The BIG news this morning about Microsofts (NASDAQ: MSFT) offer to buy Yahoo Inc. (NASDAQ: YHOO) for $44.6 billion has been thoroughly covered all over the media including numerous posts on our site, so I will not pile on or repeat what you can find elsewhere.

Short and sweet: My view is the perfect timing of the offer, not the offer itself, is the news. Microsoft has been rumored to be chasing Yahoo for quite some time and apparently from the substantial offer it made today (60% over yesterdays closing price) money has not been the issue. Obviously Steve Balmer and friends are willing to pay up -- way up!

The timing of the offer hits Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) when they are down - way down! Google has lost a third of its value over the last month and it has lost its momentum going forward. The stock is down substantially today even though the company reported solid growth. That is a significant change in the playing field. Balmer, a very aggressive businessman has decided to make his move now, potentially stealing the momentum on Wall Street.

Continue reading Microsoft attacks: going after Google not Yahoo

Microsoft attacks: going after Google not Yahoo originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 01 Feb 2008 16:15:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Today Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) is the top Internet search and advertising property there is -- No Question! Yesterday it was something else. Why do investors believe that everything now ends with Google? Have we already reached the end of the internet revolution. Maybe we just think Google has locked up the next stages as well.

Yahoo Inc. (NASDAQ: YHOO) started with two graduate students from Standford University and was all the rage. Google started with two graduate students from Stanford University and now it is all the rage. Do we think Stanford is running out of bright graduate students all of a sudden? I would call them and make an inquiry but surely they would not take me seriously.

Has Google perfected Internet advertising? I don't think so, do you? Will Yahoo, Microsoft Inc. (NASDAQ: MSFT), eBay (NASDAQ: EBAY), News Corp (NYSE: NWS) and all the international players concede an inch of ground more than temporarily?

I am not saying that Google won't eventually conquer the Internet world, (because I do not know) but this feat is by no means as certain as the market currently seems to believe: driving the price of GOOG up $95 per share as I write this story, on no news, in about eight weeks.

Continue reading Serious Money: Google (GOOG) has no moat -- beware of false prophets

Serious Money: Google (GOOG) has no moat -- beware of false prophets originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 02 Oct 2007 15:40:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

There has been more than speculation that Yahoo (NASDAQ: YHOO) is near the center of Microsoft's (NASDAQ: MSFT) radar screen, but perhaps AOL-Yahoo would be better fit. Maybe a deal for AOL will be more likely once Jeff Bewkes replaces Richard Parsons as chief executive of Time Warner (NYSE: TWX). (The Wall Street Journal reported today that Bewkes is likely to take over from CEO Dick Parsons as early as Jan. 1, 2008).

One reason Microsoft does not own Yahoo already is that Yahoo is expensive. Maybe Yahoo has another path to follow. Maybe Yahoo and Time Warner could help each other out. If Time Warner set AOL free to merge with Yahoo than their combined forces might be a better competitor for both Google (NASDAQ: GOOG)and Microsoft.

The current five year deal between AOL and Google made Google the seach engine for the site and since it forked over $1 billlion for 5% of the business, the valuation if it were independant would be $20 billlion. More importantly at the time it was reported that 10% of Googles revenue was generated through AOL. That certainly was incentive to get a deal done. I have seen no current data on this but if it is somewhere in the vicinty then a Yahoo/AOL combination would reduce Googles stranglehold on search and add it to the new company. It might represent as much as a 20% swing in traffic and revenue.

If Yahoo were to be acquired by Microsoft, it would become a part of what is now a very large conglomerate. One that should give some thought to it's own lethargy. Microsoft is losing money on numerous hardware ventures and might be better off refocusing on software, both online and in the business environment. Now that Parsons is stepping aside to let Bewkes lead pehaps there will be the energy and insight to make a move.

Continue reading Future Time Warner (TWX) CEO Jeff Bewkes should consider an AOL-Yahoo deal

Future Time Warner (TWX) CEO Jeff Bewkes should consider an AOL-Yahoo deal originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 17 Sep 2007 18:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Markets made solid gains today moving well in the green. There are a couple of factors that helped lift the market. It is a natural bounce back from the correction; risk of the sub-prime market is coming off the table with the government's attention and intervention, and the summer is ending and we are headed into the fall a time the market typically does better in.

The NYSE had volume of 2.1 billion shares with 2,321 shares advancing while 995 declined for a gain of 101.66 points to close at 9,698.64. On the NASDAQ, 1.6 billion shares traded, 1,969 advanced and 1,065 declined for a gain of 33.88 to 2,630.24.

SILVER STANDARD RESOURCES INC (NASDAQ: SSRI) rose $1.81 (6%) to $31.02. Eastman Kodak (NYSE: EK) gained $1.26 (5%) to $27.93. Apple Inc (NASDAQ: AAPL) moved higher $5.68 (4%) to $144.16.

In options there were 3.5 million puts and 4.5 million calls traded for a put/call ratio of 0.78. There were a couple of options that had heavy volume that cought our attention. BankAmerica Corp. (NYSE: BAC) saw heavy volume on the September 47.50 calls (BACIW) with over 103,000 options trading and the September 45 calls (BACII) moved 90,000 options. BAC pays a dividend, so this may be dividend arbitrage. Apple Computer (NASDAQ: AAPL) saw heavy volume on the September 145 calls (APVII) with over 35,000 options trading. Yahoo! Inc (NASDAQ: YHOO) rose $1.24 (5%) to $23.97. Yahoo (NASDAQ: YHOO) saw heavy volume on the January 30 calls (YHQAF) with over 24,000 options trading and the September 25 calls (YHQIE) moved over 23,000 options trading. Bear Stearns reiterated Yahoo at outperform and tech was strong in general today.

