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Must be time to pick up a little Starbucks

With the strength of this year's equities market, one major company that has not participated in the updraft is Starbucks Corp. (NASDAQ: SBUX). Actually, quite the opposite has happened as the shares have gone from about $36 down to the current price of $26.07. Down ten points has been disappointing, especially in a bull market, but I believe the time has come to re-examine this company and start buying the stock.

Starbucks operates on a fiscal year ending September 30. I estimate that for this year they will earn about $.87 per share, with September 2008 earnings at $1.07 per share. Commensurate revenues look like $9.5 billion this year and $11.4 billion next year. With the market capitalization at $19.3 billion, Starbucks is trading at less than two times next year's revenues. That's one buy signal, as growth companies tend to sell from three to five times forward revenues.

I recommended Starbucks last October to the members of my web site to buy at $29, and then I recommended a sell at $39 in December because the stock price got ahead of itself. I thought the shares could be repurchased in the low $30s sometime in the first half of this year. The stock is well-below that number to the mid $20s. What has happened to Starbucks is not too atypical of excellent long-term growth companies: they hit a small wall or detour along the way. Starbucks has been hampered by just okay same-store sales and rising dairy prices. Although it did not miss the March quarter expectations, it did not provide any upside to that quarter either. The froth came off the stock. The June quarter will more than likely come right in-line with consensus expectations of $2.4 billion of revenues and $.21 in earnings per share.

Continue reading Must be time to pick up a little Starbucks

The big six U.S. banks: Is it time to buy?

The Dow Jones is up over 11% for the year so far and the euphoria on Wall Street has certainly hit Main Street. The one sector that has not participated in this rally is major U.S., large-cap banks. The stock performance of the major six banks has been as low as down 10% to flat -- in other words lousy. The six major banks are Citigroup (NYSE: C), Bank of America (NYSE: BAC), Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC), Wachovia (NYSE: WB) and Washington Mutual (NYSE: WM) and JP Morgan Chase (NYSE: JPM). So is time to start nibbling away at these stocks?

The central issue is the state of the subprime mortgage market. All of these banks are major mortgage players in the United States, from coast to coast. As the earnings season was approaching with first quarter results, many thought the answers would be evident and that the issue would be a memory. All six reported very good, solid first quarter results, and reserve requirements were raised for the year to absorb defaulted mortgages. Washington Mutual explained that they were aggressively working with the subprime customers to refinance their loans before the problems got worse. Wells Fargo, Bank of America, and Wachovia followed suit.

The earnings were strong for the first quarter and guidance for the calender year 2007 stayed the same, no lowering of forward expectations. Dividends are absolutely solid in terms of earnings/dividend coverage, and the yields are mouth-watering. The yields on the big six range from 3.2% to 5.2%.

The stocks have been flat to down as the mortgage issue is not yet totally resolved. The housing market is still a troubling aspect of the economy, with no real relief in sight until at least 2008. That factor has kept these stocks depressed. But remember, you want to buy when no one else is.

Continue reading The big six U.S. banks: Is it time to buy?

Crocs: Is it fairly valued?

Back on February 21, I began a series of articles on Crocs Inc. (NASDAQ: CROX). I have been recommending the stock to the members of the Insiders Insights club of my website since late 2006, when the stock was trading at $40 -- that's before the 2-for-1 split. Those shares are currently at almost $94. On a split basis the stock is above $46. Basically, my members have more than doubled their money in the past six months. Great investment, good timing. What to do now with this controversial company? Where can it go from here?

I have written that Crocs is not a fad, Crocs is an emerging, global phenomenon, and that Crocs even has the opportunity to become the next Nike Inc. (NYSE: NKE). The controversy surrounding Crocs involves the love-it or hate-it relationship with its shoes. People fall very heavily into one camp or another -- there's very little neutrality on this subject!

What makes Crocs a full-blown phenomenon is its extraordinary distribution model. 11,500 domestic-retail, distribution outlets and 12,500 international distribution outlets. Crocs distributes through third-party vendors, therefore not needing its own bricks-and-mortar set-up. It's brilliant as Crocs generates gross margins in the 60%+ range and its "real estate" is someone else's. With this model, Crocs generates operating profit margins in the 25-27% range. This is what appeals to institutional investors! I cannot emphasize this point enough. Young, start-up companies hope -- hope -- to have operating margins in the mid-20's% upon maturity, but to have these margins during the build-up stage is just remarkable. Besides its great sequential quarterly revenue growth, the operating margins "is the story"!

Continue reading Crocs: Is it fairly valued?

Apple will shine this week

Beginning Monday June11, thousands of very technically talented people will descend into San Francisco for the Apple Worldwide Developers Conference 2007. The conference runs through Friday June 15. There are over 100 separate and distinct technical presentations and mini-lab sessions on the schedule. Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) will use the opportunity to make sure everyone in attendance gets a beta-copy of the new Leopard operating system, due out in October, and of course the buzz will be the new iPhone.

