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Dell's notebook strategy paying off after 45% annual growth

Dell, Inc. (NASDAQ: DELL) has done an admirable job of taking back control of its sales in recent quarters. After getting stomped by Hewlett-Packard Corp. (NYSE: HPQ) in the last 18 months, the Round Rock, Texas company has installed itself in over 10,000 retail locations across the U.S. and in other countries and has started growing its marketshare back. Gone are the days of the direct-only business; in are the days of a multi-channel selling model. Nowhere is this more evident than in Dell's laptop PC sales.

The company has taken back the number two spot in global laptop PC sales from Taiwan's Acer by growing its marketshare for such products to 15.1% of all global laptop PC sales as of its last quarter. In addition, that figures includes a whopping 45% growth in its year-over-year laptop PC shipments. It's amazing what a few quarters and retail availability can do to one's laptop PC sales, yes?

Dell is making steady process to see if it can inch back into leading quarterly PC sales on a global basis with HP, but it won't be easy. The Palo-Alto competitor just announced more than 50 new products this week (its biggest launch ever within that segment), and many of the newly-announced products are new consumer laptop PC designs. HP, the current king of the laptop PC hill with over 35% of the market, won't give up that spot -- or even a single marketshare point -- easily. But then again, Dell's efforts so far have shown great results. the race to the top of the laptop sales world is on.

Dell (DELL) may take sovereign fund investment

Usually, when sovereign funds put money into a company it is simply a financial investment. Dell (NASDAQ: DELL) may have unlocked something more. According to The Wall Street Journal: "Dell said it is in talks with a government-owned entity in Dubai about establishing a joint venture to further increase the personal-computer maker's sales in the Middle East." In other words, the computer company will get value well beyond cash.

For Dell, it is a brilliant move that shows government funds can do more than just write checks. The PC market in the Middle East is large and growing very rapidly.

The US company may have found a template for improving its market share around the world through forming joint ventures with local pools of capital. Dell's growth in many markets has been hurt by the improvement of share by Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ), and the rise of big computer companies Lenovo and Acer out of China. All of these companies need to improve their business in growing markets, like the Middle East and Asia, if they want their earnings to move up.

If the Dell venture in Dubai works, it would be wise to look to sovereign funds in Russia, China, and Singapore for similar deals. Dell's market share in many of these regions is in trouble. Who better than the locals to help them?

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 24wallst.com.

Lenovo: The advantages of being in Asia

Big China PC company Lenovo did something that Dell (NASDAQ: DELL) and Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ) won't. According to Reuters, it "beat expectations by nearly tripling quarterly earnings, riding strong demand for PCs in Asia."

Lenovo would like to get into the business of selling more PCs in the US, but it may be lucky that it does not have too much exposure here. The company gets about 40% of its revenue from China.

The news is a reminder that US PC companies may have a hard time this year. While they sell PCs overseas, they do not have a dominant position in the world's most populated country. In the US and Europe they are up against a resurgent Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) and products from Taiwan PC company Acer.

Lenovo may do well this year. US PC companies are another matter.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

Lenovo, with little exposure in US, set to out-perform HP (HPQ) and Dell (DELL)

It used to be that all tech companies wanted big footprints in the US market. Asia-based PC firms, lead by Lenovo and Acer, have been trying to get into America for years. Their efforts have been hurt by big domestic operators, especially Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ), Dell (NASDAQ: DELL), and, more recently, Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL).

Perhaps it is lucky for Lenovo that its efforts here have not worked out so well. It is set to announce profits which will be double what it did last year in the same quarter. The company should have a better year than its US rivals because of its strength in China and the rest of Asia.

"The biggest concern is the slowdown in the PC market this year, but Lenovo is best-positioned within the sector since it has the least exposure to the US market," said CLSA analyst Jenny Lai, quoted by Reuters.

The news also underscores that fact that US PC companies are still behind where they would like to be in Asia. This is especially true of Dell, which is only now making deals with retailers in the region to sell its PC.

For once, having trouble getting into the US market may be a blessing.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

Lenovo, Acer, and Asustek PC makers gunning for U.S. sales

Not only is Lenovo introducing newer laptop PCs (the IdeaPad) to compete with stylized laptop PCs from Dell, Hewlett Packard, and Apple, the company is making its newer consumer laptop PC designs as slick as those from the competition and it edging in on Apple for some of the coolest laptop designs in all of the laptop PC industry.

Oddly, China's Lenovo and Taiwan's Asustek and Acer are looking for growth in the laggard market of the PC industry -- the U.S. PC sales are increasing more than two times the growth rate in the U.S. when it comes to many Asian countries, and one would think that following the growth would be a more important priority for manufacturers in a commodity industry. Not so.

