TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says the exchange rate plus massive undervaluations make the great brands prime targets.
There's always been a groupthink in Europe about currencies. The companies that want to buy American companies have, at times, seemed to care more about the currency, or at least not buying a company in a country whose currency is in decline, than they care about the actual target.
That's what it looks like now that a large German company and now a large Italian company have decided to start splurging. It is no coincidence that Deutsche Tel (NYSE: DT) (Cramer's Take) and Finmeccanica are exploring Sprint (NYSE: S) (Cramer's Take) and DRS (NYSE: DRS) (Cramer's Take). These companies are selling for something like 40% off for those bearing euros, and neither potential acquirer has debt problems or subprime issues, so the deals don't have big borrowing problems.
That's what I am thinking about when I see the better-than-expected figures today from Unilever (NYSE: UL) (Cramer's Take) and the other day from Nestle. These companies are part of that same groupthink. They are looking, no doubt, at a Heinz (NYSE: HNZ) (Cramer's Take) and thinking, "Wait, that's about a $10 billion company that's a global leader."
Allergan (NYSE: AGN) is trading lower today after an analyst at Jeffries & Co. downgraded the stock to "Hold" from "Buy." AGN's price target was also cut to $62 from $78. If you think this stock won't be rising too far in the coming months, then it could be a good time to look at a bearish hedged play on AGN.
After hitting a one-year high of $70.40 in January, the stock hit a one-year low of $52.26 last week. This morning, AGN opened at $55.65. So far today the stock has hit a low of $54.32 and a high of $56.45. As of 12:10, AGN is trading at $55.24, down $2.32 (-4.0%). The chart for AGN looks bearish but improving slightly, while S&P gives the stock a neutral 3 STARS (out of 5) hold rating.
For a bearish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a May bear-call credit spread above the $60 range. A bear-call credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of call options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 4.2% return in two weeks as long as AGN is below $60 at May expiration. Allergan would have to rise by more than 8% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.
AGN hasn't been above $60 since February and has shown resistance around $60 recently. This trade could be risky if the company's earnings (due out on 5/7) are a positive surprise, but even if that happens, this position could be protected by resistance AGN might find around $60, where it topped out in early April.
DISCLOSURE: Mr. Archer owns and/or controls diversified portfolios of long and short stock and option positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in AGN.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Dynamic Materials, Allergan and Sun Micro were among today's noteworthy downgrades:
Dynamic Materials (NASDAQ: BOOM) was downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at J.P. Morgan following the Q1 report based on margin risk from steel costs and availability.
Allergan (NYSE: AGN) was downgraded to Hold from Buy at Jefferies ahead of the Q1 report on May 7 based on potential deceleration in Botox and breast implants, which could result in multiple contractions.
Sun Microsystems (NASDAQ: JAVA) was downgraded to Peer Perform from Outperform at Bear, citing the disappointing earnings report for the downgrade.
OTHER DOWNGRADES:
ManTech (NASDAQ: MANT) was downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Cowen based on valuation and expectations for decelerating growth in 2H08.
Silver State Bancorp (NASDAQ: SSBX) was downgraded to Sell from Hold at Sandler O'Neil.
The choppy/consolidating (or perhaps worse) market conditions sometimes give the impression that growth plays do not exist, but that is not the case, and one growth company worth reviewing is Allergan.
Allergan, Inc. (NYSE: AGN) is a leading producer of ophthalmic, neuromuscular and skin care pharmaceuticals, and, via its March 2006 acquisition of Inamed Corp., aesthetic products.
Analysts see 10-13% revenue growth in 2008, but with U.S. sales growth dampened by the slow-growth U.S. economy. International markets accounted for about 34% of sales.
Concerning Botox, so far there has been no slowdown for therapeutic of cosmetic use, but the latter may record slower growth if U.S. discretionary purchases decline, in the quarters ahead.
Allergan Inc. (NYSE: AGN) opened at $119.35. So far today the stock has hit a low of $118.82 and a high of $119.75. As of 10:40, AGN is trading at $119.14, down $0.23 (-0.2%).
The stock climbed sharply throughout the spring to reach a year high of $125.00 on the final day of May, but has been falling quickly over the last two weeks. Jim Cramer believes that this stock fell more than it should have after Friday's downgrade from Morgan Stanley. He believes shares deserve to be higher, and with the stock falling a bit more still today, it may be a good time to go bargain hunting. Recent technical indicators for AGN have been bullish and steady, while S&P gives the stock a positive 4 STARS (out of 5) buy rating.
For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider an October bull-put credit spread below the $100 range. AGN hasn't been below $100 since last June and has shown support around $117 recently. This trade could be risky if the FDA finds trouble with one of AGN's medical products, but even if that happens, the stock could find some strong historical support around $105.
Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer. DISCLOSURE: Mr. Archer owns and/or controls diversified portfolios of long and short stock and option positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in AGN.