Apple has been strategically advertising the iPhone on television and other media with the final message "due out June 29." The early adopters will sing its praises and the various media representatives will be there to capture every word. But what else does Apple have up its sleeve?

I wrote on May 31 that Apple and Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) have emerged as the two distinguished leaders in the technology sector. Both have hit new 52-week highs and the momentum in their respective earnings and revenues is compelling. They have taken over from the old guard.

Rumors have been circulating that Apple and Google will formalize a strategic relationship. Basically, Apple has grown weary of its dependence on Microsoft's (NASDAQ: MSFT) Office Suite, and Apple CEO Steven Jobs has indicated that Mac needs to "catch up." If Apple decides to include the Google suite of internet applications, it could be a blockbuster union of these two titans and a serious blow to Microsoft. Google's suite would include e-mail, spreadsheets, maps, and general document management.

Continue reading Apple will shine this week

Top 25 stocks for the NEXT 25 years: Wind River Systems

The next company in my ongoing series of the top 25 stocks for the NEXT 25 years is Wind River Systems (NASDAQ: WIND). Wind river is headquartered in Alameda, California, and has a market capitalization of $925 million. Wind River Systems is a technology company that virtually touches our daily lives, and yet 99% of us have no clue what Wind River does or how it affects us!

Wind River offers a suite of technical products, primarily software based, that allow software developers and electrical engineers to laser-beam focus the functionality of a semi-conductor chip. Wind's tools are employed to optimize the functionality and the speed of a device. So, in English what does all this mean? Well, for example,the air-bags in an automobile serve a singular, powerful function -- deploying in the event of an accident. Wind River Systems product suite for the automotive industry facilitates the semi-conductor chip that governs the air-bag's "brain center." Does the force or the angle of the impact merit deployment of the air-bag? The decision by the embedded chip is figured out in miliseconds. Wind River's software developed for the chip enables that specific functionality in an instant. It's a single purpose, real-time operating system designed specifically for that application. There, easy right?

Wind River sells its suite of products to the avionics industry, automotive, digital imaging manufacturers, internet router makers, medical device companies, mobile and handset makers. Wind River has established strategic relationships and partnerships with IBM, Intel, Texas Instruments, Motorola, Toshiba MIPS, and many more. Wind's suite of software development, debugging, and testing products are the industry standard for reliability and accuracy. Wind River sells its products worldwide, employing a direct sales and technical force. The complexity of customer projects requires Wind River to be available for training and complex technical support.

Continue reading Top 25 stocks for the NEXT 25 years: Wind River Systems

Top 25 stocks for the NEXT 25 years: CBeyond

The next company in my ongoing series of the top 25 stocks for the NEXT 25 years is CBeyond, Inc (NASDAQ: CBEY). CBeyond has a market capitalization right at $1 billion. The company has an opportunity to be a dominant player in the total communications to the small-to-medium business sector.

CBeyond is a communications service provider (CSP), marketing to the small-to-medium business sector, as defined by 2 to 300 employees. The managed services offered by CBeyond include local voice, long distance and broadband internet access. Other services include e-mail systems, unified messaging, virtual private network (VPN) for remote users, and secure backup and file sharing. Soup to nuts, CBeyond offers the smaller enterprise the full package of communications with ease of use and simplified pricing programs.

The systems are delivered through T1 circuits right on the customer's premise and CBeyond guarantees carrier-grade quality of service and functionality. Most customers sign up for 3- to 5-year contracts, thus providing CBeyond with excellent revenue visibility going forward.

Small-to-medium business enterprises are ripe for bundled services, as CBeyond offers the one-stop shopping convenience for these enterprises. CBeyond monitors the "what's new" factor for its customers and builds in to the contracts, the upgrades when available. This allows the end customer to not be concerned about what is new in the technology world. CBeyond provides the so-called peace-of-mind solution.

Continue reading Top 25 stocks for the NEXT 25 years: CBeyond

Apple at $119 -- a new all-time high

The old Wall Street expression I have heard a million times, mostly in the negative camp is "the company has too many moving parts." Well, the same can be said about Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL), but only in the positive camp. So as Apple hit a new 52-week and all-time high of $119, what is going on? Let's look briefly at all the "moving parts."

Yesterday, it was announced that Apple stock will be included in the S&P 100 as of the end of trading today. It's definitely a prestigious move for Apple, and one the company did not have to request. S&P determines who the member companies will be. Many structured portfolios must buy the shares to keep up with the 100 stocks in the index. Typically these funds finish this chore within three days of the announcement. Apple traded 52 million shares on Wednesday, twice its normal amount.

Apple announced that its Apple TV will soon have the capability of offering the ever-popular YouTube internet video site on its Apple TV set-top box. This is another confirmation of the growing and consumer-driven philosophy at Apple. If the consumer wants it and the addressable market is large enough, Apple will offer it and probably dominate.