U.S. sales may have some margin to give back to manufacturers (as in, profit margin) by grabbing hold of the U.S. consumer with sizzling and stylistic designs and winning them over with an experience instead of a boring black box or laptop with the normal disposition of a toaster oven.

Add to that the fact laptop sales are growing in a large way as consumers dump those desktop PCs for those portable, wireless PCs, and it's no surprise Chinese and Taiwanese manufacturers want most of those newer laptops sold in the U.S. to be their brands and not Apple, Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL), Dell Inc. (NASDAQ: DELL) or Hewlett-Packard Company (NYSE: HPQ).

Dell and Tesco announce European retail agreement

Dell Inc. (NASDAQ: DELL) has been on a tear in the last six months when it comes to partnering with global retailers for its consumer PC products, and it has just announced yet another partnership. This time, European retail giant Tesco will make Dell's laptop and desktop PC products available in its stores this month. Currently, Tesco has retail operations in Asia and Europe.

Is Dell desperate? It's joined with so many larger retailers since this past autumn that it's hard not to think that the world's second-largest PC maker is trying desperately to make up for lost time by entering any and all retailers it can. In the U.S., that list includes Wal-Mart (NSYE: WMT), Best Buy (NYSE: BBY) and Staples (NASDAQ: SPLS). Those are among the three largest companies in their respective industries (discount retail, consumer electronics, and office/home business supplies).

Dell's Inspiron and XPS products will be the consumer product lines available in Tesco stores, mainly in the UK. However, Tesco outlets in Ireland, Poland, Czech Republic, and Slovakia will also carry Dell's two consumer PC lines. With Dell having retail partners in Europe, Asia (China's Gome) and the U.S., the company's retail sales efforts will be heavily scrutinized in 2008 as it competes on the shelf against retail heavyweights like Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ) and Taiwan's Acer, which also includes the Gateway brand.

Apple jumps above $200

The media is making much of Apple, Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL)'s move above $200 and it is a nice milestone. What is much more impressive is that about 20 months ago, the shares were only a bit above $50.

The question for Apple investors now is not how far the stock has come, but whether it can continue the trip. The company is now burdened by expectations which did not exist two or three years ago.

The assumptions on which a continued rise in the stock are based see the iPhone becoming a significant player in the smartphone market, the iPod continuing to sell tens of million of units a year, and the Mac getting well beyond 5% of the global PC market.

The Mac goal may be more difficult than the others. With over a billion handsets sold a year worldwide, the thought that the iPhone could capture 20 million units a year is not extraordinary. And, with a dominant position in the multimedia player market, the iPod is likely to have long-term growth so long as consumers want music and video to go.

But, the computer market is a much tougher nut. Hewlett-Packard Company (NYSE: HPQ), Dell Inc. (NASDAQ: DELL), and Asia manufacturers Lenovo and Acer, are not going to give up the share that they have now, at least not without cutting costs and improving features. Apple may not be able to hold the high-priced end of the market forever.

If Apple stumbles, it is likely to trip over expectations for the Mac.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

Gateway CEO Ed Coleman to leave Acer

The PC industry has been in a whirlwind this year. Dell (NASDAQ: DELL) emerged from a long accounting scandal to find it not making a huge amount of progress on PC industry leader Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ), and Acer gobbled up Gateway to make it the world's third-largest PC company behind leader HP and follower Dell (and slightly ahead of Chinese company Lenovo).

Now that Taiwan-based Acer has completed its acquisition of the Gateway brand for a little over $700 million (a bargain, all things considered), Gateway's CEO, Ed Coleman, has announced he will be leaving the company. After a year of disastrous results, most industry watchers saw this one coming, I believe. Coleman says he'll leave at the end of January, to be replaced by Acer's president for Pan American sales, Rudi Schmidleithner, who will be in charge of the official integration of both companies.

Can Acer take the Gateway brand and return it to prominence in the PC market by the sheer force of market share alone? After all, HP is definitely not sitting still and Dell's recent moves into more consumer-friendly PC products and its huge push into retail (Wal-Mart, Staples and Best Buy) will give the Gateway brand its harshest pressure in a long time. Acer can't afford to mess this one up, as the timing is not on its side at all. But, if it can try to be a strong third in the consumer market (as Acer has little business-market finesse), the company has a chance to actually, you know, make a consistent profit and grow sales. The largest challenge it has is being eaten by the two big dogs in the park.

Dell fumbles market share in third quarter

When Dell (NASDAQ: DELL) reported Q3 numbers last week, the market was underwhelmed by the computer maker's results. Dell, in the midst of staging a comeback under founder and CEO Michael Dell, missed earnings by a penny. Although this was the first solid quarter of honest-to-goodness results after a string of quarterly "preliminary" results due to an accounting scandal, the market didn't let up. Missing estimates by even a penny can be disastrous in the short term.

