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Chasing Value: New Years Quick Takes

Can you hear me now? Well listen closely, Verizon Communications (VZ) is going to get a bounce from the Apple Inc. (AAPL) iPhone in 2011. Nothing you don't already know. Is there a more sure thing in the coming year? Long term it will fade some, but in 2011 the pent up demand has to have a positive impact.

Communications: The telephone companies everywhere are going to have a good year. Verizon is a great stock for Roth IRA's, paying a 5.41% yield. The dilution of the iPhone market may hurt AT&T, Inc. (T) some, as VZ is helped, but it too is a good long term hold and pays an even higher yield at 5.76%.

If you want to diversify internationally there are multiple good choices and they pay even higher yields.

Continue reading Chasing Value: New Years Quick Takes

Chasing Value: Caterpillar Is Not Dirt Cheap

Companies on a shopping spree either feel their growth is confined or they are feeling flush. In the case of Caterpiller (CAT), which reported that it is going to buy Bucyrus for $8.6 billion, it is the latter. The company has had a terrific year in which it has seen a 76% increase in it's growth. This rapid increase in business has pushed the PEG ratio down to a low 0.86 with the stock trading near its 52- week high.

From what I can gather, the deal between CAT and Bucyrus has merit. Does that mean this is a good time to buy Caterpillar stock? I don't think so. More often than not, stocks trading near their highs will present better entry points with greater value to the more patient investor.

Continue reading Chasing Value: Caterpillar Is Not Dirt Cheap

Chasing Value: Anglo American, Gold or Something Else

Anglo American logoIn recent discussions with some friends, one had bought Anglo American ADR (AAUKY) when I recommended it years ago, and the other thinking about what the current opportunity might be. It seemed time for an update.

I'm into Anglo for $9.80 a share and a spot check has it trading at $23.00 per share in morning trading; a nice 135% return. It was much easier to recommend the stock before. Now that AAUKY is hovering around it's 52-week high of $23.55, it's a tough call. It certainly is not a value play now.

Continue reading Chasing Value: Anglo American, Gold or Something Else

Chasing Value™: 2009 Results Crushed the S&P 500

Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) logoI have always felt that for all the blabbing we do -- or blogging, in my case -- we should try as best we can to be accountable for our good and bad calls. This report is long overdue, but I will post it anyway since all of my past year's picks and results have been made public.

The market was very harsh in the early part of 2009, filling investors fear and trepidation, and sinking to a March 9, 2009 bottom. Perhaps some of the bleeding has stopped, but the economy has not healed as bears and bulls seem to carry the day, or every other day.

Continue reading Chasing Value™: 2009 Results Crushed the S&P 500

Analyst Calls: YHOO, ATHR, JNPR, ADCT, MFC, BHP, AAUKY, RHHBY

Analyst upgrades:
  • ThinkEquity upgraded Yahoo! (YHOO) to Buy from Hold based on valuation, checks that indicate Q2 display/search improvement, search stabilization, improved cost structure, and share repurchases.
  • Societe Generale upgraded Roche Holding (RHHBY) to Buy from Hold based on expectations Avastin will be approved in breast cancer, despite negative FDA briefing documents.
  • FBR Capital upgraded Atheros (ATHR) to Outperform from Market Perform based on valuation and positive checks that indicate powerline networking chips are gaining traction in China. The firm has a $43 price target on the stock.
  • Juniper (JNPR) was upgraded to Buy from Hold at Canaccord.
  • Ultimate Software (ULTI) was upgraded to Buy from Hold at Roth Capital.
  • Liberty Property Trust (LRY) was upgraded to Market Perform at Wells Fargo.
Analyst downgrades:
  • Auriga downgraded ADC Telecomm (ADCT) to Hold from Buy following the company's merger announcement with Tyco Electronics (TEL).
  • TD Newcrest expects Manulife's (MFC) Q2 loss to be worse than expected due to the impact from lower interest rates. The firm cut shares to Hold from Buy.
  • Goldman downgraded Perrigo (PRGO) to Sell from Neutral and lowered its target to $50 from $61. The firm cites relative valuation for the downgrade. Target to $50 from $61.
  • F5 Networks (FFIV) was downgraded to Hold from Buy at Canaccord.
  • Anglo American (AAUKY) and BHP Billiton (BHP) were downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Credit Suisse.
Analyst initiations:
  • QKL Stores (QKLS) was initiated with a Buy rating and $7 price target at Global Hunter.
  • Rodman & Renshaw started Rick's Cabaret (RICK) with an Outperform rating.

Chasing Value: Ten stocks for 2010 -- Part 9 + Apple

Is it time to take a bite out of Apple, Inc (AAPL) or leave it on the vine? After reviewing the current list by examining the stock yields and price-to-cash flow (P/CF) we will take a look at Apple for 2010.

Yesterday I dropped two stocks, but the list is still too long. In the coming weeks there will be more cuts and if I find anything of more value perhaps there will be something new.