Continue reading Apple at $119 -- a new all-time high

Top 25 Stocks for the NEXT 25 Years -- Dick's Sporting Goods

The ninth name in my series of the top 25 stocks for the NEXT 25 years is Dick's Sporting Goods Inc. (NYSE: DKS). Dick's is headquartered in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, and was actually established in 1948. The original concept was revamped and expanded during the past four years, and the company is on a high-growth trajectory. Dick's will be the most dominating purveyor of sporting goods and apparel in the United States.

Dick's stock closed at $53.40 on Friday and has a market capitalization of $2.8 billion. Dick's currently operates 294 stores, most in the eastern United States. The estimated revenue base for the fiscal year ending January 2008 is $3.8 billion, and for earnings per share I am estimating at $2.40. My January 2009 revenue and earnings per share estimates call for $4.5 billion and $2.95.

Dick's is taking advantage of a very fractured market. The preponderance of sporting goods sales occur in the big box retailers like Wal-Mart Stores (NYSE: WMT) or Target Corp. (NYSE: TGT). It's simply a "small department" for these huge general retailers. The other big competitors have been mom-and-pop stores and a few other larger concepts that have struggled mightily. Dick's is both the growth engine and the consolidator in the sporting goods space. The company has room to grow to 1,100-1,200 stores over the next decade. In 2005, Dick's acquired popular Midwestern retailer Galyan's and with it, the terrific locations.

Sporting goods that Dick's offers range from the usual baseball, football, basketball, and hockey equipment and apparel to the eclectic tastes in golf, fishing, hunting, and more. Dick's is attuned to the electronic world and offers the best line of navigational equipment for boaters and fishermen. What Dick's offers to the sportsman is total selection and information by extremely well-trained salespeople.

Continue reading Top 25 Stocks for the NEXT 25 Years -- Dick's Sporting Goods

The Top 25 Stocks for the NEXT 25 Years -- Discussion

I have written up eight companies that have a chance to be among the top 25 stocks for the NEXT 25 years and I thought it might be time for some discussion. You, the readers have sent in quite a bit of responses to the first six names. Most of your responses have been very positive and I certainly appreciate it. But many of you have been raising questions that I believe need a general response.

Let's put a few ideas and myths to rest once and for all.

The top 25 for the NEXT 25 years are bound to be smaller capitalization companies. By definition, they have to be. I recommend a number of companies on my website that are of a larger capitalization, but to make the list, the law of large numbers is against the larger cap names. If a $20 billion market cap names five folds over the next 10 years, that's a great return and no one should be unhappy. But if a $500 million market cap name goes to $20 billion in value, that's a 40 times return. So, the names will be of a smaller cap nature.

With high-growth companies early in their development, don't get hung up on lack of dividends. High growth companies do not pay dividends, nor should they. You want every penny of after-tax earnings to be plowed back into the business. Mature companies tend to pay cash dividends because their growth rates have slowed, the business lines are well-funded, and the excess cash is returned to shareholders. The downfall is that the stocks will not grow as fast in value as a high-growth company that is executing well. The big joke among portfolio managers when Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ: MSFT) declared its one time $3 dividend and initiated a quarterly dividend was that the party was over! When is the funeral? Microsoft was signaling that the high-growth, plow the earnings back into the business era was over. The stock traded sideways for nearly three years as Microsoft tried to get its footing back.

Continue reading The Top 25 Stocks for the NEXT 25 Years -- Discussion

General Motors vs. Toyota: Battle of the Brands

This post is part of our Battle of the Brands feature. Let us know which brand you prefer, and watch out for more Battle of the Brands posts.

The sad part about this subject is watching these two companies going in almost opposite directions -- at least for now. General Motors General Motors Corp. (NYSE: GM) has a current market capitalization of $18 billion versus the behemoth Toyota Motor Corp. (NYSE: TM) with a massive market capitalization of $236 billion, over 13 times bigger than GM. Yet on the surface one would never guess these numbers as their revenues are fairly close in comparison: GM for 2007, estimates revenues of $173 billion, and Toyota's at $200 billion.

It's what's underneath the hood that distinguishes these companies.

Toyota has just come off a five-year period of growth in its per-share earnings at 26% per year, an astounding accomplishment for such a large company. General Motors has experienced flat to negative earnings per share growth over the same five-year period. Toyota is opening new plants, both in Japan and the U.S., to handle demand, while General Motors is closing plants to save costs and resources.

Toyota has set itself apart as the undisputed world leader with the hybrid auto: half combustible engine, half battery powered. The hybrids are still at a price premium to comparable standard combustible, gasoline-powered models, but they will close that gap over the next two or three years. The hybrids come in luxurious lines of the Camry, the Highlander SUV, and the Lexus RX series, as well as the economical Prius model. GM has yet to enter the hybrid field in a serious way.

Continue reading General Motors vs. Toyota: Battle of the Brands

Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA+203.5210,226.94
NASDAQ+41.622,154.06
S&P 500+23.781,093.08

Last updated: November 10, 2009: 05:33 AM

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