As stocks continue to drift lower and lower, the risk/reward bias is starting to shift to the long side. Make no mistake, there are still tremendous risks in this market, but for risk-embracing, long-term investors it may be time to start wading back into equities.

If you want to bet on a second half rebound and are looking to get plenty of upside potential in return, the place to look is in the private-equity complex. In particular, Fortress Investment Group (FIG), The Blackstone Group (BX) and Apollo Investment Corp. (AINV) will give you plenty of bang for your buck if the current downtrend reverses itself.

Analyst Upgrades

• FBR Capital upgraded Halliburton (HAL) to outperform from market perform as it sees less headline risk from the Gulf of Mexico spill following Wednesday's House Energy and Commerce Committee hearing. The firm upped its target for shares to $44 from $35.
• FBR Capital also upgraded Morgan Stanley (MS) to outperform from market perform as it views the valuation as attractive following the recent pullback in shares. The firm maintains a $35 price target for shares.
• Deutsche Bank upgraded Avnet (AVT) to buy from hold on valuation; it views the recent pullback as a buying opportunity. The firm raised its target for shares to $39 from $36.
• U.S. Steel (X) was upgraded to conviction buy from buy at Goldman.
• News Corp. (NWS) was upgraded to buy from hold at Argus.
• Sprint (S) was upgraded to outperform from market perform at Raymond James.

Analyst upgrades:

• FBR Capital upgraded KBW, Inc (NYSE: KBW) to Market Perform from Underperform as it sees increased capital-raising opportunities for small and mid-sized banks and believes the company's quarter is off to a strong start. The firm raised its target price to $23 from $18.
• Pali Capital upgraded Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) to Buy from Neutral on expectations the company's strategic shift towards advisory, distribution and retail will be monetized sooner than expected and its capital markets business is gaining traction. The firm set a $33 target on the stock.
• Baird upgraded Stericycle (NASDAQ: SRCL) to Outperform from Neutral and raised its target to $58 from $55 based on valuation predictable earnings, and its market leading platform.
• Apollo Investment (NYSE: AINV) was raised to Outperform from Market Perform at Keefe Bruyette.
• HSBC Holdings (NYSE: HBC) was lifted at Goldman to Buy from Neutral.
• Dow Chemical (NYSE: DOW) was upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Credit Suisse.

Analyst upgrades:

• Jefferies upgraded shares of Constellation Energy (NYSE: CEG) to Buy from Hold and raised its target to $26.50 from $25 on valuation as they believe MidAmerican Energy will consummate the merger. The firm points out shares are trading at a 14% discount to the $26.50 offer.
  
• Merriman upgraded Denny's Corp. (NASDAQ: DENN) to Buy from Neutral as they believe the company's restructuring and successful menu and food cost management should stabilize operating margins.
  
• Daimler (NYSE: DAI) was upgraded at Merrill to Buy from Neutral on valuation as they believe the stock is oversold at current levels.
• Taiwan Semi (NYSE: TSM) was upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at HSBC.
  
• Veolia Environnement (NYSE: VE) was lifted to Neutral from Underperform at Credit Suisse.
  
• Goldman raised PMC Sierra (NASDAQ: PMCS) to Buy from Neutral.

Analyst downgrades:

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says the only action in the sector is that the rumor mill is spinning overtime.

There are tons of ridiculous stories that can be written in the Naked City. Notice that every day we are blessed with a story about how there are three private-equity firms examining Lehman Brothers (NYSE: LEH) (Cramer's Take) and Neuberger Berman (NYSE: NEU) (Cramer's Take). I think I have read that story a dozen times now.

You can list them, too: Blackstone (NYSE: BX) (Cramer's Take), KKR (NYSE: KFN) (Cramer's Take), Apollo (NASDAQ: AINV) (Cramer's Take), maybe Cerberus. What are they going to do, deny it? "No, we are not looking at it?" Their investors would love that: "Well what the heck are they doing with our money?" would be the reaction of investors if they issued denials. I predict weeks more of phantom tire-kicking of Lehman by nonexistent private-equity firms.

How about private equity about to swarm over collateralized debt obligations? Usual cast of characters there. Right? Come on, those stories are a penny a dozen. Every day I read about them. But nobody, other than Lone Star, is doing anything, anything at all on this front. If there were buyers, you can bet that Lehman and AIG (NYSE: AIG) (Cramer's Take) wouldn't be in the woods, lost, hopeless, with tons of bad European paper.

