Shares of seed and agricultural products company Monsanto Company (NYS: MON) plunged from $92 to $79 yesterday when the company lowered guidance. Monsanto has long been a favorite play on the growing demand for food. It's high-tech, genetically manipulated seeds can produce higher crop yields. No doubt, the food future looks bleak and that's good for Monsanto. But how long will investors have to wait before demand hockey sticks for these seeds and Monsanto can make higher prices stick?

Quietly, chocolate companies have been snapping up little makers of organic and fair trade chocolate; Cadbury, PLC (NYSE: CBY) started the trend by buying Green and Black's in 2005, and then Hershey (NYSE: HSY) jumped on the bandwagon, buying Dagoba Organic Chocolate in 2006.

Since then, fairly traded and organic chocolate bars have become more and more popular among consumers; while exact numbers are hard to find, organic chocolate sales have more than quadrupled since 2000 and were $94 million in 2007. Fair trade chocolate sales have been nearly doubling on a year-over-year basis since 2000.

On Friday, Standard & Poor's lowered its corporate credit rating for ConAgra Foods (NYSE: CAG). The ratings firm lowered CAG's rating to "BBB" from "BBB+" and removed all ratings on the company from CreditWatch with negative implications, attributing the move to weak credit and high operating costs.

S&P noted that higher operating costs have hurt margins, particularly in CAG's consumer foods segment. This part of CAG's business brought in 64% of the firm's fiscal 2008 revenue.

S&P believes that CAG will "modestly improve" credit measures from current levels during the next two years. S&P could revise CAG's outlook to negative if the firm becomes more aggressive in its financial policy. Currently, CAG's outlook is stable.

Agricultural entity Monsanto (NYSE: MON) reported Q2 numbers on Thursday. While some metrics were down, I came away from the earnings release thinking that the company is probably a good long-term holding. Short-term could be a different story, though, as the stock has had a run-up recently.

Sales increased 8% in the second quarter, but profits on a dollar basis decreased 3%. On an adjusted basis, however, net income beat Wall Street's expectations. Analysts were looking for $2.07 per share. Monsanto delivered $2.16 per share. Excellent.

The world's largest maker of farm equipment is due to report earnings on February 18 and the outlook is generally bleak. All of the major drivers behind Deere's (NYSE: DE) formidable business appear to be headed into a tailspin. Global agricultural commodity prices have come down significantly from peaks in 2007 and 2008, leaving farmers with less money to spend.

Daryll Ray, University of Tennessee professor and director of the college's Agricultural Policy Analysis Center, spoke to a group of Kansas farmers to present his views on world agriculture production.

Ray cautioned farmers not to look to agriculture as a continuous source of economic prosperity. He cited the current economic crisis and warned that future corn prices, instead of near $4.00 to $5.00 per bushel, may go in the opposite direction. He noted that Brazil and Ukraine are expanding their agricultural production. For years, farmers looked to China as a big export market. China, however, has been a net exporter of grain since 1996. China does import, but they export more than they import.

Secretary of Agriculture, Adrian Polansky, also spoke at the meeting and pointed out the benefits of ethanol production. He said that ethanol plants were employing upwards of 235 people in small towns in rural Kansas, Nebraska, and Iowa.

Do you expect food prices to decline this year?

This post is part of a special annual report -- Top Stock Picks '09 -- in which TheStockAdvisors.com asked 75 leading newsletter advisors to select their favorite investment for the new year.

"Trading near its all-time high, McDonald's (NYSE: MCD) -- my top idea for 2009 -- is a true relative-strength leader," says Ryan Detrick.

The technical analyst with Schaeffer's Investment Research, explains, "With the shares near their all-time high, MCD is a true relative-strength leader. Technically, the stock continues to find support from its rising 20-month moving average, as this trendline has provided support since mid-2003.

"McDonalds is the world's largest fast-food chain, with more than 31,000 restaurants worldwide. Given the record job losses and deteriorating worldwide economy, MCD should continue to do well as consumers will downgrade to more affordable dining options.

