The Wall Street Journal [subscription required] suggests that with the collapse of financing for leveraged buyouts -- their share of total M&A rose from 14% in 2000 to 37% through July -- the M&A business is contracting. Deal volume in August fell by more than half from the previous month. Specifically, August deal volume globally was $222 billion -- the lowest monthly total since July 2005 -- a third of the $695 billion figure struck in April and less than half the $579 billion in July.
But hope springs eternal for the deal salesmen. With the drying up of credit for the LBO crowd, M&A professionals are hoping that so-called strategic deals -- merger pacts made between corporations -- will pick up the slack. Tuesday I happened to be watching CNBC when a couple of strategic acquisition cheerleaders tried to outdo each other talking about all the wonderful corporate mergers on the horizon.
The deal bust will have significant economic repercussions in New York. Lower M&A volume means lower bonuses for M&A bankers and those financiers that raise the capital to pay for LBO deals. Moreover, the collapse in the alphabet soup of securities backed by subprime mortgages, credit card receivables and others will lead to more layoffs. Finally, hedge funds which invested in this toxic waste will continue to fold -- diminishing the bonuses of those who run these funds.
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