Continue reading Chasing Value: Ten stocks for 2010 -- Part 9 + Apple

Chasing Value: Ten stocks for 2010 Part 8: Making some cuts

Today it's time to do some trimming of the fourteen stocks and four options on the contenders list. This review will prioritize the companies by price-to-book (P/B), price-to-sales (P/S) and return-on-equity (ROE). This does not preclude more possible stocks being added and the final list will not be done until the end of the month.

We will also compare recent stock prices to three-year highs to give us a relative idea where the stock floated in rosier times.

Continue reading Chasing Value: Ten stocks for 2010 Part 8: Making some cuts

Chasing Value: Ten stocks for 2010 -- Part 1

There are only seven weeks left in the year, so it is time to start thinking about 2010. If you have been keeping up with my 2009 picks (see: Chasing Value: 2009 blazing picks -- Q3 review ) than you would be aware that the group is up 40% through the third quarter.

This year I bought all of my picks so that I would be riding in the same ship as anyone that might have considered my suggestions.

I will be breaking up my potential picks into three categories; contender, on the fence, and out of the running, until I finalize the list in the last week of the year.

Continue reading Chasing Value: Ten stocks for 2010 -- Part 1

Chasing Value: 2009 blazing picks -- Q3 review

The market continues to befuddle the bears as the third quarter earnings and stock prices continued to move in a positive direction.

During this period Washington has taken charge of the auto industry and helped prop it up with the "cash-for-clunkers" program. They continue to subsidize the real estate market with first-time home buyers incentives, and very low interest rates. The banks are being refueled by the Federal Reserve with interest rates as low as zero, while all the time currency stability has been sacrificed. This has driven gold prices to new highs.

This is the third review of my 2009 stock picks through September 30 (see: Chasing Value: 9 picks for 2009 -- APC, GE, ISRG, WFC and more). This years picks have annihilated index comparisons, so much so that I must attribute some of my good fortune to luck. However, I do believe the original reasoning was sound and the outlier nature of the gains certainly a result of an oversold market living in fear.

Continue reading Chasing Value: 2009 blazing picks -- Q3 review

Analyst upgrades, downgrades and initiations: AXP, BHP, KBH, MSFT, TROW, USB ...

Analyst upgrades:

  • Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) was upgraded to Buy from Hold by Canaccord, which cited the company's strong Q1 results.
  • Pali Capital raised T. Rowe Price (NASDAQ: TROW) to Neutral from Sell following the company's better-than-expected Q3 results.
  • Under Armour (NYSE: UA) was upgraded to Neutral from Negative at Susquehanna following positive checks ahead of the company's Tuesday's Q3 report.
  • Stifel Nicolaus raised American Express (NYSE: AXP) to Buy from Hold, as the firm thinks the company is close to reaching "normalized" earnings.
  • Goldman Sachs upgraded Garmin (NASDAQ: GRMN) to Sell from Conviction Sell.
  • RBC Capital upgraded Noble Energy (NYSE: NBL) to Outperform from Sector Perform.
  • American Superconductor (NASDAQ: AMSC) was upgraded to Outperform from Sector Perform by Pacific Crest.

Continue reading Analyst upgrades, downgrades and initiations: AXP, BHP, KBH, MSFT, TROW, USB ...

Anglo American explains move to OTC

Last week shareholders were surprised to find that Anglo American (OTC: AAUKY) had moved from the Nasdaq to the OTC "pink sheets" with no press release, news or explanation on the company website (see AAUK: Now you see it, now you don't).

After a few inquiries to the company, I received notice that the site had been updated with a full explanation. What I learned is that the Nasdaq listing was not done by Anglo but by several banks that held unsponsored ADR shares and were trading the stock.

Continue reading Anglo American explains move to OTC

AAUKY's mysterious delisting follow-up: a small tidbit of news

Finally I was able to find the smallest crumb of news regarding Anglo American's (OTC: AAUKY) move from the NASDAQ to the over-the-counter (OTC) exchange often referred to as the "pink sheets."

After searching all day yesterday under every rock I could find for an answer to the puzzle and coming up empty, I concluded that this mystery could only be the work of Sherlock Holmes's evil and brilliant nemesis Professor Moriarty. And fitting to the good professor's habit of only leaving the most meager of clues, the following is all I could find to date:

Continue reading AAUKY's mysterious delisting follow-up: a small tidbit of news

AAUK: Now you see it, now you don't

This morning I looked up Anglo American ADR and could not find it. What I found was: "No listing under this symbol". I checked another financial site and nothing. I check the company web site and I found under investor information USD NASDAQ 0.00. Now it was getting very strange.

There was no news anywhere, how could that be?

It turns out that the company is now listed on the "pink sheets", "over the counter" as Anglo American PLC ADS (OTC: AAUKY). There was no news Friday, no news over the weekend, no news this morning, no information under the old symbol, the new symbol or the web site, and no broker knew why there was a change, just that it happened.

Continue reading AAUK: Now you see it, now you don't

Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA-74.9212,454.83
NASDAQ-1.852,837.53
S&P 500-2.861,317.82

Last updated: May 28, 2012: 12:39 AM

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