Analyst upgrades:

• Citigroup upgraded Advanced Micro (NYSE: AMD) to Buy from Hold and raised its target to $5.50 from $4.25 citing valuation and expectations for the company's competitive position and gross margins to improve.
• Barclays upgraded American Express (NYSE: AXP) to Overweight from Equal Weight citing long-term earnings growth as the company benefits from declining charge-offs and credit costs. The firm has a $38 target on the stock.
• JPMorgan upgraded Arch Coal (NYSE: ACI) to Overweight from Neutral and raised its target to $22 from $19 citing the FTC approval for the acquisition of Jacobs Ranch mine and valuation.
• Bebe Stores (NASDAQ: BEBE) was upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Stephens.
• Cheesecake Factory (NASDAQ: CAKE) was upgraded to Neutral from Underweight at Piper Jaffray.
• Ashland (NYSE: ASH) was upgraded to Buy from Hold at KeyBanc.

Analyst upgrades:

• FBR Capital upgraded CapitalSource (NYSE: CSE) to Outperform from Market Perform on valuation as it sees an attractive risk/reward at current levels. The firm raised its target on shares to $5 from $3.
• Kaufman Bros. upgraded The Knot (NASDAQ: KNOT) to Buy from Hold following the company's Q2 results to reflect stable national advertising and a better bottom-line outlook. The firm raised its target on shares to $11 from $8.50.
• Baird upgraded Obagi Medical (NASDAQ: OMPI) to Outperform from Neutral and raised its target to $10 from $7 following the strong Q2 report. The firm believes business bottomed in Q1 and the outlook is improving.
• IPC The Hospitalist Co. (NASDAQ: IPCM) was upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Stephens.
• King Pharma (NYSE: KG) was upgraded at BofA/Merrill to Buy from Hold.
• Infinera (NASDAQ: INFN) was upgraded to Hold from Underperform at Jefferies.

Analyst upgrades:

• Jefferies upgraded SAP (NYSE: SAP) to Buy from Hold on expectations license declines will trough in Q2 and margins will expand going forward due to cost control and price increases. The firm has a $46 price target on shares.
• BofA/Merrill upgraded STMicroelectronics (NYSE: STM) to Buy from Underperform on expectations the company will benefit from improving industry fundamentals in 2010.
• Citigroup upgraded Freeport McMoRan (NYSE: FCX) to Buy from Hold to reflect the firm's positive copper outlook, as well as valuation following the recent pullback in shares. The firm has a $58 price target on the stock.
• Phototronics (NASDAQ: PLAB) was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS.
• Anglo American (NASDAQ: AAUK) was raised to Hold from Sell at RBS.
• Peabody Energy (NASDAQ: BTU) was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman.

Peabody Energy (NYSE: BTU) a coal company, closed at $35.68. BTU is expected to report Q2 EPS in late July. BTU June option implied volatility is at 62, July is at 61; below its 26-week average of 74, according to Track Data, suggesting decreasing price movement.

Massey Energy (NYSE: MEE) closed at $24.70. MEE June option implied volatility is at 84; July is at 78; below its 26-week average of 91; according to Track Data, suggesting decreasing price fluctuations.

Arch Coal (NYSE: ACI) closed at $18.82. ACI June and July option implied volatility of 68 is below its 26-week average of 83 according to Track Data, suggesting decreasing price movement.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA) started off the new earnings season with disappointing results that helped to stifle the recent rally. Was that enough of a sign of what's to come? No, probably not. But the earnings reports start to fly in earnest this week, which should provide a more detailed picture of the state of things.

Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters anticipate that some of the biggest names will prove to be holding their own. Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) is expected to post a profit of $4.91 per share, marginally higher than a year ago, and Johnson & Johnson's (NYSE: JNJ) expected $1.22 per share profit is slightly lower year over year. Even Mattel Inc.'s (NYSE: MAT) estimated loss of $0.13 per share is the same as in the year-ago period.

Analyst upgrades:

• Baird upgraded MSM Industrial (NYSE: MSM) to Outperform from Neutral based on valuation and a positive view for Industrial Distributors.
  
