Analyst Upgrades

• Oppenheimer upgraded Alexion (ALXN) to outperform from perform, citing the recent pullback in shares and expected momentum in the second half of 2010. The firm has a $62 price target for shares.
• FBR Capital upgraded Blue Coat Systems (BCSI) to outperform from market perform, citing positive channel checks and the recent pullback in shares. The firm maintains a $27 price target on the name.
• Needham upgraded Hologic (HOLX) to buy from hold after its mammography survey confirmed that an upgrade cycle for digital mammography is emerging. The firm has a $20 price target for shares.
• eBay (EBAY) was upgraded to neutral from sell at MKM Partners.
• Athenahealth (ATHN) was upgraded to buy from hold at Auriga.
• Las Vegas Sands (LVS) was upgraded to overweight from equal weight at Morgan Stanley.

Protests and riots in Greece continued as the country's financial situation remained on the edge of the abyss. It seems that even a $144 billion aid package isn't going to be enough to calm the skeptics.

Here were today's closing bell levels:

Dow 10,866.83 -59.94 (-0.55%)
S&P 500 1,165.87 -7.73 (-0.66%)
Nasdaq 2,402.29 -21.96 (-0.91%)

Top Analyst Calls

Just last week, Hormel Foods Corporation (NYSE: HRL) surprised investors with stronger-than-expected first-quarter earnings. Sales during the period were boosted by healthy demand for the company's recession-friendly canned ham-like product, Spam. Today, it seems that Standard & Poor's is revealing its own soft spot for potted meat, announcing that HRL will join its storied S&P 500 Index as of the close of trading on March 3.

Hormel will replace American Capital Ltd. (NASDAQ: ACAS) in the closely watched broad-market index. The latter stock has given up nearly 96% of its value during the past year, and it's extending those losses today with a plunge of more than 16%.

Analyst upgrades:

• Jefferies upgraded MSC Industrial (NYSE:MSM) to Buy from Hold after meeting with management as they believe shares are attractive at current levels. The firm raised their target price to $44 from $32.
  
• UBS upgraded DuPont Fabros (NYSE:DFT) to Buy from Neutral and raised their target to $7 from $2. The firm believes DuPont Fabros will receive a waiver on its CH1 Construction loan for at least a year.
  
• Royal Bank of Scotland upgraded Credit Suisse (NYSE:CS) to Buy from Hold to reflect the company's derisking of its trading book.
• Smith & Nephew (NYSE:SNN) was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman and added to the Conviction Buy List; Cigna (NYSE:CI) was also added to the Conviction Buy List.
  
• Affymetrix (NASDAQ:AFFX) was raised to Equal Weight from Underweight at Morgan Stanley.
  
• Airtran Holdings (NYSE:AAI) was upgraded to Buy from Hold at Jesup & Lamont.

Analyst upgrades:

• Keefe Bruyette upgraded IberiaBank (NASDAQ: IBKC) to Market Perform from Underperform following the company's capital raise, which the firm believes strengthens IberiaBank's balance sheet. Baird upgraded IberiaBank to Outperform from Neutral based on valuation following weakness related to the $100M capital raise.
  
• Pali upgraded shares of Urban Outfitters (NASDAQ: URBN) to Neutral from Sell on valuation as they believe the company's comp slowdown is largely priced in at current levels.
  
• Morgan Keegan upgraded Casey's General Store (NASDAQ: CASY) to Outperform from Market Perform based on valuation, healthy SSS, and easing comps.
• Cabot OIl & Gas (NYSE: COG) and Royal Dutch Shell (NYSE: RDS.A) were added to Goldman's Conviction Buy List.
  
• American Capital (NASDAQ: ACAS) was raised to Market Perform from Underperform at Friedman Billings.
  
• CIBC lifted Manulife (NYSE: MFC) to Sector Outperformer from Sector Performer.

Analyst downgrades:

• Goldman downgraded Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT) to Sell from Neutral based on expectations for reduced capex spending by mining and oil & gas companies and the impact from the credit crunch.
  
