Analyst Upgrades

• Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) to positive from neutral at Susquehanna.
• tw telecom (TWTC) to outperform from neutral at Cowen.
• Agree Realty (ADC) to buy from neutral at Janney Capital.
• Millicom (MICC) to buy from neutral at Nomura.
• BioMed Realty (BMR) to outperform from market perform at FBR Capital.
• Realty Income (O) to buy from neutral at BofA/Merrill.

Analyst Upgrades

• Sprint (S) was upgraded to neutral from underweight at Piper Jaffray.
• Cree (CREE) was upgraded to outperform from market perform at Morgan Keegan.
• Brocade (BRCD) was upgraded to outperform from market perform at JMP Securities.
• JPMorgan upgraded WuXi PharmaTech (WX) to overweight from neutral.
• Barclays upgraded ITC Holdings (ITC) to overweight from equal weight.
• Centene (CNC) was upgraded to outperform from underperform at Oppenheimer.
• Senior Housing (SNH) was upgraded to buy from hold at Jefferies.
• UBS upgraded Hovnanian (HOV) to neutral from sell.
• GeoResources (GEOI) was upgraded to accumulate from neutral at Madison Williams.
• Compellent (CML) was upgraded to hold from sell at Canaccord.

Analyst Upgrades

• Janney Montgomery upgraded Microsoft (MSFT) to buy from neutral with a $30 price target, citing valuation and expectations for strong Q4 results.
• UBS upgraded SanDisk (SNDK) to buy from neutral based on favorable pricing and mobile design win momentum. The firm raised its target to $55 from $46.
• BMO Capital upgraded Medtronic (MDT) to outperform from market perform based on valuation and its product pipeline. The firm has a $48 price target on the stock.
• Lorillard (LO) and Qualcomm (QCOM) were upgraded to conviction buy from buy at Goldman.
• Monsanto (MON) was upgraded to buy from hold at Citigroup.
• FedEx (FDX) was upgraded to buy from hold at BB&T.

Analyst Upgrades

• Wells Fargo upgraded MasterCard (MA) to outperform from market perform on valuation as it views the sell-off in shares following the company's Q4 results as unwarranted.
• Janney Montgomery upgraded Best Buy (BBY) to buy from neutral on valuation as it believes sentiment has gotten overly negative on the stock. The firm raised its target on shares to $44 from $42.
• Citigroup upgraded Gap (GPS) to buy from hold on valuation following the recent pullback in shares and the company's sales results. The firm raised its price target for the stock to $24 from $23.
• Starwood Hotels (HOT) was upgraded to neutral from underperform at Baird.
• Murphy Oil (MUR) was upgraded to hold from sell at Collins Stewart.
• Motorola (MOT) was upgraded to overweight from equal weight at Barclays.

The focus of last week's preview was on oil and energy companies, and we saw that big oil had a good week, reporting better-than-expected results and record profits driven by high prices in the third quarter. Energy-related companies are well represented again this week and expectations in general remain high.

Early in the week, analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial anticipate that the big earnings gainers will include EOG Resources Inc. (NYSE: EOG), Anadarko Petroleum Corp. (NYSE: APC), and Cimarex Energy Co. (NYSE: XEC), which are expected to post profits of $2.24 per share (up 64.7% from a year ago), $1.48 per share (up 52.7%) and $2.26 per share (up 61.1%) respectively. All three of them have offered positive surprises in recent quarters, and analysts on average recommend buying EOG and Anadarko. Other expected big earnings gainers early in the week include Forest Oil Corp. (NYSE: FST), Pioneer Natural Resources Co. (NYSE: PXD), Comstock Resources Inc. (NYSE: CRK), and MasterCard Inc. (NYSE: MA). The earnings of phosphates producer Innophos Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: IPHS) are expected to have risen 92.3% to $3.37 per share. Innophos beat estimates in the previous quarter by a whopping 210%, and analysts have been impressed with Innophos's lack of debt and pricing gains despite the slowing economy, so, on average, they recommend buying IPHS.

Also early in the week, analysts expect Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co. (NYSE: GT), Kaiser Aluminum Corp. (NASDAQ: KALU), and Oshkosh Corp. (NYSE: OSK) to report that their profits fell 52.9% to $0.33 per share, 45.1% to $0.67 per share, and 41.2% to $0.67 per share, respectively. These companies have tended to beat estimates in recent quarters, and the consensus recommendations of analysts are to buy them. However, PMI Group Inc. (NYSE: PMI), one of the largest private mortgage insurance providers in the U.S., is expected to take another hit as the housing slump drags on. The California-based company is expected to have widened its net loss from $1.04 per share a year ago to $2.43 per share in the most recent quarter. Its shares are down 84.5% from a year ago, and have been trading recently near their 52-week low.