For 25 years, Steven Halpern, editor of TheStockAdvisors.com, has surveyed the leading financial newsletter advisors asking for their favorite stocks for the coming year. This article is one of 100+ ideas in the Best Stocks for 2008 report.

"My favorite conservative idea for 2008 is Apollo Investment Co. (NASDAQ: AINV)," says Adrian Day, editor of The Global Analyst.

"The company makes investments of debt and equity to medium-sized businesses, and a Regulated Investment Co. pays out most of its net income in dividends. Like other RICs, the dividends tend to be high and growing, but also like other RICs, it was caught up in the market turbulence of the past few months affecting all finance companies.

"Apollo Investment, the public arm of the eponymous New York private equity firm, came out just over three years ago. It is large ($2.2 billion market cap), financially conservative, and tends to do larger deals than most similar outfits.

"Its average investment is now just over $47 million, and as the fund grows, this should get larger still. It has investments in 67 companies, just over half of which is in sub debt.

MOST NOTEWORTHY: CheckFree Corp (CKFR), Sprint Nextel Corp (S) and the semiconductor capital equipment sector were some of today's more noteworthy downgrades:

• Piper Jaffray downgraded Checkfree Corp (NASDAQ: CKFR) to Market Perform from Outperform after transferring coverage of the payment processor company.
• Sprint Nextel Corp (NYSE: S) was cut to Outperform from Strong Buy at Raymond James.
• Lehman cut the semiconductor capital equipment sector to Neutral from Positive, downgrading Cascade Microtech, Inc (NASDAQ: CSCD), Novellus Systems, Inc (NASDAQ: NVLS) and Teradyne, Inc (NYSE: TER) to Equal Weight from Overweight and cut Electroglas, Inc (NASDAQ: EGLS) to Underweight from Equal Weight.

OTHER DOWNGRADES:

• ThinkEquity cut Jones Soda Co (NASDAQ: JSDA) to Source of Funds from Buy based on valuation.
• Goldman is now cautious on the biofuel sector, downgrading the group to Cautious from Neutral.
• William Blair downgraded shares of Medimmune, Inc (NASDAQ: MEDI) to Market Perform from Outperform.
• Credit Suisse downgraded shares of Big 5 Sporting Goods Corp (NASDAQ: BGFV) to Underperform from Neutral citing valuation.
• Wachovia dropped Inkeepers USA Trust (NYSE: KPA) to Underperform from Outperform based on the acquisition from Apollo Investment Corp (AINV). Citigroup cut Inkeepers to Hold from Buy.

Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).

The folks at Apollo Management have been loading up on real estate lately. One deal that closed last week was the buyout of Realogy, which has an assortment of residential real estate brokerages such as Century 21, Coldwell Banker, and ERA.

Another part of Apollo -- Apollo Investment Corporation (NASDAQ: AINV) -- is also making a play at real estate. Today, the firm agreed to pay $17.75 for Innkeepers USA Trust (NYSE: KPA). The valuation comes to roughly $1.5 billion.

Innkeepers is a REIT and operates a variety of hotel brands, like Residence Inns, Summerfield Suites and Hampton Inns. While the firm generates consistent cash flows, the deal is not cheap at its 14X EBITDA multiple. Then again, the company probably has expansion possibilities.

On today's announcement, Innkeepers' stock is trading up 8% to $17.77.

Tom Taulli is the author of various books, including the Complete M&A Handbook and the EDGAR-Online Guide to Decoding Financial Statements.

Since the story of private equity firm The Blackstone Group's potential initial public offering has been out only a couple hours, it is still very much developing. With so few details out, the implications are as yet unknown. Here is Tom Taulli's earlier piece on the subject.

From CNBC's Faber (you can watch the video here, partial transcript's here) we know that the Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE:GS) and Blackstone attorneys are preparing a prospectus. Preparing is one thing and filing is another, and yet Faber is quite adamant in his belief Blackstone will file within two weeks or by the end of March. Also, the decision to go public rests on Chairman and Chief Executive Stephen Schwarzman. Once again, an adamant Faber says "the decision has been all but made."

While Faber said that Blackstone's market value could be easily in excess of $20 billion according to bankers, MarketWatch points out that it isn't clear yet what kind of an IPO this would be. The shares could represent