• William Blair upgraded Allscripts (NASDAQ: MDRX) to Outperform from Market Perform on valuation following the recent pullback and believes Allscripts is well positioned to benefit from public policy that drives adoption of electronic medical records.
  
• Citigroup upgraded Consolidated Edison (NYSE: ED) to Buy from Hold as they believe the ALJ recommendation in the company's pending electric rate case indicates potential for an improving outlook.
• Raytheon (NYSE: RTN) was raised to Buy from Neutral at Goldman.
  
• Smith & Nephew (NYSE: SNN) was upgraded at JP Morgan to Neutral from Underweight.
  
• Becton Dickinson (NYSE: BDX) was upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley.

Analyst downgrades:

• Oppenheimer downgraded Bio-Reference Labs (NASDAQ: BRLI) to Perform from Outperform as they believe weaker volumes could pressure top-line growth in the near-term. The firm lowered their target to $25 from $30.
  
• Morgan Stanley downgraded shares of Alcatel-Lucent (NYSE: ALU) to Equal Weight from Overweight to reflect market deterioration as they find the risk/reward as balanced at current levels.
  
• JP Morgan cut Nestle (OTC: NSRGY) to Underweight from Neutral on concerns the company's 2009 revenue will miss consensus estimates due to market share losses.
• Rio Tinto (NYSE: RTP) and Anglo American (NASDAQ: AAUK) were lowered to Hold from Buy at Deutsche Bank.

Arch Coal (NYSE: ACI) closed at $18.50 Friday. ACI January and February option implied volatility of 87 is near its 26-week average according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional price movement.

Massey Energy (NYSE: MEE), a coal miner, closed at $16.19 Friday. MEE is scheduled to report Q4 EPS in the February option cycle. MEE February option implied volatility of 108 is near its 26-week average according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional price fluctuations.

Consol Energy (NYSE: CNX) closed at $32.15 Friday. CNX has two principle business units: coal and gas. CNX February option implied volatility of 90 is near its 26-week average according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional price movement.

Alpha Natural (NYSE: ANR), an Appalachian coal producer, closed at $18.38 Friday. ANR February option implied volatility of 107 is near its 26-week average according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional price movement.

Peabody Energy (NYSE: BTU), a coal company, closed at $25.06 Friday. BTU is expected to report Q4 EPS in late January. January and February option implied volatility of 97 is above its 26-week average of 89, according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

Whether it's a recession or an economic boom, one thing doesn't change, the need for energy. And until technology leaps ahead, coal is the largest producer of fuel for the generation of electricity in the world. It's also the most abundant fossil fuel in the United States. Coal is obviously not recession immune as people tighten the reigns on their lives and cut back on electricity consumption, but the shear necessity of electricity makes the coal industry fairly resistant. An investment in an exchange traded fund (ETF) that is centered on the coal industry is a great way to hedge your bets by investing in a pool of successful companies in the coal field.

Market Vectors Coal ETF (NYSE: KOL) seeks to replicate the price and yield performance of the Stowe Coal index, which provides exposure to publicly traded companies worldwide that derive greater than 50% of their revenues from the coal industry. With KOL you'll own shares of some of the most noted coal companies in the world, including Arch Coal Inc. (NYSE: ACI), which specializes in steam and metallurgical coal; CONSOL Energy Inc. (NYSE: CNX), a large provider of fuel for electricity in the United States; Alpha Natural Resources Inc. (NYSE: ANR), another leader in steam and metallurgical coal; and Peabody Energy Corp. (NYSE: BTU), an exploration miner and coal producer worldwide, as well as several other highly rated coal companies across the globe.

Market Vector charges only a 0.65% fee, a fraction what a professional money manager would charge you to analyze research and pick coal mining stocks with this level of global reach. Recently KOL has gone through a typical correction for this commodity sector, but then suffered a greater hit as Asia saw a 20% decline in spot prices for thermal coal. The result? A better deal for those currently willing to dive into coal as an investment. KOL is up 14%, so maybe there's some light at the end of the mine.

