The stock market is tough enough to navigate without having to deal with roadblocks that have nothing to do with corporate execution of a business plan or normal supply-and-demand dynamics for equity securities.

We make an investment on reasonable assumptions and take the risk that such assumptions pan out. What we can't do is foresee events that are totally outside of the control of the company, economy, or ourselves. For example, if we buy a stock of a company that utilizes acquisitions as part of its strategy, we can safely assume from past examples that the government will approve or disapprove such acquisitions in a reasonable amount of time.

As Jamie Dlugosch mentioned a few days ago, Sirius XM Radio (NASDAQ: SIRI) shares are trading for less than a can of pop at the local gas station. The company, which just completed its merger this past summer, saw its biggest customer -- automakers -- fall on hard times just as it was poised to try and grow as a combined company. Timing is everything; if Sirius were operating back in 2006, it'd be just fine. But it is almost 2009 and the economy is in a world of hurt. So are consumer spending dollars and just about any automaker you look at.

That's a one-two punch for satellite radio. Although I've used satellite radio before, the talk radio and interruption-free decade channels were about it for me. Sirius is now shuffling channels, trying to find a better mix that newer customers would be drawn to, as well as eliminating DJs on some music channels to save costs. When the difference between pay radio and terrestrial radio starts diminishing, that is a signal of the end. Sirius can't expect to have lackluster music programming and a lack of actual DJ personality to be perceived as "better" to existing customers, who could turn off satellite forever and create their own music service with a $50 MP3 player.

Note to Sirius: millions of consumers already do this. They download new music, podcasts and other entertainment directly (and in many cases, for free) and listen to what they want on their portable device over their car stereo systems. Although Sirius XM CEO Mel Karmazin acknowledged that MP3 players, iPods and the like were large competitors to satellite radio, this time his company is probably seeing it in force as it cuts costs and erases one benefit after another that are supposed to come with the $13/month radio service. Satellite Radio will survive the economic downturn, but who knows if it will be a shell of itself with a declining customer base and even more piles of debt after it is all through.

Sirius XM Radio, Inc. (NASDAQ: SIRI) is making good on its promise to make several programming alternatives available to customers after swallowing rival XM Radio back in July.

While SIRI shares sit below $0.50 today as the Dow plummets yet again, the company's newest radio plans are aimed at increasing subscriptions. The new plans are aimed at letting customers have more choice by purchasing programming from both the Sirius side, as well as the XM side.

Looking to boost its revenue and number of subscriptions, Sirius XM Satellite Radio Inc. Thursday announced a range of new programming options that lets subscribers buy programming from both of the recently merged rival services. The "Best of Both" plan actually tips the scales at $16.99/month, which is over $4 higher than the normal $12.95/month subscription. But, that amount does give all XM subscribers to ability to hear Howard Stern while giving Sirius folks the ability to hear Oprah's satellite show.

But the big news is this: a new $6.99/month plan will allow customers to ability to choose 50 "ala carte" channels from either service. That's what many of us having been waiting for: we may only want a few channels but don't want to pay for all of them. If you've been on the satellite radio fence for a while, will you jump on board now for less than $7 a month and get your fix? You won't get Howard or some live sports without additional fees -- and only certain radios are supported -- so be prepared.

When Sirius Radio (NASDAQ: SIRI) bought and closed in on rival XM Radio last month, the first thing Sirius CEO Mel Karmazin did was to look at cost cutting via taking out redundancies from the merged company. Although all kinds of ideas are floating in the air to increase Sirius subscriptions and push its stock price back above the $1 mark, some are questioning how the combined satellite radio company can grow in 2009.

Indeed, Sirius estimated its subscriber base this morning to be at 19.5 million paying subscribers by the end of this year, with growth hitting 21.5 million subscribers by the end of 2009. So, that leaves Sirius with a goal of growing its base two million subscribers next year. Analysts noted that those numbers are a slowdown from 2007's addition of 3.7 million subscribers and 2006's addition of 4.4 million subscribers. Of course, there were two companies offering service those two years -- now there is one.

Unless Sirius can be really aggressive in marketing its aftermarket radios in new vehicles (the subcompact, four-cylinder kind consumers are actually buying) and ensure Sirius radios are offered as standard equipment in the vehicle product mix outside the defunct truck and SUV markets, it will have a tough time hitting 2009 prospects for growth. There are simply too many other alternatives for consumers listening in their cars (iPods and podcasts/downloaded music, anyone?). Karmazin's constant explanation during the XM merger process was that consumers have so much choice about what to listen to and where, that a combined Sirius/XM would not be a monopoly threat. He's right, and it's starting to show as subscriber numbers slow down.

