Automatic Data Processing (NYSE: ADP) is a play that's for the daring only. ADP, the largest provider of payroll outsourcing services in the world, is likely to register flat to slightly declining revenue in FY 2009.

Further, price pressure stemming from new alternate payroll/tax filing options, and incremental additions to payrolls -- mass hirings will be the exception, not the rule -- will likely lead to less-robust growth than during the previous two economic expansions.

Analyst upgrades:

• Citigroup upgraded Amazon.com (NASDAQ: AMZN) to Buy from Hold on expectations the company's top-line growth rate could be more sustainable than expected and its operating margins could recover given due to less retail discounting. The firm raised its price target on shares to $97 from $65.
  
• UBS upgraded King Pharmaceuticals (NYSE: KG) to Buy from Sell based on expectations that Sandoz will settle patent litigation regarding Skelaxin after last weeks settlement of Clarinex with Schering-Plough (SGP).
  
• Jefferies upgraded Reliance Steel (NYSE: RS) to Buy from Hold as it believes steel prices and demand are close to near-term bottoms. The firm raised its target on the stock to $44 from $25.
• Palm (NASDAQ: PALM) was raised to Buy from Neutral at Banc of America/Merrill.
  
• Nestle (OTC: NSRGY) was lifted to Neutral from Underweight at JP Morgan.
• Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) was upgraded at Wachovia to Outperform from Market Perform.

Analyst upgrades:

• RBC Capital believes software stock fundamentals have bottomed and that the next several quarters should see reduced earnings risk, easier comps, stimulus spending benefits, and lower FX headwinds. The firm upgraded Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT), Taleo (NASDAQ: TLEO), Digital River (NASDAQ: DRIV) and Symantec (NASDAQ: SYMC) to Outperform from Sector Perform.
  
• Rodman & Renshaw upgraded Provectus (OTC: PVCT) to Outperform from Market Perform. The firm has increased conviction in the success of the company's ongoing trial of PV-10 in melanoma.
  
• Citigroup upgraded shares of American Express (NYSE: AXP) to Hold from Sell as it believes the risk/reward is balanced at current levels and that there are signs of potential credit market stabilization. The firm raised its price target on shares to $16 from $9.
• Brinker (NYSE: EAT) was upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Wachovia.
  
• PG&E (NYSE: PCG) was raised to Outperform from Neutral at Credit Suisse.
  
• Federal-Mogul (NASDAQ: FDML) was lifted to Conviction Buy from Buy at Goldman.

Companies slashed 742,000 workers in March in a report by ADP Employer Services. February's reading was revised to 706,000 from previously estimated 697,000 job cuts.. These are the worst numbers since ADP started keeping records in 2001.

This was the 15th straight month of job losses, putting total losses at more than five million. Some analysts see more job cuts going forward for several months. To underscore the severity of the present situation, the ADP report was forecast to show only 665,000 jobs lost.

Non-farm private employment decreased 522,000 in January -- roughly in-line with expectations -- ADP announced Wednesday in the ADP National Employment Report.

Meanwhile, the December change in employment was revised to a decrease of 659,000 jobs from the previously-announced decrease of 693,000 jobs, ADP said.

Manufacturing employment fell 243,000 in January -- its 28th consecutive monthly decline. The service sector of the economy lost 279,000 jobs during the month.

Traders today were again fighting mostly over whether the DJIA should trade above the 8,000 mark. But the good news was that the "Bad Bank" plan may be replaced with Uncle Sam acting as an "insurer of last resort," which would put a floor in values. Treasury Secretary Geithner also noted that the U.S. would be very aggressive in its stimulus and stabilization pact. This all sent shares higher late in the day despite the plan's massive cost. Housing data in pending home sales failed to nudge any opinion, as the gains were due to distressed selling.

Today's unofficial closing bell levels:
DJIA: 8,078.36 +141.53 +1.78%
NASDAQ: 1,516.30 +21.87 +1.46%
S&P 500: 838.51 +13.07 +1.58%
52-Week Highs... we actually have some highs!
Top Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades

When I think of Martin Luther King many notions come to mind, but today on a day our nation takes pause to recognize the man and his ideals I was thinking about the word dignity.

While King had many ideals and made tremendous sacrifices to achieve them there is one thing he never gave up for one moment and would let no man take away -- that was his dignity.

I chose the picture of him receiving the Nobel peace prize because he was not only deserving of the prize but because he was actually a very noble man and it is more than ironic (spelling aside) to give such a prize to one such as he.

