Though the earnings season is winding down, and the coming week includes the Thanksgiving holiday in the U.S., plenty of reports are still due out. And analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters don't seem to be expecting too many turkeys among this week's bunch.
Leading U.S. meat processor Tyson Foods Inc. (TSN), which has just named a new chief executive officer and a new chief operating officer, is expected to report fiscal fourth-quarter earnings of $0.26 per share, up from $0.14 in the same period of last year. But revenue is expected to total $6.9 billion, or 4.3% less than a year ago. The full-year forecast is for a profit of $0.25 per share (-16.7) on $26.4 billion (-3.9%) in sales. This dividend payer has offered upside surprises in the past two quarters, topping estimates by 11 cents per share in the third quarter. The long-term EPS growth forecast is 8.5%, which is about the same as that of competitor Smithfield Foods Inc. (SFD). Tyson's earnings multiple is 13x. The First Call consensus recommendation has been to buy TSN for more than 90 days. The mean price target is $13.83. JPMorgan, though, downgraded Tyson due to rising commodities prices and other reasons, but BloggingStocks contributor Joseph Lazzaro likes it for its diversity and global reach. Shares have faced resistance around $13 since early September and closed the week at $13.07.
Back in August, I discussed my amazement at Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF). The stock just didn't seem to be acting in a manner which reflected the fundamentals of the business it represents. Well, my bout of amazement continues, because shares of the retailer are up 9% as of this writing on the latest earnings report. One that didn't impress me.
For the third quarter, Abercrombie made, on a reported basis, 44 cents per diluted share compared to 72 cents per diluted share in the year-ago period. After adjustments, earnings came in at 30 cents per share. Okay, that profit drop is bad enough, but wait till I get to the really bad stuff. Which would be revenues. Total sales declined 15%, but same-store sales were even worse: they plunged off the proverbial cliff, falling 22%.
There are only seven weeks left in the year, so it is time to start thinking about 2010. If you have been keeping up with my 2009 picks (see: Chasing Value: 2009 blazing picks -- Q3 review ) than you would be aware that the group is up 40% through the third quarter.
This year I bought all of my picks so that I would be riding in the same ship as anyone that might have considered my suggestions.
I will be breaking up my potential picks into three categories; contender, on the fence, and out of the running, until I finalize the list in the last week of the year.
The market continues to befuddle the bears as the third quarter earnings and stock prices continued to move in a positive direction.
During this period Washington has taken charge of the auto industry and helped prop it up with the "cash-for-clunkers" program. They continue to subsidize the real estate market with first-time home buyers incentives, and very low interest rates. The banks are being refueled by the Federal Reserve with interest rates as low as zero, while all the time currency stability has been sacrificed. This has driven gold prices to new highs.
This is the third review of my 2009 stock picks through September 30 (see: Chasing Value: 9 picks for 2009 -- APC, GE, ISRG, WFC and more). This years picks have annihilated index comparisons, so much so that I must attribute some of my good fortune to luck. However, I do believe the original reasoning was sound and the outlier nature of the gains certainly a result of an oversold market living in fear.
Oppenheimer upgraded Viacom (NYSE: VIA, VIA.B) to Outperform from Perform following the better-than-expected Q3 results to reflect an improving outlook for all the company's segments. The firm raised its target on shares to $36.
Deutsche Bank upgraded C.R. Bard (NYSE: BCR) to Buy from Hold on expectations the company's underlying growth trends will improve. The firm raised its target on shares to $88 from $78.
Wells Fargo upgraded Cognizant (NASDAQ: CTSH) to Outperform from Market Perform. The firm upgraded the stock after Cognizant reported better-than-expected Q3 results.
Plug Power (NASDAQ: PLUG) was upgraded to Sector Perform from Underperform at RBC Capital.
Digital River (NASDAQ: DRIV) was upgraded to Buy from Hold at Collins Stewart and to Overweight from Neutral at Piper Jaffray.
Steris (NYSE: STE) was upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Stephens.
Validea is an intriguing newsletter that selects stocks based on the strategies of the market's most legendary investors. Here, editor John Reese takes a look at Aeropostale (NYSE: ARO).
"This mall-based clothing retailer targets youngsters age 14 to age 17 through more than 900 stores in 49 states, Puerto Rico, and Canada.
"The company has developed a new retail store concept called P.S. from Aeropostale, which will offer casual clothing and accessories focusing on elementary school children between the ages of seven and 12.
September same-store sales are rolling in this Thursday morning, and the news for the teen/tween retailers may hold some hope. Leading off the clothing genre is American Eagle Outfitters (NYSE: AEO), which posted perhaps the best news in the group. Of course, by best news I mean that AEO's sales didn't drop as much as people predicted.