Well, larger competitor Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ) continues to add to that misery, as research firm iSuppli recently stated that the Palo Alto, Calif., company increased its market share over rival Dell in the third quarter of the calendar year. Adding insult to injury, Taiwanese computer maker Acer stole the number two spot in laptop sales away from Dell in the Q3 period as well, after completing its acquisition of the Gateway brand in the same quarter.

According to iSuppli, Hewlett-Packard took home 19.2% of all computer shipments in the third quarter, widening its lead against Dell's 14.6% share. In 2006's Q3 period, the difference was 16.5% for HP compared to 16.3% for Dell. My, what one year can do. Dell, ever one to control internal costs, let that one area get out of hand in its Q3 period and that dented its profit even as revenues grew. With laptop PCs continuing to grow way faster in unit shipments than desktop PCs, and with a resurgent Acer not giving an inch, it's going to be one large, uphill battle for Dell from here on.

Acer chief: No layoffs from Gateway acquisition

Acer won't be axing any jobs from the ongoing acquisition of computer brand Gateway, according to company Chairman and Chief Executive Officer J.T. Wang. In fact, he's had to fend off many inquiries on whether his strategy to get ahead of Chinese personal computer manufacturer Lenovo (OTC: LNVGY) with the Gateway acquisition and the purchase of the European PC brand Packard Bell is wise in a market where margins are so thin and changes are so rapid.

Can Acer transform three companies into one, bring larger economies of scale into the picture, create a much better name for itself in the U.S. market, fend off fierce margin pressures and competitive threats and actually grow itself moving forward? That is a large order for any company, and similar to when Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ) bought Compaq back in 2001, there will be pundits who climb all over this and say that the Gateway (and Packard Bell) purchase was a mistake.

But then last week, Acer announced a quarter that saw 5.44 million computers shipped in its Q3 period -- a growth rate of 59% from the year-ago quarter. Well, duh. Why wouldn't sales spike in a year where a major acquisition took place? Acer's Q3 profit also went up, landing at $90 million (up 58% from 2006's Q3 period).

After market jitters due to acquisition worries in August, Acer's shares hit a 52-week high yesterday on the Taiwan market. This is still too short of a time to judge the Gateway purchase strategy, but it's a good start for Acer, which most likely stands to make more than the $710 million price tag for Gateway in the next three years or so. That is, unless PC sales slump, which they have not been doing in recent years as laptop sales have caught on fire.

Global PC sales extra bad news for Dell

As the seasons roll around so do the quarterly PC sales numbers from research firm Gartner. It will be a chilly fall for Dell (NASDAQ: DELL) In the third quarter, the Texas-based PC company shipped 9.8 million PCs. That was an increase of less than 4% over the same period last year, and gave the company 14% of the global market, according to The Wall Street Journal.

By way of contrast, Hewlett-Packard (NYSE:HPQ) shipped 12.8 million PCs world-wide, enough for 19% of the market and a 33% increase from the year earlier period.

Ouch.

It would appear that HP is going to report especially strong PC sales when it releases its third quarter earnings. Its shares are already at almost $53, near their 52-week high.

But the numbers raise serious questions about Michael Dell's chances of turning around the company that he founded. He has put his PC into retail outlets, which should help sales over time. But he is still competing with smaller companies like Acer and Lenovo, who are anxious to increase sales in Europe and the US.

Dell's shares are up almost 15% over the last six months. But if the Q3 sales numbers are reflected in its earnings, the improvement could be short lived.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 24/7 Wall St.

Dell (DELL) lower as Acer-Gateway (GTW) deal is finalized

DELL logoDell Inc. (NASDAQ: DELL) stock is trading lower today as Taiwanese computer maker Acer has completed its tender offer for struggling U.S. PC vendor Gateway (NYSE: GTW). The combined company will be the world's third-largest PC vendor, behind Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ) and Dell, possibly putting some pressure on the top two. If you think this stock won't be rising too far in the coming months, then it could be a good time to look at a bearish hedged play on DELL.

After hitting a one-year high of $29.61 in July, the stock has been shaky over the past three months. This morning, DELL opened at $28.05. So far today the stock has hit a low of $27.85 and a high of $28.22. As of 11:10, DELL is trading at $27.87, down 31 cents (-1.1%). The chart for DELL looks neutral and improving, while S&P gives the stock a neutral 3 STARS (out of 5) hold rating.

