Sirius had an odd way of expressing how it would save money next year. According to the company, "Total synergies, net of the costs to achieve such synergies, for the combined company are expected to be approximately $400 million in 2009." The firm also said it expected positive free cash flow.
All of that good news sent Sirius down almost 9% to $1.91. Volume was heavy at over 35 million shares, so the selling turned into a stampede.
Sirius forgot to mention the one number that Wall St. really wants to see which is what it thinks the revenue for the merger company will hit for 2009. Without that, it is impossible to determine whether any of the cash flow numbers are believable.
Oil was again the headline event today with the price per barrel near $142.00 and talk of $150.00 sooner rather than later. But all in all this day was far "less bad" than it could have been, especially if you consider the selloff yesterday, and consider that this was a Friday ahead of a shortened work week where traders are leery of holding positions. To top it off, the June quarter ends on this coming Monday.
The University of Michigan posted consumer confidence today at a 28-year low as inflationary pressures and fears remain high. The final June reading fell down to 56.4 from 59.8 in May and down from the prior June preliminary release of 56.7.
XMSR and Sirius Satellite (NASDAQ: SIRI) announced a merger of equals in February of 2007. XMSR shareholders will receive 4.6 SIRI shares for each XMSR share.
The FCC Chairman Kevin Martin recommended approval of the SIRI-XMSR merger. The FCC Commissioners could rule on the proposed merger soon.
XMSR July option implied volatility of 114 is above its 26-week average of 79 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.
Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com
Stocks were up today, but less than you might imagine after a large drop of more than $4.00 on oil in late-day prices. So much for Goldman Sachs' raising oil target again today, as well as lifting the oil services sector and upping price targets for some of the sector's stocks .
Here are today's unofficial closing bell index levels:
Evergreen Solar Inc. (NASDAQ: ESLR) was one of the huge winners today with shares up over 20% at $12.33 in today's final minutes. The company announced a huge second round contract that added significantly to its backlog.
Huntsman Corporation (NYSE: HUN) imploded after its private equity buyout was officially notified as "being killed" by the buyers, and shares were down 38% at $12.79 at the end of the day. Mark that as an all-time low.
XM Satellite Radio (NASDAQ: XMSR) - The FCC Chairman Kevin Martin recommended approval of the Sirius Satellite (NASDAQ: SIRI)-XMSR merger. The FCC Commissioners could rule on the proposed merger soon.
XMSR and SIRI announced a merger of equals in February of 2007. XMSR shareholders will receive 4.6 SIRI shares for each XMSR share.
XMSR July option implied volatility of 76 is near its 26-week average according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional price movement.
Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com
The Wall Street Journal reported that after years of rapid grows, many hedge funds are shutting their doors or merging with others, as expansion has dramatically slowed. As a result, the industry is being dominated mostly by big firms, such as Och-Ziff Capital Management Group LLC (NYSE: OZM), D.E. Shaw & Co., and Paulson and Co.
Shares of Ctrip.com International Ltd (NASDAQ: CTRP), China's major Internet travel booker with about 58% of the country's online travel business, have dropped about 30% in the last six weeks alone creating a possible buying opportunity, according to the Wall Street Journal's "Heard in Asia". Travel in China is expected to grow solidly in the long-term and Ctrip.com said it expects revenue to grow 30% for the three months ending June 30 from a year earlier.
In a move that could potentially usher in a new phase in the credit crunch, the Financial Times reported that The Goldman Sachs Group Inc (NYSE: GS) is said to be close to finalizing a plan to restructure a $7B investment vehicle formerly run by Cheyne Capital, a London-based hedge fund.
Too many parties have too much to lose to let this one go through without a fight, TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says.
No, it is not over. If there is one thing we have learned about Sirius (NASDAQ: SIRI) (Cramer's Take)-XM (NASDAQ: XMSR) (Cramer's Take), it is that at every step of the way, people have to try to block it or at least hold it up to the point that someone goes out of business. This is a deal, now much longer in passing than Exxon and Mobil, that still has congressional meddling even right now, still has rearguard activists who might fight the merger on the commission itself even though the FCC's staff has said yes.
Lots of people are confusing the issue of the merger benefits with the merger itself. The benefits will be helpful down the road on both the revenue and the costs, and the caps won't mean that much. What matters, plain and simple, is refinancing. Both companies are always in danger of running out of money.
However, if you know that three years hence -- after the frozen period during which service fees cannot be increased -- the two companies can begin to offer extreme cable pricing, you can go hat in hand to the Street with a good bond deal that people will no longer feel could default.
After months of being "almost" approved, it looks like the FCC may give the merger of Sirius (NASDAQ: SIRI) and XM Satellite (NASDAQ: XMSR) its green light. According toThe Wall Street Journal, "The staff of the Federal Communications Commission has proposed that the agency approve the merger."
The two companies may have to negotiate with the agency on pricing before a final approval is issued. The FCC may put caps on what the newly formed company can charge consumers for the service and satellite receivers may be part of that process.
The real question is whether the approval will come too late to save the companies. Because they operate on different technology platforms, it could take over a year for the merger to gain real cost savings. Worse, each company has over $1 billion in debt. Neither has ever made an operating profit.
Satellite radio is also up against new competition for HD radio and portable media players and multimedia cell handsets. Many of the satellite radios are sold in new cars, but auto sales are down sharply.
Getting an "OK" may be better than the months of waiting had been, but the firms may already be in too much trouble for it to matter. .
Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.