• Deutsche Bank downgraded auto companies and suppliers as they believe the failed government bailout increases risks. Ford (NYSE: F), American Axle (NYSE: AXL), Magna International (NYSE: MGA) and Lear (NYSE: LEA) were downgraded to Sell from Hold.
  
• SAP (NYSE: SAP) was cut to Hold from Buy at Jefferies to reflect the "deteriorating" corporate IT spend environment.
• Waters (NYSE: WAT) was downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JP Morgan.
  
• Agilent (NYSE: A) was lowered to Equal Weight from Overweight at Barclays; the firm also downgraded Varian (NASDAQ: VARI) to Underweight from Equal Weight.

Analyst initiations:

• Jefferies believes Core Laboratories (NYSE: CLB) is well positioned to benefit from the increasing need for reservoir optimization services. Shares were initiated with a Buy rating and $70 target.
  
• Deutsche Bank initiated Capital One (NYSE: COF) with a Sell rating and $24 target, citing the difficult economic environment and the potential for higher credit losses.
  
• Soleil started Hexcel (NYSE: HXL) with a Buy rating and $10 target and expects the company's military business to remain strong through 2010.
• On Semiconductor (NASDAQ: ONNN) was assumed with a Neutral rating and $3.80 target at UBS.
  
• Cbeyond (NASDAQ: CBEY) was initiated at Oppenheimer with a Perform rating.
• Brocade (NASDAQ: BRCD) was started with a Neutral rating at Piper Jaffray.

Today started out looking like a great Monday after the Chinese announced a $586 billion stimulus package. Unfortunately, some of this was already in the works and many doubt its projected 8% to 9% growth for 2009 can stave off a recessionary environment ahead. Bonds closed early ahead of Veteran's Day, and are not trading Tuesday.

Here are the unofficial closing bell levels:
52-week lows
Top Upgrades & Downgrades
Solar Downgrades

American Capital, Ltd. (NASDAQ: ACAS) got killed after three major announcements: -$2.63 EPS, a $158 million acquisition, suspension of its dividend. Shares were down over 43% at $7.75 to a new multi-year low right before the close.

American International Group (NYSE: AIG) got a larger lifeline as the old $85 billion package grew to $120+ billion and then to $150+ billion, with some $40 billion coming from the TARP funds at better terms. Shares came off with the market at the end of the day, but were still up 9% at $2.30 right before the close.

MOST NOTEWORTHY: American Capital, Realty Income and KKR Financial were today's noteworthy downgrades:

• Jefferies downgraded American Capital (NASDAQ: ACAS) to Underperform from Hold as they see a disproportionate risk profile in the company's current portfolio when compared to most peers.
  
• Banc of America cut Realty Income (NYSE: O) to Sell from Neutral as they believe the current valuation is not sustainable.
  
• Bear lowered KKR Financial (NYSE: KFN) to Peer Perform from Outperform following the company's announcement that it intends to sell 20M shares in a public offering.

OTHER DOWNGRADES:

• Goldman cut PepsiCo (NYSE: PEP) to Neutral from Buy.
  
• RBC Capital downgraded Avocent (NASDAQ: AVCT) to Sector Perform from Outperform.
  
• JP Morgan removed NICE Systems (NASDAQ: NICE) from its Focus List.

For the most part, I usually argue here against buying shares of investment companies, but there are exceptions, and American Capital Strategies is one.

American Capital Strategies (NASDAQ: ACAS) invests in middle-market companies through 12 offices in the United States and Europe. Typically, it invests up to $800 million to fund management and employee buyouts, private equity firm buyouts, acquisitions, and restructurings.

Analysts like ACAS's projected asset growth rate for 2008, including alternative assets managed through external funds.

Further, portfolio income should increase via the improved pricing of recent investments; fee income should also perform well, due to fund management business expansion. Analysts also like ACAS's very good track record of returning capital to shareholders. The Reuters F2008/F2009 EPS consensus estimates for ACAS are $3.31/$3.46.

The risks? Analysts are keeping an eye on possible, further write-downs associated with externally managed funds.

The First Call mean rating for ACAS is: Hold [19 firms]. Mean 2008 target: $37 [high: $50, low: $34].

