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Low cost carriers own 30% of domestic airline biz, growing fast

For years, it's been evident that smaller airlines have had an operating advantage, particularly when they use less expensive airports. They've been able to post better numbers as a result, and in the current travel slump, they've outperformed the larger carriers. Well, they've also picked up a considerable amount of market share.

According to a report by USA Today, low cost carriers now have 30% of the market in the United States. Price-sensitive consumers are turning to cheaper alternatives, even if it means (for fliers with elite status) giving up the perks they've earned through years of customer loyalty.

Continue reading Low cost carriers own 30% of domestic airline biz, growing fast

AMR: Q3 could have been worse; AirTran solid

American Airlines had yet another difficult quarter, not unexpected in what has become an incredibly deep travel slump. The carrier's parent company, AMR Corp. (NYSE: AMR), reported a third quarter loss of $359 million, largely because there aren't as many business travelers taking to the skies. Corporate travel budgets in all industries are having an effect on all airlines, including AMR.

Revenue plunged 20.2% year-over-year for the third quarter for the nation's second airline. The loss comes after a $31 million gain last year. This quarter's losses would have been slightly better if write-downs for sold or grounded aircraft were excluded -- the loss would have been $265 million (93 cents a share) on revenue of $5.09 billion. With the write-downs, revenue clocked in at $5.13 billion. Cheaper fuel made the quarter a little easier for AMR to bear, as well, with this expense down 47% year-over-year.

Continue reading AMR: Q3 could have been worse; AirTran solid

UAL has almost good news for third quarter

The skies are starting to look a little friendlier to United Airlines (NASDAQ: UAUA). The airline reported a quarterly loss that was lower than expected. Third quarter traffic was off only 2.9%, but because United used discounts to fill seats, revenue fell 20.3% (to $4.43 billion). The key to a recovery will be getting passengers to shell out for more expensive seats. According to United's president, John Tague, "There's no opportunity here for a full revenue recovery until we get premium cabin pricing back." He doesn't know how long this is going to take, but does say that he's seen progress over the past few months.

Nonetheless, it's important not to confuse "not so bad" with "making money." UAL lost $57 million (39 cents a share) last quarter. If it hadn't had some good news on fuel hedges and accounting issues, the loss would have been 43 cents a share. Again, this is better than analysts polled by Thomson Reuters expected: they were forecasting a loss of 94 cents per share. And, the third quarter loss was much better than last year's $792 million for the third quarter.

But, it all comes down to the bottom line, and a loss is a loss is a loss.

Continue reading UAL has almost good news for third quarter

Extra airline fees to become the new 'normal'

If you think all those new airline fees were a temporary measure to help these beleaguered companies through an economic crisis, you're out of your mind. Now that they've had a taste of how much they can make by charging you for an extra bag or a little more leg room, they're hooked. More important, the fees are making up a meaningful portion of airline revenues and profits, so investors aren't likely to be satisfied with a return to normal – well, they can't. Extra fees are the new "normal."

Continue reading Extra airline fees to become the new 'normal'

Cheaper business class not helping airlines

Business travelers still aren't coming back to the good seats, despite airlines' best efforts. FareCompare.com reports that many business class tickets to Europe are going to be 33% to 66% cheaper this fall relative to last year. Companies are being careful with their cash – which means stacking people in coach rather than giving them a little leg room on overseas flights. With back-of-the-plane tickets going for a quarter of the price (or less) than their business class equivalents, this isn't exactly shocking.

On Wednesday, Delta's (NYSE: DAL) cheapest NYC-to-London's cheapest roundtrip coach fare was $716 (for an October 23 departure and October 30 return), according to a report in USA Today. To take the same trip in business class, you were looking at a hefty $4,634. So, even though prices are down year-over-year, it doesn't mean that business travelers are being allowed to enjoy the opportunity.

Continue reading Cheaper business class not helping airlines

Delta exploring stake in Japan Airlines

Delta Airlines (NYSE: DAL) is looking to buy a piece of Japan Airlines (OTC: JALSY). The move could give the world's largest airline access to more cities in Japan.

A source close to the talks says that the investment would be several hundred million dollars and would open the door for an alliance between the two that would allow each airline to book passengers on the other's flights.

Continue reading Delta exploring stake in Japan Airlines

Airlines stuck with double-digit revenue drop

The Air Transport Association announced that passenger revenue plunged 21% in July relative to the same month last year. This was the ninth month in a row that the industry has had to contend with what has been a brutal market for a perpetually beleaguered business.

The number of passengers hopping on flights fell 4% from July 2008 to July 2009, and the revenue situation wasn't helped by a decline of 18% in the average price a passenger paid to fly one mile.

Continue reading Airlines stuck with double-digit revenue drop

Singapore Airlines loss 'almost certain'

Staff cuts are coming for Singapore Airlines (OTC: SINGF) with calendar Q2 "almost certain" to be a money-loser. This won't be a first for the carrier, but it's definitely rare. Since going public in 1985, SINGF has only had one quarterly loss until now. It took the SARS epidemic to put this company into the red for three months, back in 2003. According to four of the five analysts polled, there was little the company could do to avert the situation.

In a respectable move, the staff cuts are following that of the executive team, which has had 10% to 20% sliced from its salaries. An operating loss of $50 million or more for Q2 will cause staff paychecks to fall by at least 2.5%. SINGF is on the hook to cut 25% of the "monthly variable component" (MVC) that's included in staff salaries if the airline's loss pierces the $50 million threshold. MVC disappears in its entirety if the loss passes the $200 million mark. Currently, MVC accounts for only 10% of employees' total compensation.

