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From Potash's (POT) standpoint, it's a growing world

Agriculture and agriculture services stocks are likely to remain star performers in the immediate years ahead, given the agriculture boom in emerging markets, and one preferred company worth an evaluation is Canada-based Potash Corp. (NYSE: POT).

Potash is an integrated producer of fertilizer, phosphate, and nitrogen, which is used in fertilizer and in industrial/consumer products.

Analysts really like POT's 12.9-million-ton potash production capacity, which represents an impressive 20% of the world's potash capacity.

Further, as one might sense with an emerging-market agriculture boom, sales have been robust, margins are solid, and the company has some price power: it's likely that price hikes will follow again in 2008, on top of price increases in 2007. The Reuters F2007/F2008 EPS consensus estimates for POT are $3.23/$5.50.

The risks? Analysts are keeping an eye on raw material and labor costs. A global economic slowdown would also obviously hurt POT's results. POT shares have also had a remarkable run in 2007, rising more than 200%: shares are vulnerable to large-dollar pull-backs, but those will be mild if POT continues to exceed EPS expectations.

Stock Analysis: Potash Corp. is a moderate-risk stock not suitable for low-risk investors. Investors with an investment horizon longer than two years should be rewarded from POT shares. Sell / Stop Loss if you were to purchase shares in this company: $85.

DISCLOSURE: Joseph Lazzaro has no positions in stocks. In addition to private real estate holdings, he owns corporate and municipal bonds, and cash certificates of deposit.

I am a bull on MOO: the Market Vectors Agribusiness ETF

Cow by Pikaluk For investors looking for a global way to play the agricultural boom, check out MOO, the Market Vectors Agribusiness ETF (NYSE: MOO). The MOO ETF tracks the DAX Global Agribusiness index (who would have ever thought there even was such a thing).

What is interesting is that this is a truly global index with about 50% exposure to non-U.S. companies. Having raised the exposure to Potash, this is still a well-diversified play, with exposure to chemicals, livestock and other categories. With the fertilizer business exploding and livestock prices moving higher, this is a great ETF for investors looking in these fields.

In addition, for investors who believer in asset-allocation models, this ETF works well, as it is an un-correlated asset.

CNH: A farming alternative to Deere

While investors and pundits debate the impact of ethanol on our long-term energy problems, one thing is clear according to Ivan Martchev -- the popularity of ethanol is having a "huge impact" on agribusinesses.

The editor of Vital Resource Investor explains, "Whether ethanol makes economic sense is less irrelevant. It is having an effect on farming." Indeed, he believes one of the best ways for investors to play the popularity of ethanol is to focus on farming equipment.

Within this market, he notes that the obvious choice for investors is industry leader Deere & Co. (NYSE: DE). However, he cautions that the stock already reflects investor optimism.

In addition, he notes, "The stock recently traded at $114, and many individual investors dislike buying triple-digit stocks." Therefore, he notes, he looked for a "worthy adversary to Deere" and found Case New Holland, whose name was recently shortened to CNH Global NV (NYSE: CNH).

The advisor calls CNH a restructuring story. He notes that the company is majority owned by Fiat, which is itself recovering from a "dire situation" two years ago.

Continue reading CNH: A farming alternative to Deere

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Last updated: November 26, 2009: 01:52 AM

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