Although the proposed merger between satellite radio companies XM Radio (NASDAQ:XMSR) and Sirius Satellite Radio(NASDAQ:SIRI) is not officially a done deal yet, we sure didn't think XM's signal would have gone off the air so soon like it did yesterday. All joking aside, though, some XM customers were unable to listen to their daily satellite radio fix yesterday, as a software problem slashed service for an unspecified number of XM Radio customers.

From all appearances, this was a smaller but still significant glitch that was based in the complex logistics that bring XM Radio to subscribers nationwide -- as opposed to a complete service outage. XM stated that "Some customers are not receiving a signal ... we don't know the exact number, but some." Companies on the bleeding edge of technology sometimes do have glitches, so chalk this one up to that defense.

According to XM Radio officials, service was set to be restored to the customers who were knocked off their subscriptions last night during the evening hours. While these things are bound to happen do to unforeseen errors, were you miffed at the outage if you were an XM subscriber? Or, investor?

Satellite radio companies XM Satellite Radio Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ: XMSR) and Sirius Satellite Radio Inc. (NASDAQ: SIRI) have continued normal operations as they await the approval on their proposed merger. The stocks, however, declined some 30% since the merger announcement. Although many knew the regulatory approval of the only two satellite radio companies would not be easy, faith in the approval seems to be going lower every day, affecting the share prices of both companies in recent months.

Isn't a merger agreement supposed to hike share price instead of sinking it? Generally, this happens, however, when it involves telecommunications and a threat of possible market monopolization, then the reverse happens. Although, when I liveblogged Sirius's latest quarterly results, CEO Mel Karmazin sounded supremely confident that the merger process would be approved after just a few more roadblocks. Potentially myopic investors don't agree, apparently.

I don't think that this merger is violates antitrust regulation. While it appears that way from the single-minded antitrust regulators, consumers today have more choice on in-car entertainment now than ever before. FM stagnation getting you down? Use that "auxiliary input jack" on most new vehicles and listen to anything from your MP3 collection. Older car? No worries, use and FM transmitter. Still like terrestrial radio? Get HD Radio for those FM broadcasts with CD quality. Antitrust concerns here? Unless you can only use satellite radio (for some odd reason), it's highly doubtful.

XM Radio's Q1 conference call should give XMSR investors a glimpse into what the satellite radio company's performance was for the first part of 2007 as well as how the proposed buyout by competitor Sirius Satellite Radio is faring. See this link for Q1's full report.

When looking at the XM Q1 earnings preview post from earlier this week, will XM blow past its expectations or not make them? In any case, how big will XM's net loss be (there will be no net income, heh). The answer: XM's overall net loss actually narrowed from 2006's Q1 period. This is good news for XMSR shareholders.

With that sentiment, let's roll! Remember to use the "Refresh" button on your browser to refresh your browser every few minutes to ensure you're reading the latest updates. All times below are in EST.

10:01am -- the conference call is starting. CEO Hugh Panero starts going over some quarterly details. For the full results, see this.

The short interest in Sirius Satellite Radio (NASDAQ: SIRI) is still the highest of any company trading on the NASDAQ. The total in April was over 120 million shares. The stock may be low, but a number of investors think it will continue to slip.

Sirius has had an astonishingly poor run since announcing its intent to merge with rival XM Satellite Radio Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ: XMSR). After moving above $4 in late February as Wall Street got excited about the two companies combining, the shares have hit several 52-week lows in the last week and now trade at $2.75.

Sirius faces two issues and both are beyond the company's control. The first is that there has been some resistance, especially in Congress, to the merger of the two satellite radio companies. The concern is based on trying to protect consumers from monopoly pricing.

The second problem is more vexing. Several analysts now believe that without a merger, XM will be the stronger company because of its broader relationship with car companies. Coupled with its high debt and programming stocks, that spells problems for Sirius.

Every day it seems that Sirius cannot go lower. Then it does.

Douglas A. McIntyre is a partner at 24/7 Wall St.

With XM Radio's first-quarter earnings coming out this Thursday, what will the company put forth for its performance? Analysts estimate that the satellite radio broadcaster will lose about $0.40 per share for Q1, which would be up about 33% from the year-ago quarter. This is still deep in loss territory and XM's proposed buyout by competitor Sirius is still uncertain at this time.