As we salute the man and his ideals is there anything that we can learn from his example that might be carried over into the investment world?

When I consider such things I often think about a company's credit worthiness. As measured by Standard and Poors: Credit ratings measure how likely companies are to pay back debt, which lets investors know the likelihood of getting their money back. Therefore AAA ratings generally go to large companies with tremendous financial resources. This list is very short.

Today the list includes Automatic Data Processing (NYSE: ADP), Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.A), Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE: XOM), General Electric Company (NYSE: GE), Johnson and Johnson (NYSE: JNJ), Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT) Pfizer Inc. (NYSE: PFE) and among financial stocks Wells Fargo & Company (NYSE: WFC).

Non-farm private employment decreased a gargantuan 693,000 in December -- much worse than expected -- on a seasonally adjusted basis, ADP announced Tuesday in the ADP National Employment Report (pdf).

Meanwhile, the November estimated change in employment was revised to a decrease of 476,000 from the previously-announced decrease of 250,000 jobs, ADP said.

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News had expected the ADP report to show the loss of 495,000 private sector jobs in December.

Note: This month, ADP revised the report's methodology, hence economists say comparisons to November and prior month job reports are not recommended.

Manufacturing employment fell 120,000 in December -- its 27th consecutive monthly decline. Meanwhile, the service sector of the economy lost 473,000 jobs, the first back-to-back monthly job loss in the service sector since November 2002.

Nonfarm private employment decreased an enormous 250,000 in November (pdf) on a seasonally adjusted basis, ADP announced Wednesday.

Meanwhile, the October estimated change in employment was revised to a decrease of 179,000 jobs from the previously-announced decrease of 157,000 jobs.

While manufacturing employment fell 118,000 in November -- its 27th consecutive monthly decline -- the service sector of the economy lost 92,000 jobs -- its second consecutive monthly job loss, and the first back-to-back monthly job loss in that sector since November 2002.

Economist Richard Felson said the November ADP private sector report shows a U.S. economy with few strengths. "It is another distressing report. The fact that the service sector is now registering large job losses is bearish for the economy. Previously, the service sector had been the only sign of strength," Felson said. "Simply, the nation, and the other regions of the world need to create engines of growth to reverse this negative spiral of decreased demand, lower revenue, job losses, decreased demand."

Most of the decline in employment during November was accounted for by job losses at medium-sized companies, which registered a 130,000-job decline. Meanwhile, large businesses cut 41,000 jobs in November. Small businesses cut 79,000 jobs during the month.

Non-farm private employment decreased a whopping 157,000 in October on a seasonally-adjusted basis, ADP announced Wednesday in the ADP National Employment Report (pdf).

Meanwhile, the September estimated change in employment was revised to a decrease of 26,000 from the previously announced decrease of 8,000 jobs, ADP said.

Manufacturing employment fell 85,000 in October -- its 26th consecutive monthly decline. Meanwhile, the service sector of the economy lost 31,000 jobs, the first monthly job loss in the service sector since November 2002.

Economist Richard Felson said the October ADP private sector report offered little good news for the U.S economy.

"It is a large monthly job loss, and even more distressing was the job loss total in the service sector," Dawson said. "Up until now the service sector was creating jobs, helping to prop up the economy. The fact that services lost jobs in a month for the first time in six years is a bad sign for the economy because it removes one of the few remaining bright spots in the job market. Job market conditions have worsened and we're likely to continue to see 100,000-plus job loss months for awhile, I'm afraid."

Non-farm private employment decreased a modest 8,000 in September on a seasonally adjusted basis, ADP announced Wednesday in the ADP National Employment Report (pdf).

Meanwhile, the estimated change in employment for August was revised to a decrease of 37,000 from the previously-announced decreased of 33,000 jobs, ADP said.

The service sector of the economy added 64,000 jobs, while employment in the goods-producing sector declined 72,000, its 22nd consecutive monthly decline. Manufacturing employment fell 48,000 in September, its 25th consecutive monthly decline.

Don't read too much into ADP data

Economist Richard Felson said the September ADP private sector report was modest good news, in that it was benign. "We can't project or read too much into the ADP data because it is just a segment of the job market, but at least the job loss numbers were not large," Felson said.

Analyst upgrades:

• Baird upgraded Dicks Sporting Goods (NYSE: DKS) to Outperform from Neutral based on valuation.
  