Kevin Kersten is an Options Analyst with InvestorsObserver.com. Disclosure note: Mr. Kersten owns and or controls a diversified portfolio of long and short positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about.

Monday Market Rap: YHOO, EK, SSRI, BAC & AAPL originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 04 Sep 2007 17:42:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

In June of 2006, after a month of writing for BloggingStocks, I wrote about our original "Great 8" stocks. Amazingly this is my 300th story - never thought that was possible. It's been fun and educational. During the last few months I started three special sections with the coaxing of Amey Stone and with the coaching of Sarah Gilbert. I decided to go back to the beginning and review the original "Great 8" again and see how my discussion points panned out.

In the past year the Federal Reserve Board has sat on the fence leaving interest rates untouched, however, their hemming and hawing has moved the market at times as fear and greed and speculation had the usual effect of jiggling the market from time to time. Housing starts have fallen steadly to scary levels in some parts of the country. The Iraq war is still on the front pages as the death toll increases and President Bush's influence evaporates.

In last year's report I said "there are no bargains yet, but there are some very interesting developments in the fundamentals" - - so what now?

Apple Inc (NASDAQ: AAPL) was the big winner to the upside in the past year followed by Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG). Time Warner Inc. (NYSE: TWX) aided by the influence of Carl Icahn, major stock buy-backs and changes in AOL and the cable business, has also performed well. The following were the four things that seemed noteworthy at the time. All of them were relevant to what happend.

1. TWX has a very low price-to-book ratio.
2. GE has powerful products to sell -- literally: aircraft and standby power engines, water resource management and equipment. Plus it has a strong dividend.
3. WMT had a very low price-to-sales ratio before and it is still extremely low at .64. While the stock price is going nowhere and has not for years they seem to be creating more shareholder equity. They are a huge company so the prospects are that they move up slowly over time but are not goin to be exciting to watch -- unless they are building one next door to you house.
4. GOOG has an extraordinary return on invested capital (ROIC).

Here's my take on all eight stocks:

Continue reading ONE Year later: AAPL, EBAY, GE, GOOG, MSFT, TWX, WMT, YHOO

ONE Year later: AAPL, EBAY, GE, GOOG, MSFT, TWX, WMT, YHOO originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 26 Jun 2007 18:50:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Last year in the midst of Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) euphoria I wrote Google me this Batman: Do you feel lucky? stating that Google was a great company but was not worth the price. Soon after when I posted 10 Reasons I think Google is going down, I received negative comments suggesting perhaps I shorted the stock just because I thought the price was ridiculous, however, it did go down...and then recovered with numerous positive earning reports and overzealous analysts calls. Google has hit a wall for the time being ( 4 months) and all of the ten reasons remain intact. It is still an overvalued one trick pony.

Now all the analysts making pronouncements about Google being $600 to $800 per share have gone into hiding and the downgrades are starting to appear. They overpaid for YouTube, Doubleclick and $300,000,000 per year for the next three years to News Corp (NYSE: NWS) to gain certain rights to MySpace seems like panic buying rather than shrewd investing.

Yahoo Inc. (NASDAQ: YHOO) has followed this same strategy, buying and buying and buying new pieces to make itself whole and capture market share, and that it did, all in an effort to prop up its sagging share price. Google will be okay in the long run. It will just not be a $250 billion company any time soon, as people hoped and prayed.

Those of you who are new to Bloggingstocks.com can check out my other stories and read Chasing Value or Serious Money to find more potential opportunities and verify my track record as well.

Disclosure: I have never held any position in Google and do not now..

Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the vice president for design and research at an architecture & planning firm. Check out his other posts for BloggingStocks here.

Google me this shareholders: Do you STILL feel lucky? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 15 May 2007 07:40:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Once in a while, out of curiosity, I check the metrics on various companies. Today I decided to fly by Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN) given yesterday's upbeat earnings report. But despite all the good news, what did I find? Simple, the numbers stink! To paraphrase Shakespeare: A dog by any other name... would still smell.

What in the world is going on in the minds of investors that would bid up this company to a valuation over $22 billion and a trailing P/E ratio double that of Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG)? As I write this post AMZN shares are above $56, up over 25%, adding $11.50 to yesterday's price.

The following is an excerpt from the earnings' release:

Net income increased 115% to $111 million in the first quarter, or $0.26 per diluted share, compared with net income of $51 million, or $0.12 per diluted share in first quarter 2006. First quarter 2007 effective tax rate was 23% compared with an effective tax rate of 47% in first quarter 2006.

Continue reading Amazon.com: Everything but the kitchen sink...and the fundamentals

Amazon.com: Everything but the kitchen sink...and the fundamentals originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 25 Apr 2007 14:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

An article in this week's BusinessWeek outlines Yahoo and MSN's plans to "launch their long-awaited Google counterattack." This month, Yahoo will unveil ad technology initiatives while MSN improve will go public with its first search-advertising network, dubbed adCenter.  While Google may be clearly trumping competitors in the online ad race, the article notes Yahoo appears to be following Google's approach by " investing its resources in the intricate science of matching ads to search queries and pages of online content. " And Microsoft's edge over Google may be that it simply knows its customer base: the company has info on more than 250 million users and will tap that data for its contextual ads.

Yahoo, MSN on the (counter) attack with ad intiatives originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 01 May 2006 16:05:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.