If the takeover happens, then both XM Satellite Radio Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ: XMSR) and Sirius Satellite Radio Inc. (NASDAQ: SIRI) will operate under a different financial model that will bring good earnings and profits much faster than either company could achieve operating alone. That is the theory, anyway. It is a pretty generic formula for many consumer-level M&A activity these days. Whether it will pass regulatory scrutiny is another matter and right now it's a guessing game.

Check back here Thursday at 10:30 a.m. EDT as I'll liveblog the XM quarterly conference call and we'll see what the current progress on the buyout is, as well as how Q1's seasonally-low results actually come in. My pick is that XMSR will deliver a $0.35 loss per share for Q1, a bit above analyst estimates. The range is from $0.27 to $0.52 -- what's your take?

Lee Gomes wrote an interesting piece [subscription required] in Wednesday's Wall Street Journal about the possibility of a Sirius/XM merger. When XM Satellite Radio Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: XMSR) and Sirius Satellite Radio Inc. (NASDAQ: SIRI) received permission to set up satellite radio networks back in 1997, they expressly agreed not to merge together. Today however, they are arguing that things are different. What has changed?

For one thing, satellite radio is but one of myriad new options that consumers have for listening to music or other forms of audio entertainment: iPods and podcasts are looking like they will be just as prevalent, if not more so, than satellite radio. The crux of the argument the satellite radio executives are making for the merger is that they're just not that big a part of the industry. They can say whatever they want about a strategic alliance but if the merger is approved it will be a signal to investors that satellite radio just isn't that big a deal; it will be merely one of numerous options and will never be anywhere near the dominant forces that AM and FM radio were in their heyday.

From the consumer side, it appears that there is little to worry about. The companies have pledged that they will bring prices down and offer more stations after a merger. So that sounds like a win-win.

Investors, however, need to ask themselves this question: XM currently has a market cap of $4.03 billion, Sirius' is at $4.76 billion. If these two companies comprise a small enough portion of the entertainment industry for a merger not to be anti-competitive, do you really want to own the stocks?

In-car entertainment is becoming as sophisticated as multi-channel surround sound in the media room these days. Well, to a point. Consumers now have standard old FM and AM radio, hundred-channel satellite radio, iPod and other 10,000-song portable libraries and now even HD Radio. HD Radio is basically the same old content (I think) that is on the standard analog FM band, but with digital clarity and enhanced features.

Do customers care about all this or are they interested in content over "crystal-clear quality"? Both XM Satellite Radio Holdings (NASDAQ: XMSR) and Sirius Satellite Radio (NASDAQ: SIRI) would argue that content is king, and 10+ million American satellite radio customers would back that statement up pretty nicely. What about terrestrial radio's comeback, as in HD Radio?

There are some industry watchers who say the death of terrestrial radio is imminent. Too much annoying advertising, deejays who have little to no function, boring and repetitive play lists and boring content in general are the standard gripes. But when HD Radio receiver units come to Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (NYSE: WMT), will consumers pay for those radios to hear their "boring content" in perfect digital clarity? HD Radio, unlike satellite radio, is free to receive (no monthly costs), which is a boon to many listeners. Add to that the advertising spending the HD Radio partners are planning this year along with national station support (in a fight for survival, no doubt), and Wal-Mart becomes a powerful ally for the aging radio industry. Will consumers even notice though?

The initial fanfare of Sirius Satellite Radio's (NASDAQ:SIRI) purchase of larger rival XM Satellite Radio Holdings(NASDAQ:XMSR) has died down for now. But I am sure it will heat back up in a huge way once Sirius CEO Mel Karmazin brandishes his tongue at federal regulators, who will want to know how combining the two companies into the nation's sole satellite radio provider will benefit consumers.

For one, consumers do have a range of choices for audio entertainment in the car these days. Standard analog terrestrial radio, the newer HD Radio, and portable music players like the iPod can all be seen as competition to satellite radio. This is a very valid argument, and it's hard to refute when the majority of new passenger vehicles and SUVs include an "auxiliary input" on their factory radios to make it easy to listen to that entire music collection on the road from your iPod or other MP3 digital music player.

If we remember history, though, federal regulators blocked a similar proposal from satellite TV operators DirecTV Group (NYSE:DTV) and EchoStar Communications (NASDAQ:DISH) back in 2002. At that time -- and still today -- there was ample competition. Analog (and free) TV, pay TV in for the form of cable television and DVD players were all thought to be the competitors to satellite TV. Federal regulators didn't buy it, and the proposed merger did not happen. What is different here?

