Analyst Upgrades

• Dynegy (DYN) was upgraded to buy from neutral at Pritchard.
• Itron (ITRI) was upgraded to neutral from underperform at Macquarie.
• Goldman upgraded Ameren (AEE) to sell from conviction sell.
• Signet Jewelers (SIG) was upgraded to buy from hold at Societe Generale.
• JPMorgan upgraded Synopsys (SNPS) to overweight from neutral.

Analyst Upgrades

• Time Warner Cable (TWC) was upgraded to outperform from market perform at Bernstein.
• Citigroup upgraded MEMC Electronic (WFR) and Skilled Healthcare (SKH) to buy from hold at Citigroup.
• Administaff (ASF) was upgraded to buy from hold at Roth Capital.
• The Buckle (BKE) was upgraded to buy from hold at KeyBanc.
• BofA/Merrill upgraded DreamWorks (DWA) to neutral from underperform.
• Corrections Corp. (CXW) was upgraded to buy from neutral at SunTrust.
• Marvell Technology (MRVL) was upgraded to positive from neutral at Susquehanna.

Analyst Upgrades

• Piper Jaffray upgraded Edwards Lifesciences (EW) to overweight from neutral and raised its target price for shares to $77 from $53 after The New England Journal of Medicine reported the company's PARTNER Trial met primary endpoints.
• UBS upgraded Endo Pharmaceuticals (ENDP) to buy from neutral and raised its price target to $36 from $25. UBS is positive on Endo's creative strategic deals and believes the switch to Opana TRF from Opana ER will be easy. Additionally, the analyst believes pipeline expectations are very low.
• BMO Capital upgraded Nvidia (NVDA) to outperform from market perform based on expectations that share loss in the core GPU business will stop, Tegra momentum and valuation. The firm raised its price target to $16 from $9.
• FirstEnergy (FE) and Allegheny Energy (AYE) were upgraded to outperform from neutral at Credit Suisse.
• Mylan (MYL) was upgraded to conviction buy from buy at Goldman. Warner
• Chilcott (WCRX) was upgraded to overweight from equal weight at Morgan Stanley.

CF Industries (CF - option chain) stock is trading lower today after the situation surrounding two takeover deals continues to get murkier. Agrium (AGU) announced this morning that CF's stockholders tendered 62% of their shares into a hostile takeover offer launched by AGU. AGU extended the offer, which originally was to expire yesterday, to December 18. Meanwhile, CF's board said that it does not believe that the tender results reflect stockholder support for Agrium's offer. At the same time, Terra Industries (TRA) is fending off a hostile bid made by CF. The uncertainty surrounding this situation is holding back CF shares and if you think this stock won't be rising too far in the coming months, then it could be a good time to look at a bearish hedged play on the stock.

This morning, CF opened at $83.60. So far today the stock has hit a high of $82.50 and a low of $84.48. As of 11:50, TRA is trading at $82.71, down $3.58 (-4.2%). The chart for CF looks neutral and S&P gives CF a neutral 3 STARS (out of 5) hold ranking.

Analyst upgrades:

• Jefferies upgraded Aruba Networks (NASDAQ: ARUN) to Buy from Hold following the company's Q3 results to reflect improved visibility. The firm raised its target price to $6.50 from $3.
• Citigroup upgraded Mosaic (NYSE: MOS) and Potash (NYSE: POT) to Buy from Hold and Agrium (NYSE: AGU) to Hold from Sell as it believes stronger grain fundamentals more than offset China contract risk. The firm raised its target on Mosaic to $72 from $48, on Potash to $145 from $83 and on Agrium to $55 from $36.
• Fulton Financial (NASDAQ: FULT) Was upgraded to Market Perform from Underperform at Keefe Bruyette.
• Rio Tinto (NYSE: RTP) was raised to Neutral from Sell at Goldman.
• Noble Corp. (NYSE: NE) was upgraded at Deutsche Bank to Buy from Hold.

The fertilizer sector is one sector that investors who can tolerate moderate risk should not pass up.

I'm Reiterating a Buy recommendation for Potash (NYSE: POT), re-established with a Buy recommendation here on March 31, 2009, and for Mosaic (NYSE: MOS), re-established here on April 3, 2009; and adding a Buy recommendation for Agrium (NYSE: AGU).