While other earnings may have disappointed last week, the news was good for oil giant ConocoPhilips (NYSE: COP). In what some took as a good sign for big oil, the Houston-based company reported that third quarter net income surged 41% year over year to $3.39 per share, and that revenue also surged 52% to $70 billion. We'll see whether the good news extends to other petroleum giants scheduled to report quarterly results this week.

Analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial are looking for BP (NYSE: BP) profits to have grown 43.2% in the most recent quarter to $2.34 per share on revenue of $109.7 billion, and Chevron Corp. (NYSE: CVX) to post earnings up 39.4% to $3.25 per share on revenue of $86.8 billion. Marathon Oil Corp. (NYSE: MRO), ExxonMobil Corp. (NYSE: XOM), and Royal Dutch Shell (NYSE: RDS.A) likewise are expected to report higher net income of $2.33 per share (sales of $23.4 billion), $2.40 per share (sales of $131.4 billion), and $2.65 per share, respectively. Even Valero Energy Corp. (NYSE: VLO) is expected to post earnings slightly higher to $1.46 per share (sales of $36.4 billion), despite the effects of Hurricane Ike. Among these companies, only BP and Valero beat earnings expectations in the previous quarter. Not surprisingly, analysts on average recommend buying all except Valero, and shares of all of these companies have recently hit 52-week lows.

Analyst upgrades:

• William Blair raised Quest Diagnostics (NYSE: DGX) to Outperform from Market Perform. The firm believes that the long-term fundamentals of the clinical laboratories sectors are still strong.
  
• UBS upgraded Massey Energy (NYSE: MEE) to Buy from Neutral on valuation.
  
• ArthroCare (NASDAQ: ARTC) was upgraded to Buy from Hold by Lazard, since the firm expects a small restatement while they believe a large restatement is priced into the shares.
• Arch Coal (NYSE: ACI) was upgraded to Buy from Neutral by UBS.
• Merrill Lynch raised Southern Peru Copper (NYSE: PCU) to Neutral from Underperform.

Analyst downgrades:

• Piper downgraded Salesforce.com (NYSE: CRM) to Neutral from Buy to reflect the company's lower than expected deferred Q2 revenue.
• Goldman Sachs removed Amylin Pharmaceutical (NASDAQ: AMLN) from its Conviction Buy List.
  

Analyst initiations:

• Aetna (NYSE: AET) was initiated with a Buy by Banc of America, which believes the company will experience industry-leading member growth.
  
• Banc of America initiated Wellpoint (NYSE: WLP) with a Buy rating, as the firm expects the shares to rebound from near trough valuations.
  
• Wachovia (NYSE: WB) was reinitiated by Friedman Billings with an Underperform rating, as the firm expects the company to incur higher credit losses than the Street expects due to its outsized exposure to residential real estate.
  
• Six Flags (NYSE: SIX) was started with an Above Average rating by Caris.

If you were looking for another hard day of profit taking on a summer Friday, the markets escaped the hangman. A barely positive durable goods of big ticket items was enough to send the pessimists to the showers and gave the bulls a little more ammo. Throw in an oil ticker showing a drop of more than $2.00 to almost $123.00 per barrel and that's all that was needed. Look at bond yields and you'll see we gave back almost all of yesterday's move.

Here are today's unofficial closing bell levels:
DJIA 11368.33 (+19.05)
S&P500 1257.65 (+5.11)
NASDAQ 2310.53 (+30.42)
10YR T-NOTE 4.111% (+0.095%)
TOP ANALYST UPGRADES
TOP ANALYST DOWNGRADES
Select Short Sales Data

Arch Coal (NYSE: ACI) tripled earnings posted EPS of $0.78 vs. $0.64 estimates. The stock was up more than 3% in pre-open but was up almost 9% at $55.45 in the final minutes of the day.

Crocs Inc. (NASDAQ: CROX) led the garbage stocks after a very ugly earnings warning last night. It now sees sales for all of 2008 modestly lower than 2007 and is now only targeting a break-even result for 2008. Retailers were noted as keeping inventory re-orders at low levels, which is hard to blame them considering the ugly shoe fad has already started its workdown. Shares were down 44% at $4.99 after shares had already sold of more than 80% from 52-week highs.