"Or as CEO Jim Skinner put it, 'McDonald's seems well positioned for recession. In bad times, people think twice about where to spend money when going out for food.'

The Mosaic Company (NYSE: MOS), the combined Cargill Crop Nutrition and IMC Global Inc., began trading as a Fortune 500 company immediately after its 2004 IPO, and became a dominant player in the fertilizer business.

In just a few short years, Mosaic would be in prime position to ride a global boom in agricultural crop demand that resulted in its shares skyrocketing more than $130 from trough to peak.

From a valuation standpoint, the move higher was completely justified and rational -- up to a point. When the hedge fund momentum investors climbed aboard, astute investors knew that the rapid rise was due for a correction.

The stock sold off hard during the summer, which culminated in a complete washout due to the credit crisis and global economic meltdown. MOS shares fell back to the mid-$30s.

As is often the case, the selling went too far and had more to do with forced liquidations instead of rational valuation metrics.

Shares of Monsanto Company (NYSE: MON) moved up strongly in premarket trading this morning, and opened over 8% higher as buyers move into the stock following strong first quarter numbers and raised full year guidance.

Going into this morning's earnings announcement, analysts had been expecting to the see Monsanto, which supplies agricultural products for farmers in the United States and internationally, to show first quarter earnings of $0.59 per share, but the company blew out analyst estimates by reporting $0.98 per share for its first quarter.

Looking at company revenue for the quarter, Monsanto also shattered analyst estimates by raking in $2.65 in the quarter as opposed to estimates of $2.41 billion, an increase of 29% for the company.

The company also raised fully year guidance and the stock is benefiting from that too. Previously, Monsanto had issued full year 2009 guidance of $4.20 to $4.40, but lifted that estimate today to a range between $4.40 and $4.50.

Shares of the stock have opened over 8% higher, and by 9:45 am jumped over 15%, adding $11.10 to $84.32. It closed yesterday at $73.46.

Michael Fowlkes has worked as a stock trader for seven years and spent the last four years working as an analyst for the online investment advisory service Investor's Observer.

This post was written by Minyanville contributor Jeff Macke.

Good Morning from New York, where the coffee is thick as mud and only slightly less bitter than the news from Toyota Motor Corp. (NYSE: TM). The Japanese automaker said it would be shutting down production for 11 days in the face of falling demand. There are also unconfirmed reports that Japan's finest will dump its planned expansions in Russia and Thailand, which I view as "good news" and "bad news," respectively.

Toyota shook off horrible sales reports yesterday. but there's only so much shaking it can do. These reports are like the straws on a camel's back...too many and eventually the load becomes too great. So is the straw that breaks the camel's back factored in to Toyota's stock? Watch TM today.

Your other tell du jour is The Mosaic Company (NYSE: MOS) which is slightly higher pre-market after reporting last night. Mosaic posted an earnings beat and horrific outlook. That outlook is one traders should be expecting from most, if not all, of the Global Growth names which have been rallying sharply of late after crashing in '08. Have traders looked past the earnings slump this year or are they in denial about just how bad it's going to get? The guess here is "probably a little denial and a touch of forward looking."

Whatever your guess, the trading in Toyota and Mosaic today will offer a decent near-term trading tell for how stocks on the bleeding edge of the demand collapse.

This post is part of a special annual report -- Top Stock Picks '09 -- in which TheStockAdvisors.com asked 75 leading newsletter advisors to select their favorite investment for the new year.

"Monsanto Company (NYSE: MON), my favorite investment idea for 2009, should prosper regardless of how the economy performs," Charles Rotblut, CFA and editor of Zacks Elite.

In the same sector, Tracey Ryniec, editor of The Zacks Value Trader looks to Corn Products International (NYSE: CPO), noting, "Despite a tough economy, this 100-year old company is positioned to reap the rewards from growth in agriculture."