Banc of America downgraded shares of both Nike and Foot Locker to Neutral from Buy, as the firm believes industry pressures in the U.S. could more than offset the potential turn in Europe and benefit from the 2008 Olympics.
Cowen downgraded shares of ADTRAN, Bookham and Tellabs to Neutral from Outperform.
Goldman Sachs also downgraded shares of Tellabs, to Sell from Neutral, as the firm believes the stock fully discounts the expected sales and margin improvement.
OTHER DOWNGRADES:
Allergan Inc (NYSE: AGN) was downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Morgan Stanley citing limited upside.
Lehman downgraded shares of The First American Corporation (NYSE: FAF) to Equal-Weight from Overweight on increasing risk to the company's title margin and regulatory concerns.
Matrix USA downgraded shares of Lowe's Companies Inc (NYSE: LOW) to Buy from Strong Buy on valuation.
Matrix USA cut Allergan, Inc (NYSE: AGN) to Sell from Hold and Fifth Third Bancorp (NASDAQ: FITB) was downgraded to Underperform from Market Perform at Keefe Bruyette.
Allergan Inc. (NYSE: AGN) opened at $123.64. So far today the stock has hit a low of $123.40 and a high of $124.42. As of 12:20, AGN is trading at $124.09, up $0.45 (0.4%).
After a dip that began in late 2006, this stock found support in March and rebounded nicely, climbing to a new all-time high today. Jim Cramer called the Botox maker the "single best baby boomer play there is," shaking off concern that Medicis (NYSE: MRX) will come up with a cheap alternative that will hurt the Botox biz. Cramer believes Allergan's market is strong and will keep the stock going higher. Recent technical indicators for AGN have been bullish and steady, while S&P gives the stock a positive 4 STARS (out of 5) buy rating.
For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider an October bull-put credit spread below the $105 range. AGN hasn't been below $105 since July and has shown support around $117 recently. This trade could be risky if one of the company's products gets in trouble with the FDA, but even if that happens, this position could be protected by the strong historical support around $106.
Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer. Do you have any deadwood in your portfolio? Check out the 18 Warning Signs That Tell You When To Dump A Stock. DISCLOSURE: Mr. Archer owns and/or controls diversified portfolios of long and short stock and option positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in AGN or MRX.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Specialty pharmaceutical companies make up today's most noteworthy list:
The Bank of America initiated Shire plc (NASDAQ: SHPGY), Mentor Corp (NYSE: MNT), Alcon, Inc (NYSE: ACL) and Allergan, Inc (NYSE: AGN) with Buy ratings and initiated Cephalon, Inc (NASDAQ: CEPH), Forest Laboratories, Inc (NYSE: FRX), Sepracor Inc (NASDAQ: SEPR) with Neutral ratings. Bank of America's top pick is Shire plc as the firm expects the company to launch six products or product extensions by mid-2008, followed by Mentor Corp, as the conversion to silicone breast implants should drive a period of stronger-than-expected sales and earnings.
OTHER INITIATIONS:
Ford Motor Co (NYSE: F) was initiated at Buckingham with an Underperform rating and General Motors (GM) was started with a Neutral rating.
Nollenberger believes Under Armour, Inc (NYSE: UA), started with a Buy rating, is positioned to outperform the market based on the strength of its brand name and demand through the continued introduction of new products along with European growth.
Barr Pharmaceuticals, Inc (NYSE: BRL) was initiated with an Equal Weight rating and $53 target at Morgan Stanley.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Level 3 Communications (LVLT) and the Machinery Sector were the most notable initiations today.
Credit Suisse initiated Level 3 Communications (NASDAQ: LVLT) with an Outperform rating and $7.50 target; the firm expects Level 3 to continue to benefit from strong demand for higher data usage.
Morgan Stanley initiated the Machinery Sector with an In-Line rating.
Within the sector, Deere & Co (NYSE: DE) was started with an Overweight rating and $116 target, Terex Corp (NYSE: TEX) with an Equal Weight rating and $67 target, and Caterpillar Inc (NYSE: CAT) & Agco (NYSE: AG) with Underweight ratings and targets of $52 & $25 respectively.
OTHER INITIATIONS:
Baird initiated Alcatel-Lucent ADS (NYSE: ALU) with a Neutral rating and $15 target citing valuation and integration risks.
Ferris Baker Watts initiated Navigators Group (NASDAQ: NAVG) with a Sell rating and $43 target; the firm said Navigators' balanced growth will serve to reduce underwriting/EPS volatility when the next highly active catastrophe season surfaces.
Prudential initiated Allergan Inc (NYSE: AGN) with an Overweight rating and $138 target; the firm expects 2007 to be another strong year driven by medical aesthetics products acquired from Inamed in last year.
TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says the exchange rate plus massive undervaluations make the great brands prime targets.
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