• Home Depot (NYSE: HD) was raised to Market Perform from Underperform by Morgan Keegan.
  
• Southwest Airlines (NYSE: LUV) was upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform by Avondale.

Analyst downgrades:

• BMO Capital downgraded Hasbro (NYSE: HAS) to Underperform from Market Perform due to valuation and macro headwinds.
  
• UBS dropped Darden Restaurants (NYSE: DRI) to Neutral from Buy because of slowing casual dining trends.
• Goldman Sachs dropped Affiliated Computer (NYSE: ACS) to Neutral from Buy.
  
• Goldman also downgraded Automatic Data Processing (NYSE: ADP) to Neutral from Buy.

Analyst initiations:

• CIBC initiated Nortel Networks (NYSE: NT) with a Sector Performer rating based on what they see as the company's limited growth and margin prospects.
  
• Needham initiated Juniper (NASDAQ: JNPR) with a Hold rating, citing valuation.
  
• Blockbuster (NYSE: BBI) was initiated with a Hold by Needham, which would like to see if the company's turnaround is sustainable before becoming more constructive on the shares.

It's a job report that's not likely to encourage stock market bulls.

That's how one economist and market watcher characterized Wednesday's release of the July ADP National Employment report, which showed an increase of just 9,000 jobs. (Revised ADP payroll data for June indicated a loss of 77,000 jobs.)

Further, although the ADP report is a sample of private sector companies and not a comprehensive survey, economists scrutinize it to detect clues about the labor market. And right now, those clues suggest continued weak employment conditions amid the slowest economy in five years, says economist Glen Langan.

"Although we saw a slight lessening of job layoffs in the hard-hit construction sector, we're still seeing job losses in that category," Langan said. "The rest of the report can be characterized as tepid. Tepid may sound like an improvement or a positive, but it's not, because the U.S. economy has to create about 100,000-125,000 jobs each month just to keep pace with population growth, with new adults entering the workforce. We're no where near that pace in 2008, which is a big negative for the [U.S.] economy."

In fact, Langan said the U.S. economy has shed an average of 94,000 jobs per month for the first six months of 2008. Further, July's ADP report does not bode well for the July non-farm payroll data report, scheduled to be released by the U.S. Department of Labor Friday, August 1 at 8:30 a.m. EDT. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News expected that report to show a loss of 72,000 jobs in July.

"Any further market weakness creates creates another opportunity to acquire some outstanding stocks," suggests Kelley Wright, noted for his focus on blue chip, dividend-paying stocks.

In his Investment Quality Trends newsletter, he looks at the benefits of keeping a long-term focus, the value of dividend districutions to an investor's long-term returns, and his current "timely ten" picks for conservative investor.

"The cash dividend for the Dow is $322.40. One year ago the dividend was $284.06. Amidst all the turmoil in the markets and the economy something must be going right with the Dow 30 companies because the dividend is ever climbing.

"Dividends, as we all know, can only come from the reality of earnings; you can't pay what you don't have. The dividend yield on the Dow is currently 2.66%, which represents an 11% downside to a 3.0% yield and the historically repetitive area of Undervalue.

"Will the Average make it down to that level? No one knows but that isn't the point. At current levels the upside is FAR greater, particularly in many of the stocks in our Undervalued area.

"As far as safety goes, Automatic Data Processing (NYSE: ADP) is hard to beat," says Gregory Dorsey in Leeb's Income Performance Report. Here's the advisor's review.

"In our search for stocks that can not only grow in good times, but will also hold up well when the going gets rough, we find ADP. Its steady cash generation means the company has a number of options at its disposal when it comes to maximizing shareholder value.

"ADP offers services including payroll processing, human resource benefits administration products and other outsourcing services. The stock's P/E, using expected year-ahead earnings, doesn't seem so cheap at 18. But relative to the company's long-term growth rate, it's quite reasonable. In fact, the stock is trading at its lowest valuations in more than a decade.

"And ADP's balance sheet has never been stronger. Management's confidence in the company's future recently prompted them to up the stock's payout by 26%. We see good things ahead for ADP as well.

"ADP has demonstrated a record of maximizing shareholder value. For instance, the company has a history of using part of its cash flow generation to repurchase its own stock. In the first quarter the company repurchased approximately 5.8 million shares, and it's likely to continue to buy back shares in the future."

Each day, Steven Halpern's TheStockAdvisors.com offers the latest market commentary and favorite investment ideas from the nation's leading financial newsletter advisors.