Regarding Monsanto, Rotblut continues, "Monsanto helps farmers improve their crop yields, via both better seeds and herbicides. In blunt terms, MON provides solutions that most farmers will view as more of a necessity than a luxury.

"The data supports this assessment. Since fiscal 2005, revenues have more than doubled, rising from $5.3 billion to $11.4 billion. Net income has jumped nearly tenfold and free cash flow is up substantially.

"Looking forward, Monsanto thinks fiscal 2009 profits will total $4.20 to $4.40 per share -- an approximate 18% increase over fiscal 2008. The company also thinks that gross profits will grow by a compound annual growth rate of 15% to 20% over the next 3 years.

The irony of it is that food prices have dropped from record highs in the summer to fairly reasonable levels, but that could put some farmers out of business. Welcome to the world of deflation.

According to The Wall Street Journal, "A slowdown in new farmland development could hinder efforts to ease the global food shortage. Earlier this year, those shortages triggered riots from Haiti to Egypt to Pakistan and raised fears of permanently higher prices for basic foodstuffs."

Everyone assumed that a recession would move food prices lower or at least keep them at current levels. Budgets that were strained by high commodities prices might gets some relief which they will need as employment and consumer prices fall.

The problems may be especially acute in the US where some farmers have been making a fortune off corn due to feed demand and ethanol. Many of those farmers decided to expand, take on more debt, and buy new equipment. The price of corn has dropped like a rock over the last five months. How are those farmers going to keep up with the debt service? In many cases, they won't.

Get ready to pay more for an ear of corns and a loaf of bread. Farm failures are sending food prices back up.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 24/7 Wall St.

"Agriculture-related stocks have been hammered; as a result, we are now buyers of Monsanto (NYSE: MON)," says Glenn Rogers in Gordon Pape's The Internet Wealth Builder.

"Monsanto just recently released solid earnings and raised guidance for the year. They are now looking for earnings of $3.58 to $3.60 a share, up from $3.37 previously.

"The company said the change reflected higher-than-expected sales and gross profit in its seeds and traits business and its Roundup and other glyphosate-based herbicide business.

"The stock is down almost 20% from its all-time high of $145.80 reached in mid-June, but has lately been showing signs of renewed strength. Farmers may defer the purchase of a tractor but seed is likely to be the last place they will scrimp.

"There aren't many stocks that I am actively buying in the current market conditions but Monsanto is an exception. We rate the stock a buy."

Steven Halpern's TheStockAdvisors.com offers a daily look at the latest market commentary and favorite stock picks and investment ideas from the nation's leading financial newsletter advisors.

Analysts have been negative on the agri-business processing sector recently, but the stocks have been shedding value for two months and they may have to reconsider. Bunge Ltd. (NYSE: BG) is delivering 42% growth according to Smart Money.

The stock is down 16% from my original post recommending it for 2008 and it is trading down more this morning. However, I have not changed my opinion about the prospects of the company and my original rational has remained solid despite the wild swings in the stock over the past few months.

Last year when I posted Serious Money: ADM, Bunge, Potash Corp. -- it's a hungry world it looked like there was no downside, and even though it is disappointing to see the stock down now, all I can say is the investment opportunity is even better. As they are a leading producer of soy and soy products, how can one resist this level of growth at a P/E of 8, half the market average?

Kudos to my colleague Elizabeth Harrow for pointing out that shares of Deere & Company (NYSE: DE) may be heading for a fall. As today's earnings report shows, her post was on the money.

Net income rose to $575.2 million, or $1.32 per share. Revenue soared 17% to $7.74 billion. Analysts had expected profit of $1.36 per share on revenue of $7.23 billion. Shares of the largest farm equipment maker had their biggest drop in two decades, according to Bloomberg.

What's killing Deere is rising raw material costs. The company's overall business is doing fine. Agricultural sales rose 35% in the quarter. Not surprisingly Commercial and Consumer revenue fell 1% and Construction and Forestry declined 7%.