With a turn of the calendar page, we drift into the middle portion of the current quarter, but the earnings season rolls on. Among the many companies scheduled to report quarterly results this coming week are Time Warner Inc. (NYSE: TWX), Cisco Systems Inc. (NASDAQ: CSCO), News Corp. (NYSE: NWS), and Whole Foods Market International (NASDAQ: WFMI). Let's take a look at which companies Wall Street analysts are expecting to be among the top earnings gainers and decliners this week.

Analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial expect the following to report strong earnings growth when compared to the same period of the previous year.

• DRS Technologies Inc. (NYSE: DRS): $0.85 EPS (+95.3%) on revenue of $823.8 million (+12.0%)
• Integrys Energy Group Inc. (NYSE: TEG): $0.40 EPS (+70.0%) on revenue of $2.6 billion (+9.7%)
• Cimarex Energy Co. (NYSE: XEC): $2.53 EPS (+64.4%) on revenue of $599.9 million (+75.4%)
• Forest Oil Corp. (NYSE: FST): $1.51 EPS (+55.6%) on revenue of $456.1 million (+79.1%)
• Devon Energy Corp. (NYSE: DVN): $3.28 EPS (+48.5%) on revenue of $4.1 billion (+38.5%)
• CMS Energy Corp. (NYSE: CMS): $0.13 EPS (+46.2%) on revenue of $1.4 billion (+6.7%)
• Transocean Inc. (NYSE: RIG): $3.23 EPS (+43.0%) on revenue of $3.1 billion (+112.9%)
• Sara Lee Corp. (NYSE: SLE): $0.26 EPS (+38.5%) on revenue of $3.5 billion (+8.9%)
• Williams Companies Inc. (NYSE: WMB): $0.69 EPS (+37.7%) on revenue of $3.4 billion (+20.0%)
• Harris Corp. (NYSE: HRS): $0.99 EPS (+28.3%) on revenue of $1.4 billion (+18.0%)

Given oil's importance in a growing global economy, natural gas and oil companies are likely to continue to experience steady demand for their services/products, and a provider worth a review is Cimarex Energy.

Cimarex Energy (NYSE: XEC) is an independent oil and gas exploration and production company.

In general, analysts see 2-5% production growth in F2008, including impressive drilling activity in the Permian Basin, Mid-Continent Granite Wash, and Gulf Coast Yegua/Cook Mountain regions. The company has proved reserves of more than 1.4 trillion cubic feet of natural gas equivalent.

Meanwhile, given high service costs, XEC is expected to be more selective regarding projects, favoring those projects that meet reservoir size requirements and that do not exceed project cost limits. The Reuters F2008/F2009 EPS consensus estimates for XEC are $4.89/$4.71

The risks? A substantial, sustained decline in oil / natural gas prices would hurt XEC's results. Production underperformance or severe weather also would hurt the company's results.

The First Call mean rating for XEC is: Hold. [6 firms.] Mean 2008 target: $58. [high: $68, low: $50.]

Stock Analysis: Cimarex Energy is a moderate-risk stock not suitable for low-risk investors. Investors with an investment horizon longer than 2 years should be rewarded from XEC's shares. Note: More-cautious investors may consider waiting until XEC pulls-back to $51, but keep in mind that XEC may not retreat to that level. Sell / Stop Loss if you were to purchase shares in this company: $36.

Disclosure: Lazzaro has no positions in stocks. In addition to private real estate holdings, he owns corporate and municipal bonds, and cash certificates of deposit.

The S&P 500 has announced several changes to the index. Ensco International (NYSE:ESV) is replacing BellSouth (NYSE:BLS). Cimarex (NYSE:XEC) will join the S&P Midcap 400. Hornbeck Offshore Services (NYSE:HOS) will join the Small Cap 600.

As the stocks are added to major indices, many index funds will be forced to buy them to stay current with the indices they track. Other "closet index funds" may add them as well. Should you?

If history is any guide, probably not. According to a piece in last week's Wall Street Journal [subscription required]: "... buy stocks that have been removed from the S&P 500. Those that suffered that indignity this year are up 27% on average since removal, while those that were added to the index are up only 1% since joining, notes Paul Hickey of Birinyi Associates."

While there were no stocks demoted in this group (BellSouth is no longer listed as it was acquired by AT&T.), the data would seem to suggest that investors may do well to avoid ESV and possibly HOS and XEC too.