When I look at Yahoo! Inc. (NASDAQ: YHOO) as I do periodically, I can not understand its valuation. I still have trouble with the valuation of Internet companies in general I suppose. Yahoo! closed yesterday at $24.95 per share and since it is one of our original eight blogging stocks it is on my watch-list.
During the course of the year I have read many buy (albeit speculative) opinions and it seems to stay in the news every day. But when I look at it as an investment I just cannot make any sense of it. There are many positive things I can think of about the company but a price-to-earnings ratio touching 49 is not one of them. It's too high! (Jim Cramer makes a different evaluation in his earlier post.)
It's nice that Yahoo! has no debt and I suppose if I wanted to speculate I would be encouraged that it is near a 52-week low. However this would not let me rest easy at night because I think that if earnings do not improve significantly it may be worth 35% less in the near future when others see what I see.
I see earnings that are weak and getting weaker. Yahoo! earned less in 2006 than 2005. In 2007 it earned less than 2006. As one of the prime pieces of web real estate this is not a good sign. Not only is Yahoo's earnings poor, but what it does with the earnings are not good either. It has an ROE, ROA and ROI that average about 7.7. so it's clear the company is not making a lot of money, nor does it know what to do with what it is making.
"Yahoo! Reports Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2006 Financial Results: Net income for the fourth quarter of 2006 was $269 million or $0.19 per diluted share (including $56 million of stock-based compensation expense, net of tax, recorded under the fair value method) compared to $683 million or $0.46 per diluted share (including $11 million of stock-based compensation expense, net of tax, recorded under the intrinsic value method) for the same period of 2005."