Stock Analysis: American Capital Strategies is a moderate-risk stock not suitable for low-risk investors. Investors with an investment horizon longer than two years should be rewarded from ACAS's shares. Sell/Stop Loss if you were to purchase shares in this company: $22.

Disclosure: Lazzaro has no positions in stocks. In addition to private real estate holdings, he owns corporate and municipal bonds, and cash certificates of deposit.

MAJOR PAPERS:

• The Wall Street Journal reported that the focus of reports of four deaths and 350 allergic reactions to Baxter International Inc's (NYSE: BAX) generic version of the blood thinner drug Heparin, and the ingredients supplied by a Chinese manufacturer, also includes Wisconsin-based Scientific Protein Laboratories, a co-owner of the Chinese manufacturing plant, and majority owned by American Capital Strategies Ltd (NASDAQ: ACAS), a Maryland buyout firm.
• Citigroup Incorporated (NYSE: C) has suspended investors at its CSO Partners hedge fund from withdrawing their money after they attempted to pull more than 30% of the fund's nearly $500M in assets, the Wall Street Journal reported.
• AT&T Inc (NYSE: T) is seeking more revenue from India as it tries to expand its consumer mobile phone operations outside the U.S, the Financial Times reported.

OTHER PAPERS:

• According to the New York Times, the FDA broke its own rules by approving for sale Baxter International's Heparin without first inspecting a Chinese plant where the drug's key ingredient is made.

MetLife (NYSE: MET) volatility elevated prior to guiding 2008 estimates lower.

MET expects 2008 earnings of $5.90-6.20 vs. consensus estimates of $6.26. MET says it has no exposure to asset backed commercial paper and "virtually" no exposure to sub-prime CDOs. MET overall option implied volatility of 35 is above its 26-week average of 29 according to Track Data, suggesting larger risks.

American Capital (NASDAQ: ACAS), alternative asset management company with $19 billion in capital resources under management, closed at $37.61 Friday.

ACAS overall option implied volatility of 41 is above its 26-week avearge of 35 according to Track Data, suggesting larger risk.

Daily Options Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

MOST NOTEWORTHY: American Capital (ACAS), Doral Financial (DRL), E-Trade Financial (ETFC) and Family Dollar (FDO) were today's noteworthy downgrade:

• Jefferies downgraded shares of American Capital (NASDAQ: ACAS) to Hold from Buy citing the slowing M&A market and risk characteristics of the company.

• Soleil downgraded Doral Financial (NYSE: DRL) to Sell from Hold, on the belief that the recent reverse stock split will increase short-selling activity and discourage speculative buying.

• E-Trade Financial (NASDAQ: ETFC) was cut to Neutral from Buy at UBS, citing deteriorating trends in the credit/mortgage markets, lack of near-term catalysts; the firm does not see an M&A deal occurring near-term.

• Goldman downgraded Family Dollar (NYSE: FDO) to Neutral from Buy, citing weakness in the low-end consumer and increased pressure from Wal-Mart (WMT)...

OTHER DOWNGRADES:

• Wachovia downgraded Tween Brands (NYSE: TWB) to Market Perform from Outperform.

• Estee Lauder (NYSE: EL) was downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Credit Suisse.

• Deutsche Bank cut Pearson (NYSE: PSO) to Hold from Buy.

• Matrix downgraded Talisman Energy (NYSE: TLM) to Hold from Buy.

Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required

Wall Street's equity market offers a modest plate this week, with three IPOs and four Secondaries on the docket.

Those deals tentatively scheduled to price include:

IPOs:

Tuesday

• Aldabra 2 Acquisition (ALL.U), a 30M-share IPO for this business finance company. Lazard is the lead manager. Filing price: $10.00
• Sterlite Industries (SLT), a 125M-share IPO for this India-based metals company. Merrill Lynch, Morgan Stanley and Citigroup are the lead managers. Filing price: $13.85.

Thursday

• Care Investment Trust (CRE), an 18.75M-share IPO for this business finance company. Credit Suisse and Merrill Lynch are the lead managers. Filing range: $15.00-$17.00.