Technically, not a whole lot -- except this argument talks about entertainment while mobile, not stationary. Would a combined Sirius/XM be considered a "monopoly" when so many other consumer choices for in-vehicle entertainment exist? In one sense, no. But, if we are talking about a monopoly just in the arena of satellite radio, then yes -- a monopoly would exist in that market after a merger, almost by definition. If programming doesn't fit the needs of consumers and prices go up, a satellite radio consumer would not be able to turn to another satellite radio competitor -- as there wouldn't be one.

This is it -- this may be one of the last financial quarterly reports from Sirius Radio before the company acquires larger rival XM Radio soon (or doesn't.) Sirius is most likely set to have a great quarter in terms of customer additions, as its Q4 period covers the all-important holiday season from last year -- traditionally a huge quarter for just about any industry that sells any product.

So, that's it -- here we go. Please remember to hit the "Refresh" button on your browser regularly, as updates to this liveblog will occur every few minutes or so. All times below are in Eastern Standard Time (EST.)

8:00am -- I'm sitting on the webcast waiting for a starter's pistol to metaphorically go off. Let's see if Sirius can get started within two minutes of its scheduled start time.

8:02am -- I can hear a bunch of people clearing their throats -- nice editing there, Sirius. We are starting.

8:06am -- call is given to CEO Mel Karmazin, who says 2.7 million new customers were gained in FY2006. 67% of net satellite radio additions in Q4 were given to Sirius (over rival XM). This is be best year and quarter in Sirius' history, according to Mel.

8:08am -- Mel is harping on how Sirius has reversed the trend of losing customer adds to XM, as it is now growing faster than its larger rival. Maybe that is why Sirius wanted to acquire XM, eh?

8:10am -- FY2007 is set to see Sirius have a full-year revenue figure of $1 billion -- the fastest growth to a billion in revenue in the "history of radio." Siruis' ARPU (average revenue per user) is now $11.01.

Will Sirius Satellite Radio Inc. (NASDAQ:SIRI) have a good or disappointing fiscal year when it releases full-year and Q4 results tomorrow? Sure, the proposed merger with XM Satellite Radio Holdings (NASDAQ:XMSR) from just over a week ago has propped up shares -- then they fell back down hard as industry pundits figured that the XM/Sirius deal would face a huge amount of regulatory scrutiny.

In fact, one of the conditions for XM and Sirius even existing was that the U.S. regulatory bodies stated that there needed to be two satellite radio competitors -- and now that seems only one may exist if the merger is allowed to happen. In recent times, though, Sirius has picked up more quarterly subscribers than larger rival XM on the back of the Howard Stern show and other competitive programming.

Will all that add up to another blowout subscriber quarter with actual financials that would make most accountants do a double-take? It was well known that it would take years for either XM or Sirius to become profitable when the companies began, as launching satellites and getting tons of programming on the air is not cheap. But, with terrestrial radio full of dead playlists, boring entertainment, and profuse amounts of advertising, Sirius and XM both are reaping in millions of subscribers per year. Did Sirius bust that mark for its latest fiscal year -- and will it meet, beat, or fall short of expected earnings tomorrow morning? Stay tuned to siri.bloggingstocks.com tomorrow at 8 am EST while I liveblog Sirius's latest earnings, and we'll all see together.

Also check out some other earnings reports that we're following, and let us know what you're expecting.

It never ceases to amaze me how some antiquated business models employ extreme protectionism over the control they have over long-established industries and consumer goods segments of the economy.

Resistance to change rums rampant, but in the age of the Internet where information and data -- all kinds of data -- can be freely interchanged in an instant, the days are numbered for some industries unless change occurs, even if it means being dragged into a "new digital world."

The struggles of satellite radio companies like XM Satellite Radio (NASDAQ:XMSR) and Sirius Satellite Radio Inc. (NASDAQ:SIRI) are overshadowed a bit when these companies attempt to give their customers innovative products. Alas, XM Radio just can't seem to get a break for introducing innovative features for its consumers like portable radio receivers that can -- gasp with me -- store content for later viewing. Think of it as a TiVo for radio in a sense as you view this product.

As Michael Fowlkes wrote about earlier, the Recording Industry Cartel Association of America -- the RIAA -- has again flipped its lid and wants to sue XM Radio for allowing customers to "time shift" XM satellite radio programming on certain recording devices. We can argue analog versus digital forever, but since fair-use analog VCRs haven't been illegal for over 20 years, nor should these devices.

Just read the comments over at this blog post on TechDirt -- some of them are so well-written and convincing that you'd bet there is some partial truth to them. Is there?