The retailer had flat same-store sales in September, at the top end of its forecast range for a drop of 4.1% to flat sales. Thing is, these results will probably spur a bit of a rally for the stock, mainly because they weren't as bad as they could have been.
All three of the major indexes finished Tuesday in the red, but there were several big names that moved up to new 52-week highs in Tuesday's trading.
Walgreen Co. (NYSE: WAG): The drugstore giant had a really good day on Wall Street after posting better than expected earnings in the morning before the market opened. The company posted earnings of 44 cents per share versus analyst estimates of 39 cents. The stock set a new 52-week high of $38.44 and closed the day up 9.2% at $37.35.
American Eagle Outfitters (NYSE: AEO), a fashion retailer that competes with Gap (NYSE: GPS) and Abercrombie & Fitch (NYSE: ANF), didn't do too well in Q2. Total sales went down 5%, and earnings per share on a GAAP basis fell a most awful 50% to 14 cents. According to Bloomberg, the adjusted earnings of 12 cents per share came up short of analyst expectations by three pennies.
Same-store sales hit the double-digit mark to the downside: they decreased 10%. Not a good number for this kind of business. Promotional markdowns helped to drive the gross margin down. The operating margin also took a hit.
Canadian banks are scheduled to step into the earnings spotlight this week, with third-quarter reports coming from Bank of Montreal (NYSE: BMO), Bank of Nova Scotia (NYSE: BNS), Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (NYSE: CM), Royal Bank of Canada (NYSE: RY), and Toronto-Dominion Bank (NYSE: TD). While Canadian banks on the whole held up better than their U.S. counterparts during the financial crisis, these five are expected to report that their earnings are still declining in the most recent quarter.
Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters are looking for EPS for these banks to have fallen from 15% to 25% from a year ago. Their long-term EPS growth forecast is for between 10% and 12%, which is in the same range as U.S. rivals JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM) and Wells Fargo & Co. (NYSE: WFC), but better than Bank of America Corp. (NYSE: BAC) and Citigroup Inc. (NYSE: C). Earnings multiples for these Canadian banks are 10x to 12x, but none of them have a First Call consensus recommendation is to buy. The Motley Fool, though, considers TD as a value stock and RY a stock poised to pop. All of them are trading much closer to their 52-week highs than lows, and shares of all are up more than 100% since March lows.
Aeropostale (NYSE: ARO), a retailer that competes with Abercrombie & Fitch (NYSE: ANF), American Eagle Outfitters (NYSE: AEO), and Gap (NYSE: GPS), posted what I thought was a superb second-quarter earnings summary on Thursday after the bell. The figures were very appealing, and I would've expected a better after-hours reaction by the stock to the news. Then again, the market can never be predicted. It will do whatever the heck it wants.
Net sales increased 20%. Not bad, am I right? Wait, check this out. Earnings per share came in at 57 cents, compared to the 31 cents reported in the year-ago quarter. According to Reuters, that was a penny ahead of expectations. But that penny beat on the bottom line isn't what impresses me the most. It's the strong per-share profit expansion that I find compelling.
Abercrombie & Fitch (NYSE: ANF) is such a funny stock story. The company reports what I thought was a quarter full of dire results, and the market still sends shares higher. They closed almost 4% higher, in fact, on Friday. I don't get it.
For the second quarter, sales decreased 23%, and the overall same-store sales statistic, which is a really important metric for retailers, sank 30%. A net loss of 30 cents per share was booked, mostly on the back of the discontinuation of the Ruehl business. Excluding the effect of the closure, Abercrombie made 8 cents per share, and that, according to Reuters, beat by a mile the expected loss of 7 cents per share.
AEO opened this morning at $14.50. So far today the stock has hit a low of $14.40 and a high of $14.95. As of 11:30, AEO is trading at $14.70 up 74 cents (5.3%). The chart for AEO looks neutral and S&P gives AEO a neutral 3 STARS (out of 5) hold ranking.
UBS upgraded Wendy's/Arby's (NYSE: WEN) to Buy from Neutral and raised its target to $5.50 from $4.90 based on improving sales momentum at Wendy's and potential improvements at Arby's.
Goldman upgraded 3M (NYSE: MMM) to Buy from Neutral and raised its target to $85 from $78. The firm cites 3M's short-cycle exposure and relative valuation for the upgrade.
Thomas Weisel upgraded JCPenney (NYSE: JCP) to Market Weight from Underweight citing comfort in the company's intermediate-term recovery potential.
UBS AG (NYSE: UBS) was upgraded to Buy from Hold at ING Group.
Gap (NYSE: GPS) was upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Barclays.
Alliance Healthcare (NYSE: AIQ) was upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Wells Fargo.