MOST NOTEWORTHY:

• Citigroup upgraded shares of International Paper (NYSE: IP) to Buy from Hold on valuation and their belief that recent declines in the dollar will support pulp, paper and paperboard prices going forward.
  
• Autodesk (NASDAQ: ADSK) was upgraded to Buy from Hold at Jefferies after their proprietary survey yielded positive data points going into Q3. They also raised their estimates due to currency. Broadpoint raised its rating on Oracle to Buy from Neutral on valuation following the recent underperformance.
  
• Oracle (NASDAQ: ORCL) was also upgraded to Sector Outperformer from Sector Performer at CIBC, as they believe the company's growing product portfolio, improving margins and successful acquisition strategy should continue to drive double-digit EPS gains.
  
• William Blair added Vistaprint (NASDAQ: VPRT) to its Current Better Values List. The firm believes the company has a large market opportunity and expects its business momentum to continue. They view the recent weakness as a buying opportunity.

• Merrill Lynch upgraded Alcatel-Lucent (NYSE: ALU) to Neutral from Sell.
  
• UBS upgraded Eagle Bulk Shipping (NASDAQ: EGLE) to Buy from Neutral.
  
• Affiliated Managers Group (NYSE: AMG) was upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Wachovia.
  
• Banc of America upgraded Andersons (NASDAQ: ANDE) to Buy from Neutral.

Analyst upgrades: IP, ADSK, ORCL and VPRT originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 14 Nov 2007 11:10:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

2006 was humbling because my picks (I focus on three stocks in each monthly edition) trailed the market throughout much of the year. However, they ended up prevailing due to a late December surge in some of the top performing stocks -- e.g., Telefonos de Mexico, S.A. (ADR) (NYSE: TMX) was up 36% from $20.83 when I first mentioned it to $28.26 and Wal-Mart de Mexico (ADR) (OTC: WMMVY) rose 28% from $34.25 (I blogged about it here) to $43.85. This was due to portfolio managers' practice of window dressing -- buying stocks that have done well right at the end of the year so they can report to their shareholders that they owned the stocks.

Since 1998, when public sources began tracking my stock picks, I've been fortunate to have outperformed the S&P 500 in all but one year (in 2003, my stock picks were up 23% compared to 29% for the S&P 500). Since 1998, my stock picks have averaged a 67% annual return compared to a 6% return for the S&P 500. However, 2006 was by far the worst year for my stock picks -- the second worst was 2004 when my picks were up 20% compared to 9% for the S&P 500.

One of the key reasons for these results is limiting losses through a 2% stop loss on stocks mentioned in The Cohan Letter -- if a stock's price falls 2% below the level at which it was noted, the stock is sold. To put the importance of this rule into context, I used it to dump 61% of the 36 stocks highlighted in 2006. Without it, my stock picks would have lost money for investors.

So it is with a serious helping of humble pie that I offer these three stocks to consider for 2007:

Continue reading Three humbly-suggested stock picks for 2007

Three humbly-suggested stock picks for 2007 originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 03 Jan 2007 10:44:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.