Potash Corp of Saskatchewan (NYSE: POT - option chain) shares have jumped higher today after the company announced it will cut potash output in 2009 by 2 million tonnes (metric tons), or about 20%, due to weakening demand. Competitor Agrium (NYSE: AGU) also announced production cuts today, which is helping to send agricultural futures higher. Lower production levels could keep prices from falling further. If you think that the stock won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on POT.

POT opened this morning at $63.90. So far today the stock has hit a low of $63.26 and a high of $68.95. As of 12:15, POT is trading at $68.59, up 6.73 (10.9%). The chart for POT looks bullish and S&P gives POT a positive 4 STARS (out of 5) buy ranking.

For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a January bull-put credit spread below the $45 range. A bull-put credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of put options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 7.4% return in just five weeks as long as POT is above $45 at January expiration. POT would have to fall by more than 34% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.

POT hasn't been below $47.50 at all in the past year and has shown support around $62 recently.

Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer.

DISCLOSURE: Mr. Archer owns and/or controls diversified portfolios of long and short stock and option positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in POT or AGU.

The focus of last week's preview was on oil and energy companies, and we saw that big oil had a good week, reporting better-than-expected results and record profits driven by high prices in the third quarter. Energy-related companies are well represented again this week and expectations in general remain high.

Early in the week, analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial anticipate that the big earnings gainers will include EOG Resources Inc. (NYSE: EOG), Anadarko Petroleum Corp. (NYSE: APC), and Cimarex Energy Co. (NYSE: XEC), which are expected to post profits of $2.24 per share (up 64.7% from a year ago), $1.48 per share (up 52.7%) and $2.26 per share (up 61.1%) respectively. All three of them have offered positive surprises in recent quarters, and analysts on average recommend buying EOG and Anadarko. Other expected big earnings gainers early in the week include Forest Oil Corp. (NYSE: FST), Pioneer Natural Resources Co. (NYSE: PXD), Comstock Resources Inc. (NYSE: CRK), and MasterCard Inc. (NYSE: MA). The earnings of phosphates producer Innophos Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: IPHS) are expected to have risen 92.3% to $3.37 per share. Innophos beat estimates in the previous quarter by a whopping 210%, and analysts have been impressed with Innophos's lack of debt and pricing gains despite the slowing economy, so, on average, they recommend buying IPHS.

Also early in the week, analysts expect Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co. (NYSE: GT), Kaiser Aluminum Corp. (NASDAQ: KALU), and Oshkosh Corp. (NYSE: OSK) to report that their profits fell 52.9% to $0.33 per share, 45.1% to $0.67 per share, and 41.2% to $0.67 per share, respectively. These companies have tended to beat estimates in recent quarters, and the consensus recommendations of analysts are to buy them. However, PMI Group Inc. (NYSE: PMI), one of the largest private mortgage insurance providers in the U.S., is expected to take another hit as the housing slump drags on. The California-based company is expected to have widened its net loss from $1.04 per share a year ago to $2.43 per share in the most recent quarter. Its shares are down 84.5% from a year ago, and have been trading recently near their 52-week low.

Agrium (NYSE: AGU), North America's third largest fertilizer producer, closed at $38.78 Thursday. AGU November option implied volatility of 113 is above its 26-week average of 70 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.

Potash (NYSE: POT) closed at $84.71 Thursday. POT November option implied volatility of 102 is above its 26-week average of 69 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.

Terra Industries (NYSE: TRA), a producer of nitrogen products, closed at $21.82 Thursday. TRA November option implied volatility of 110 is above its 26-week average of 80, suggesting larger price movement.

Mosaic (NYSE: MOS), a producer of crop nutrients, closed at $37.81 Thursday. MOS November option implied volatility of 109 is above its 26-week average of 76 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movements.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says the writing's on the wall, so position yourself accordingly.

If the ethanol mandate is scratched, what will that do to Potash (NYSE: POT) (Cramer's Take) and Mosaic (NYSE: MOS) (Cramer's Take) and Agrium (NYSE: AGU) (Cramer's Take)?

Here's the answer every hedge fund knows: It will not let you raise numbers in the out years.

Right now there is a tremendous struggle going on about near-term and far-term earnings growth and what we can expect to see. Everyone knows when Mosaic and Potash report next week that the numbers will be beaten and the estimates raised.