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Tower sector stocks, Tesco Plc and Alcoa were today's noteworthy upgrades:

• RBC Capital upgraded American Tower (NYSE:AMT), Crown Castle( NYSE::CCI), SBA Comm (NASDAQ:SBAC) to Outperform from Sector Perform citing recent weakness in the tower sector group and a continued favorable outlook.
  
• Merrill upgraded shares of Tesco (Other OTC:TSCDY) to Buy from Neutral as they believe it is the only proven growth stock in the sector.
  
• Soleil upgraded shares of Alcoa (NYSE:AA) to Hold from Sell on valuation following the recent weakness.

OTHER UPGRADES:

• Arch Coal (NYSE:ACI) and Peabody Energy (NYSE:BTU) were upgraded to Buy from Hold at Citigroup.
  
• L-3 Comm (NYSE:LLL) was raised to Outperform from Neutral at Cowen.
  
• Jacobs Engineering (NYSE:JEC) was lifted to Buy from Hold at Morgan Joseph.

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Progressive, Netflix and Public Service Enterprise Group were today's noteworthy upgrades:

• Wachovia upgraded Progressive (NYSE: PGR) to Market Perform from Underperform based on modest signs of improvement in underwriting trends.
  
• Lehman upgraded Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX) to Overweight from Equal Weight based on strong core trends and a potential announcement of digital service partners into its May 28 investor day.
  
• Credit Suisse upgraded Public Service Enterprise Group (NYSE: PEG) to Outperform from Neutral based on earnings growth through utility investment, valuation, upside from U.S. CO2 policy.

OTHER UPGRADES:

• Precision Drilling (NYSE: PDS) was raised to Outperform from Sector Perform at RBC Capital.
  
• Hertz Global (NYSE: HTZ) was upgraded at Soleil to Buy from Hold.
  
• Calyon upgraded Foundation Coal (NYSE: FCL) and Arch Coal (ACI) to Add from Neutral.

"Arch Coal (NYSE: ACI) is fired up from its first quarter earnings; the results were well above analysts expectations," notes Joseph Hargett.

And with 13.5 million shares of the stock sold short, the analyst with Schaeffer's Research explains, "Shorts account for about 9.5% of the stock's float, which could result in a short squeeze." Here is his review.

"Net income nearly tripled to $81.1 million, or 56 cents per share. Revenue for the auarter rose to $699.4 million from $571.3 million. For the year, Arch Coal lifted its earnings estimate to a range of $2.40 to $2.80 per share, versus Wall Street's consensus view for $2.43 per share.

"Digging into the report, the company noted that profit margins were particularly wide in the Central Appalachia region, while higher prices for coal and cost controls also contributed to the results. Arch noted that the average sales price per ton rose 9.7% to $18.49 from $16.85, while the cash cost per ton rose less than 1% to $13.05 from $12.93.

Here are some highlights from this past week's earnings coverage from BloggingStocks:

• American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings Inc. (NYSE: AXL) reported a strike-related Q1 loss.
• Arch Coal Inc. (NYSE: ACI) Q1 profit tripled on increased demand and higher prices.
• Boeing Co. (NYSE: BA) posted better-than-expected earnings despite Dreamliner delays.
• Coach Inc. (NYSE: COH) better-than-expected quarter didn't impress Jim Cramer.
• ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) reported Q1 earnings and revenue above analysts' forecasts.
• Delta Air Lines Inc. (NYSE: DAL) reported a big loss on a one-time charge and fuel costs.
• Dow Chemical Co. (NYSE: DOW) posted a smaller-than-forecast profit drop and predicted a good Q2.
• EI DuPont de Nemours & Co. (NYSE: DD) Q1 earnings rose 26% but missed expectations.
• Ford Motor Co. (NYSE: F) surprised Wall Street by swinging to a profit in the first quarter.
• Goodyear Tire and Rubber Co. (NYSE: GT) easily surpassed analyst estimates for the first quarter.
• Halliburton Co. (NYSE: HAL) Q1 earnings and revenue rose due to international growth.
• Hershey Co. (NYSE: HSY) profit fell but was in line with analysts' expectations.