For a bearish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a January bear-call credit spread above the $32.50 range. A bear-call credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of call options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make an 8.7% return in 3 months as long as DELL is below $32.50 at January expiration. Dell would have to rise by more than 33% before we would start to lose money.

DELL has not been above $30 since early 2006 and has shown some resistance around $28.50 recently. This trade could be risky if the company's earnings (due out on 11/29) are a positive surprise, but even if that happens, this position could be protected by the resistance the stock formed when it topped around $29 in July.

Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer.

DISCLOSURE: Mr. Archer owns and/or controls diversified portfolios of long and short stock and option positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in DELL, GTW, or HPQ.

Dell's (DELL) turnaround: More retail laptops

I've been keeping a keen eye on Dell, Inc. (NASDAQ: DELL) for quite a while, and the recent admission from the company about its internal financial accounting problems was long, long overdue. All things considered, the $150 million revenue restatement that spanned almost five years was a pittance compared to much larger accounting scandals the world has seen from other public companies. But that news overshadowed Dell's larger problem that is still in flux -- how to re-ignite growth.

It's true that the company surprised the market with a quarterly profit that was higher than expected and this was a good thing for the company. Did Dell all of a sudden have a great sales quarter? Not really, as much of that profit came from cost cutting under returning CEO Michael Dell along with server sales in the corporate sector -- a mainstay for Dell. But competitor Hewlett-Packard Co. (NYSE: HPQ) is still killing it in many categories where both companies operate.

For years, I've been of the opinion that Dell should re-enter the retail store consumer space with slick and elegant notebook PCs way back. It's corporate sales won't keep HP-like growth going, but if Dell can get its butt in gear and get its new and colorful laptop PCs on retail shelves, it may stand a chance. Dell's "direct only" model is still good but it's not the only leg the company needs to grow, and it knows this.

The retail experiment with selling excess and older Dimension desktop systems to Wal-Mart to gain a retail presence is a good start, but there is much more. Yes, Dell is making progress, but it could be making so much more with a full lineup of cutting-edge and price-sensitive laptop systems in many large U.S. retailers. Otherwise, HP and Taiwan's Acer will continue to eat its lunch in terms of consumer market share and shipment growth throughout 2008.

Acer CEO defends Gateway (GTW) acquisition

Gateway NYSE: GTW logoWhile the news that Acer would be acquiring Gateway (NYSE: GTW) did wonderful things for shares of Gateway, the same cannot be said for Acer. Acer, a Taiwanese company also traded on the London Stock Exchange, is down more than 10% since the announcement of the deal.

Critics believe that Acer is overpaying for Gateway, and also anticipate that the company will have trouble integrating the brand. But in an interview with the Financial Times, the usually soft-spoken Wang-Jen Tang defended the acquisition, saying that it was the company's best shot at achieving profitability in the North American markets -- Acer simply doesn't have strong brand recognition here, and Tang is hoping that the Gateway and eMachines brands will allow the company to lift its net margin in the US into the 2-3% range.

Only time will tell who is right, Tang of the market, which has spoken clearly about how it feels about the deal. But history has demonstrated amply that, the vast majority of the time, acquisitions fail to create value. If Tang is right, this will have to be the exception.

From an investor's perspective, Gateway shares are probably not worth buying, as some had suggested as recently as last week. Given that many observers feel Acer is overpaying, a competing bid seems unlikely to emerge. And what company would want to jump in when the company that just announced the deal has seen its stock hammered in the past week?

Dell (DELL) Q2 earnings preview

Dell, Inc. (NASDAQ: DELL) is set to release Q2 financial results tomorrow in what is probably one of the more highly anticipated earnings releases in quite a while. Just a few weeks ago, the company concluded its own internal financial investigation into possible financial shenanigans and the results included over $150 million in quarterly restatements stemming back to 2002. The official SEC investigation is not through yet.

Dell's reports tomorrow will shed some light on the fight the computer maker has had since January of this year to try and catch up to larger rival Hewlett-Packard Co. (NYSE: HPQ), which reported a touch under $25 billion in revenues for its latest quarter. Has Dell seen increased shipments of PCs with its newer and colorful laptop systems? Is the Wal-Mart retail relationship going well for the company? These questions and many more are on tap for tomorrow's call.

Analyst expectations are for Dell to report an earnings figure of 30 cents per share on revenue of $14.63 billion. The company should be able to make that number despite supply problems that have set back newer and colorful Inspiron notebook shipments (according to industry watchers). It will be interesting to see if any analyst questions come up about this week's acquisition of smaller PC rival Gateway, Inc. (NYSE: GTW) by Taiwan's Acer. Stay tuned tomorrow for liveblogging coverage of the Dell Q2 webcast and call.

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Last updated: September 07, 2008: 01:49 PM

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