Everyone knows that the numbers will be far better than whatever drove Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) (Cramer's Take) up 80% in less than a fortnight, that doubled Wachovia (NYSE: WB) (Cramer's Take).

But so what? If you scrap the ethanol mandate or if people even think that it will be scrapped, you will see grains collapse just as quickly as oil collapsed when we found a level we didn't need it -- remember, we don't "need" ethanol, but it is mandated.

Readers of this space know that my investment bias is toward large-cap companies with demonstrated business models that have a competitive advantage in established markets, preferably with a favorable global trend as a support. Moreover, there are few more-favorable global trends than food production, and with the above in mind, Agrium is worth a review.

Agrium (NYSE: AGU) is the No. 1 producer and seller of fertilizers in North America, including nitrogen, as well as potash and phosphate products.

The company has an 8-million-ton nutrient production capacity, but production is only half the equation: AGU also has more than 400 retail outlets in the U.S. and South America -- the back-end side of the revenue equation.

The top U.S. retailer of crop supplies, Agrium's products are also sold in Canada, Mexico, Brazil and Asia. Analysts really like AGU's plan to expand, and hopefully double, this $2 billion revenue stream within five years, stemming from emerging market demand. The Reuters F2008/F2009 EPS consensus estimates for AGU are $8.21/$9.53.

Agrium (NYSE: AGU) is a leading producer and marketer of agricultural nutrients, in North and South America. The firm's plants can produce more than eight million tons of fertilizers per year. These are sold to wholesale distributors and through more than four hundred company retail outlets. Agrium also participates in a joint venture with Repsol YPF (NYSE: REP), operating Argentina's largest nitrogen plant. Potash Corporation of Saskatchewan (NYSE: POT) is a major competitor.

The company pleased investors last week, when it raised its Q2 EPS guidance from $1.92-$2.22 to $2.80-$3.00. The Street had been expecting $2.50. Management attributed the positive outlook to strong global crop prices and the resulting solid performances by both its retail and wholesale operations. BMO Capital Markets subsequently reiterated its "outperform" rating on the shares and boosted its price target to $125.

Agrium (NYSE: AGU) increased Q2 guidance to $2.80-$3.00 vs. prior estimates of $1.92-$2.22.

• AGU is hosting an analyst meeting today.
  
• AGU closed at $100.13 Wednesday.
  
• RBC Capital has a $115 price target on AGU.
  
• AGU June & July option implied volatility of 58 is above its 26-week average of 54 according to Track Data, suggesting slightly larger risk.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says the market's a mess, but the S&P oscillator and buyout offers could give an opportunity for trades.

Here we are again. Another unfathomable moment to buy stocks.

You have the financials just falling apart at the seams.

Oil and the grains are out of control.

The Fed chairman and the Treasury secretary have declared the worst is over even as we await the demise of a half-dozen banks, and we question the solvency of Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM) (Cramer's Take) and Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE) (Cramer's Take). The only stocks working are Mosaic (NYSE: MOS) (Cramer's Take), Agrium (NYSE: AGU) (Cramer's Take), Potash (NYSE: POT) (Cramer's Take) and a handful of natural gas companies.

It's crazy out there.

And yet my best indicator, the Standard & Poor's oscillator, which you can order from their Web site, is saying you cannot be short here and should be doing some buying. The oscillator, when it has been at minus 5, has called a bottom almost every time in the last decade, plus or minus a day or two, and a percent or even two, and I have long since learned not to see through it.

"We think we've seen the worst and will likely see some improvement in the economy going forward," says growth stock specialist Harry Domash, editor of Winning Investing.

Among his buy recommendations, the advisor looks at two agriculture plays: Agrium (NYSE: AGU), a producer of fertilizers, and the diversified exchange-traded fund, PowerShares DB Commodity (ASE: DBC).

"Headquartered in Calgary, Alberta, Agrium is a major North American producer and marketer of fertilizers. Agrium operates plants in Canada, the U.S., and in Argentina. Its major product is nitrogen fertilizer but it also makes potash and phosphate products.

"Agrium sells to wholesalers and through more than 800 company-owned retail stores in the U.S., Canada, and South America. Its stores also sell seed and other farm supplies.

"Agrium just recently completed its acquisition of UAP Holding, which had operated 370 distribution and storage facilities North America. Everything related to agriculture is booming, and Agrium, not counting its UAP acquisition, is growing sales around 30% annually.