering in the next 6-9 months, which is in contrast to recent comments regarding capital discipline and funding plans.
  • Green Mountain Coffee (NASDAQ: GMRC) was downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Piper Jaffray on valuation and tough year/year comparisons.
  • Bear Stearns downgraded Intermec (NYSE: IN) to Underperform from Peer Perform on valuation.

OTHER DOWNGRADES:
  • JMP Securities lowered Kenexa (NASDAQ: KNXA) to Market Perform from Outperform.
Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).

Cadbury to update investors tomorrow

Tomorrow morning, confectionary company Cadbury Schweppes plc (NYSE: CSG) will update its investors on a slate of issues that range from a spin-off of its U.S. drinks unit to taking austerity measures to cut costs. Cadbury is trying to recover from a salmonella scare last year, declines in its U.K. chocolate market share, and an increase in the cost of raw materials.

An overview of what could be discussed:
  • Sale of U.S. drinks business: The company is expected to announce a sale of its U.S. drinks business, which includes 7-Up and Snapple. The New York Times reported that it is currently unclear which bidder is in the lead for the unit - bids came from a group led by Cott, a consortium that included Thomas H. Lee Partners and TPG and a third consortium led by Blackstone Group and KKR. Other possible candidates for the unit could include The Hershey Company (NYSE: HSY) or Tootsie Roll Industries Inc (NYSE: TR), in a deal that could value the unit as high as $16B. Other sources believe Kraft Foods Inc (NYSE: KFT) and Wm. Wrigley Jr. Company (NYSE: WWY) could be potential bidders; Kraft, JP Morgan believes, would have an edge over Wrigley due to greater funding, flexibility and synergies.

Continue reading Cadbury to update investors tomorrow

Newspaper wrap-up 4-4-07: AstraZeneca may lose 38% of its revenue in next 5 years

MAJOR PAPERS:
OTHER PAPERS:
  • According to the U.K. Times, citing research by Prudential Equity Group and AXA Framlington, AstraZeneca (NYSE: AZN) could lose 38% of its revenue because key drug patents, including Arimi-dex, Seroquel and Symbicort, will expire in the next five years.
  • Investor's Business Daily's "The New America" column mentioned Israeli defense firm Elbit Systems Ltd. (NASDAQ: ESLT) positively. Elbit is a small, flexible company that works with industry giants such as the Boeing Co. (NYSE: BA).

Analyst calls 1-9-07

Garmin (NASDAQ:GRMN) trading down 3% pre-market as Merrill Lynch cut the rating to Neutral from Buy based on increasing competitive pressure in GPS in 2007. Company expects strong Q4 results already and shares were up some 60% in 2006.

NCR Corp (NYSE:NCR) was raised to Outperform at R.W.Baird based on unlocking the 1/3 of the value via the Teradata unit announced yesterday morning. Here are some NCR notes regarding that spin-off from yesterday.

Sprint Nextel (NYSE:S) faces several downgrades after lowering guidance and announcing 5,000 job cuts: cut to Sector Perform at CIBC, cut to Neutral at Credit Suisse, cut to Sell at Deutsche Bank.

Chewing gum going out of style? Wrigley (NYSE:WWY) started as an Underperform rating at Bear Stearns due to valuations.

Here is the full analyst snapshot from 24/7 Wall St.

Four smart Dubya's you can love!

These four companies are on my watch list and I love them all. There are plenty of reasons to love my Dubya'sWD-40 (WDFC), Washington Mutual (WM), Wells Fargo Bank (WFC), and Wrigley (WWY) and I would be delighted to own them all...that is if Warren does not beat me to them.

They all pay higher than average dividends, have little or no debt, long illustrious histories, proven successful management, profitability, clear understandable businesses, and much more. I currently own Washington Mutual in my Roth IRA. Warren Buffett owns Wells Fargo and it has been reported he may be buying more. WD-40 and Wrigley are exactly the type of companies that Buffett would buy out in their entirety at the right price.

It is important to have a watch list because companies like these are not often on sale. Like Mr. Buffett I always want to buy at bargain prices. It is possible to make money buying them when they are not on sale but why not have the margin of safety (an important Benjamin Graham concept); there is no rush. Some of the companies/stocks I purchased in the last year were not available at bargain prices for many years prior. PATIENCE, PATIENCE--I watched Federal Express, UPS and Starbucks sadly wanting in but not having the right opportunity.

Continue reading Four smart Dubya's you can love!

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DJIA+20.0310,246.97
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S&P 500-0.071,093.01

Last updated: November 10, 2009: 10:09 PM

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