Futures reversed course and are now lower as investors still await Lehman's results.
Deutsche Telekom AG (NYSE: DT)'s T-Mobile will sell Apple Inc (NASDAQ: AAPL)'s 3G iPhone for as little as 1 euro ($1.54) for the 8-gigabyte version together with a 69 euro monthly contract, it said on Monday. Under the new agreements where carriers don't have to share call revenue with Apple, iPhones sales might increase as carriers would subsidise them. It's interesting to note that some carriers have said iPhone users consume 30 times as much data as users of other Internet-enabled phones.
The New York Times reported that Kirk Kerkorian will meet with top executives of Ford Motor Co. (NYSE: F) next week to show support for management and the automaker's turnaround plan. This is after, of course, Kerkorian's Tracinda Corp completed a tender offer on Friday to acquire 20 million shares of Ford for $170 million.
Shares of General Electric (NYSE: GE), already under pressure lately, are down 1.3% in premarket trading after J.P. Morgan Securities downgraded the industrial conglomerate to Neutral from Overweight and cut its 2009 earnings forecast from $2.40 to $2.30 saying GE has more earnings risk and lack of visibility.
U.S. stock futures were a little higher early Monday, reacting mostly to news in the financials again with Lehman Brothers set to report massive quarterly loss, AIG ousting its CEO and Barclays surging in London.
On Friday, U.S. stocks climbed after May CPI report showed core inflation was inline with expectations. The Dow industrials added 165 points, or 1.37%, the S&P 500 rose 20 points, or 1.50%, and the Nasdaq Composite jumped 50 points, or 2.09%.
Not many economic indicator are due for release today: At 8:30 a.m. EDT, June NY Empire State Index, a regional manufacturing reading will be reported. At 9:00 a.m., April net foreign security purchases figures are due out. Apart from official readings, the National Association of Home Builders will release the latest housing market index in the afternoon. Lately some figures have been showing a possible bottoming and it would be interesting to see what the index brings about.
Also, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is due to speak at a Senate Finance Committee health summit.
Meanwhile, oil prices were steady around $135.60 a barrel after Saudi Arabia told U.N. chief Ban Ki-moon over the weekend that it would boost output, and ahead of Saudi meeting of oil producing and consuming nations in Jeddah in more than a month.
This is a deal that should have happened when the Justice Department gave the nod to it. That non-political judgment should have been enough to make it work. But it's been stalled on the FCC's desk since then, and the comments I have heard are incredibly contradictory about when it might be approved, and if it will be approved at all.
FCC chairman Kevin Martin first indicated to people that he didn't even know if the deal would come up any time soon. Then yesterday he said it might come up this month, and they are working hard on it.
Short sellers are guessing that the merger between Sirius (NASDAQ: SIRI) and XM Satellite (NASDAQ: XMSR) will be approved in the fairly near future. Short interest in Sirius fell 29.1 million shares between May 15 and May 30 to 141.3 million.
There are several reasons for the change in sentiment. One is simply the passage of time. The FCC has had the matter for over a year-and-a-half and FCC chairman Kevin Martin recently said a decision would come soon.
Another reason the merger may get green-lighted is that Sirius is probably willing to give up some of the merged company's spectrum for the government to auction off in the hope of creating yet another satellite radio company.
The final and best reason that the FCC may decide to let the marriage move through is that satellite radio is not the big consumer electronics boom that it was a few years ago. There are too many programming competitors in the market. Sirius and XM cannot even make money. There is, in fact, the issue of whether they can survive at all.
The satellite radio business could be in such sad shape that a merger between Sirius (NASDAQ: SIRI) and XM Satellite (NASDAQ: XMSR) may not do either much good. Neither has ever made a net profit. Their subscription growth rates are slowing. And, each has well over $1 billion in long-term debt.
Goldman Sachs recently said the combined company might need to raise $500 million to $1 billion to fund operations.
The editors at The Wall Street Journal figured this all out, perhaps a bit later than most. According to the paper, "The nation's only two satellite services are growing slower than previously while the broader economy is in a slowdown. Fewer people have been buying new cars, which is where the companies derive the bulk of new subscribers."
While the data may be obvious, the conclusions may not be. Companies with over $1 billion in debt and huge operating losses often do not make it, at least not in their current form. If the FCC does not approve the deal or puts a number of restrictions on it, one or both of the companies may have to seek the protection of Chapter 11. Huge debt service against no profits can do that.
Wall Street may believe that whether there is a deal to merge with XM Satellite (NASDAQ: XMSR) or not, Sirius (NASDAQ: SIRI) shares have fallen as far as they are going to. How much more bad news can the company take? Recently, Goldman Sachs said a combined company would need to raise as much as $1 billion for operating costs. Each of the companies already has long-term debt of well over $1 billion.
Subscription growth at Sirius is slowing and it still does not make an operating profit. The market has been concerned that HD radio, new consumer electronics devices, and mult-media phones all mean new competition for the satellite radio operator.
But the short interest in Sirius dropped 18 million shares to 170.4 million, the second largest drop for any company on Nasdaq during the May 15 period.
Trading just above $2.50, SIRI shares may have found a permanent bottom. Its market cap is under $4 billion, a fraction of what it was two years ago. Is there anything left to move it down a lot more? Probably not.
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U.S. stock futures were a little higher early Monday, reacting mostly to news in the financials again with Lehman Brothers set to report massive quarterly loss, AIG ousting its CEO and Barclays surging in London.
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