Aluminum producer Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA), the first Dow Jones Industrial Component to report earnings, beat estimates when they announced after the bell -- or so the story goes. It continues that this touched off buying interest across the market that had been sorely lacking in prior sessions. There's only one problem: Alcoa's results weren't very good, and they didn't boost the market.

Alcoa opened trading today up more than 5.5% from its close yesterday, before it reported earnings. Going into the final minutes of trading, the stock was down more than 2% -- a tough reversal for those buying on the pop. The company reported a headline EPS of -$0.32, or -$0.26 excluding restructuring charges. This compared to analysts' consensus of -$0.38 on $3.9 billion in revenue.

Quarterly earnings could be up year-over-year by the fourth quarter. A low threshold for improvement, as a result of last year's Q3 financial meltdown, could set the stage for the appearance of a recovery, but the ride from here to there will be a difficult one.

Data from Bloomberg and S&P suggests that profits for stocks comprising the S&P 500 Index may be down 21% next quarter. It's still a double-digit blow, but a better result than Q2's estimated 34% -- and far ahead of Q1's 60% year-over-year fall in profits. The driver of a recovery, however concealed by low expectations, is likely to be a combination of unemployment and consumer spending. Last month, we saw unemployment reach a 26-year high, putting obvious constraints on purchasing.

The second half of the calendar year has begun, and earnings return to the spotlight this week. As usual, Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA) is among the first of the S&P 500 to report quarterly results. For the second quarter in which Alcoa agreed to sell its wire harness and electrical distribution business and its fastening systems business expanded into Morocco, analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters expect the New York-based aluminum producer to report swinging to a net loss of $0.34 per share from a profit of $0.66 per share in the year-ago period. Second quarter revenue is expected to have fallen 48.3% to $3.9 billion. The full-year forecast is currently for a loss of $1.04 per share and revenue of $16.7 billion (-38.0%). Alcoa has missed expectations in the past three quarters, by as much as 17 cents per share. The long-term EPS growth forecast is 10.0%, which is better than the sector average. Alcoa slashed its dividend earlier this year, and the First Call consensus recommendation remains to hold AA. However, TheStreet.com recommends it as an against-the-grain pick. At $9.86, shares are down 12.4% since the beginning of the year, and recently have been bumping up against the 200-day moving average.

Analyst Upgrades

• Merriman upgraded Regal Entertainment (NYSE: RGC) to Buy from Neutral as the analyst is less concerned about Q2 box office performance following the Transformers 2 opening weekend.
• Baird upgraded Ball (NYSE: BLL) to Outperform from Neutral and raised its target to $52 from $46 citing cost cutting initiatives, a volume trough in Q1, and expected earnings growth.
• Morgan Stanley upgraded JCPenney (NYSE: JCP) to Overweight from Equal Weight. The firm cites valuation and gross margin opportunity for the upgrade. The firm has a $35 target on shares.
• KB Home (NYSE: KBH) was raised to Neutral from Underperform at Credit Suisse.
• Cognizant (NASDAQ: CTSH) was upgraded to Market Perform from Underperform at Wachovia.
• Lloyds Banking (NYSE: LYG) was upgraded to Conviction Buy from Neutral at Goldman.

Analyst Upgrades

• Oppenheimer upgraded Genoptix (NASDAQ: GXDX) to Outperform from Perform and raised its target to $44 from $33 based on analysis of oncology testing reimbursement that indicates average revenue per case is within industry norms.
• Deutsche Bank upgraded Legg Mason (NYSE: LM) to Hold from Sell citing reports that an activist investor, Nelson Peltz, has increased its stake in the company. The firm said fundamentals remain weak but the news will likely push shares higher.
• Suntrust upgraded VCA Antech (NASDAQ: WOOF) to Buy from Neutral citing reduced headwinds and favorable risk/reward. The firm has a $30 target on shares.
• SLM Corp. (NYSE: SLM) was upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JPMorgan.
• Diamond Offshore (NYSE: DO) and FMC Technologies (NYSE: FMC) were upgraded to Neutral from Sell at Goldman.

Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA) started off the new earnings season with disappointing results that helped to stifle the recent rally. Was that enough of a sign of what's to come? No, probably not. But the earnings reports start to fly in earnest this week, which should provide a more detailed picture of the state of things.

Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters anticipate that some of the biggest names will prove to be holding their own. Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) is expected to post a profit of $4.91 per share, marginally higher than a year ago, and Johnson & Johnson's (NYSE: JNJ) expected $1.22 per share profit is slightly lower year over year. Even Mattel Inc.'s (NYSE: MAT) estimated loss of $0.13 per share is the same as in the year-ago period.

Here are some highlights from this past week's earnings coverage from BloggingStocks:

• Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. (NASDAQ: BBBY) easily topped Q4 earnings estimates but same-store sales fell.
• Brinker International Inc. (NYSE: EAT) forecast Q3 earnings that are well above analysts' estimates.
• Constellation Brands Inc. (NYSE: STZ) said it narrowed its loss in Q4 despite restructuring costs.
• Excel Maritime Carriers Ltd. (NYSE: EXM) is expected to fall short of Q4 earnings expectations.
• Family Dollar Stores Inc. (NYSE: FDO) reported strong Q2 results and and raised its outlook for Q3.

From TheStreet.com Network

• Uptick Rule Showdown Coming Wednesday
• Treasury to Extend TARP

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says it's a good deal, but there isn't enough risk capital about.

So TALF is dropping off -- not enough money going into the program. Not enough at all. And it worries me.

This program is integral to the turnaround thesis -- we need money to flow into these asset-backed markets. It's a sign that people aren't willing to put in more money than last month -- the program needs a push.

From TheStreet.com Network

• Does Mark-to-Market Matter That Much?
• Leadership Matters: 'Less Worse' Ain't Bad

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says if you don't want to wait for a pullback, look abroad for the next leg or find values at home.

What do you do when everyone knows we have come up too far, too fast; no one knows who is actually buying; and we are going into earnings season?

What do you do when the animal spirits are taking up the market and yet other than a handful companies -- Research In Motion (NASDAQ: RIMM) (Cramer's Take), Xilinx (NASDAQ: XLNX) (Cramer's Take), Corning (NYSE: GLW) (Cramer's Take), Best Buy (NYSE: BBY) (Cramer's Take) and Taiwan Semi (NYSE: TSM) (Cramer's Take) -- almost all companies that have spoken during the "off-season" earnings reports have been dismal?

A new earnings reporting season kicks off this coming week with the quarterly report from Alcoa, the first Dow Jones industrial to report. But investors looking for early signs about the first quarter will be disappointed in what they see from the aluminum producer, assuming that analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters are neither too optimistic or too pessimistic about those results.

• Merriman upgraded shares of Google (NASDAQ: GOOG) to Buy from Neutral after its channel checks indicated a modest increase in ad spend per client in March. The upgrade is based on early indications that search pricing and ad spend are stabilizing, search volume continuing to grow at a double-digit rate, and Merriman's belief that consensus estimates are now at reasonable levels.
  
• Deutsche Bank upgraded shares of Alcoa (NYSE: AA) to Hold from Sell and raised its price target to $8 from $7.30 following the company's asset sales in March as it believes the financial overhang on the stock has been removed.
  
• Suntrust said Providence Service (NASDAQ: PRSC) has returned to profitability through demand stabilization for social services and cost controls. Shares were upgraded to Buy from Neutral.
• Telmex (NYSE: TMX) was upgraded to Neutral from Undeperform at Credit Suisse.
  
• Deutsche Telekom (NYSE: DT) was raised to Market Perform from Underperform at Bernstein.
  
• Autodesk (NASDAQ: ADSK) was lifted to Neutral from Sell at UBS.

Within the past year, the stock price of Alcoa (NYSE: AA), a mega aluminum producer, has gone from a high of $44.78 to a low of $4.97. Although, during the past few weeks, things have perked up. In fact, yesterday Alcoa's stock price surged 17% to $6.40.

The reason? Alcoa was able to drum up interest in its recent financing. In all, the company raised $1.3 billion in stock and convertible notes. Keep in mind that Alcoa expected to raise $1.1 billion.

In the aftermarket, the trading of the new securities was robust -- which certainly delighted traders.