Employees have already been chipping in to reduce the airline's costs. Pilots, for example, have sacrificed 65% of a day's pay every month, and employees in general are working shorter weeks.

But, this hasn't been enough.

Continue reading Singapore Airlines loss 'almost certain'

AMR loses in Q2, however you measure it

AMR Corporation (NYSE: AMR) got spanked in the second quarter, as frequent fliers kept their feet on the ground. The American Airlines parent posted a $390 million loss in a quarter that historically has been kind to travel companies. AMR rationalizes the results with the thought that the loss would have been only $319 million ($1.14 per share) if charges related to selling and grounding planes were excluded. This would have put the airline ahead of analyst expectations of a $1.28 per share loss. AMR's Q2 revenue fell 21% to $4.89 billion.

And, it's far better than the airline's performance in the second quarter of 2008.

Continue reading AMR loses in Q2, however you measure it

DOT overrides Justice, Continental Airlines wins antitrust relief

Continental Airlines (NYSE: CAL) just got the relief it needs to compete. Despite resistance from the Department of Justice (which can only recommend), the Department of Transportation has granted the airline immunity from antitrust laws. This clears the way for Continental to work with United Airlines (NASDAQ: UAUA) -- and other carriers -- on international routes. Now, the airline can join Star Alliance, which already has antitrust immunity.

At the same time, DOT approved a joint venture among Continental, United, Lufthansa (OTC: DLAKY) and Air Canada. This new relationship would involve trans-Atlantic routes.

Continue reading DOT overrides Justice, Continental Airlines wins antitrust relief

Online travel to become cheaper in market share play

Desperate times call for desperate measures benefit consumers. As online travel agencies slug it out in the hunt for market share, many are starting to cut booking fees -- ironically, in stark contrast to what the airlines themselves are doing. While the airlines are looking to squeeze every last ounce of revenue from each passenger mile, the websites that put people in seats are hungry for any competitive advantage they can find.

Orbitz Worldwide (NYSE: OWW) has permanently kicked its airline booking fees on both domestic and international flights. Travelocity is following suit, to a limited extent, at least, by continuing to wave booking fees ... a measure that Expedia Inc (NASDAQ: EXPE) is taking, as well. What started as promotions are fast becoming the norm.

Continue reading Online travel to become cheaper in market share play

U.S. travel exports to rebound in 2010

How can exports not rebound? Last year ended on a sour note after posting record results, and 2009 is by all accounts likely to be ugly. The tourism and travel industry is expected to shed more than 200,000 jobs this year. Fortunately, there's a light at the end of the tunnel. The U.S. Department of Commerce expects international visits to the United States to come back in 2010 – after its first forecasted year of decline (i.e., 2009) since 2003.

This year, international travel to the United States is expected to fall 8%. The following year, however, U.S. travel exports are expected to gain 5%, with 5% annual increases through the end of 2013. We'll come out ahead in all this, but it's going to take some time.

Will the influx of foreign visitors over the next four years be enough to turn the travel industry in the United States around? It's too soon to tell right now, and much will depend on the contributions made by domestic routes. Needless to say, even this glimmer of hope must be welcome to investors committed to the airline and hotel sectors.

British Airways: worst loss in 20+ years

British Airways (LSE: BA) lost ₤375 million ($595 million) in the 12 months ending March 31, 2009. This is down from a profit of ₤712 million ($1.1 billion) the year before. The airline, which was privatized in 1987, has never sustained a loss this great. As a result, British Airways will not pay any dividends to shareholders -- or bonuses to the management team.

Weaker demand and spikes in fuel costs are cited as the reasons for the year-over-year record loss. Revenue was up 2.9% (₤8.99 billion) year-over-year, but this was not enough to offset a 45% increase in fuel costs -- to ₤2.97 billion. Demand problems struck in the fourth quarter, with revenue dropping 8.4% to ₤1.9 billion.

Its previous record loss was ₤200 million for the year ending in 2002.

Ryanair annoyance fees could be top-line advantage

Passenger annoyance has been on the rise over the past year, as airlines have found new and unusual fees to charge passengers. European low-cost carrier Ryanair (NASDAQ: RYAAY) has been at the tip of the spear, at one point considering a charge for access to the lavatory. The hidden secret in all this is that it works.

Ryanair's latest fee is nothing short of brilliant. The airline is now slapping customers with a €10 ($14) charge for printing boarding passes at home ... and €40 ($55) to do so at the airport. Since there's no other way to get your boarding pass, this translates to a minimum fee of $14 per flight (with a few small exceptions). Given the company's price advantage in the short-haul European space, the move is unlikely to drive passengers to competitors.

Continue reading Ryanair annoyance fees could be top-line advantage

Flash: Continental flight from Newark crashes in Buffalo, New York

At about 10:20 EST, Continental Flight 3407 (also reported as 1304), a commuter plane out of Newark, crashed into a home in Buffalo, New York. According to reports, all 48 people aboard -- 44 passengers and four crew members -- and one person on the ground were killed.

The scene is currently engulfed in flames. The plane had been quite late departing Newark was arriving two hours past its scheduled time when it crashed about 10 miles from Buffalo Niagara International Airport. The Q400 Bombardier aircraft was flying in fog, snow and wind.

After last month's crash landing of a US Airways flight, airline stocks have taken quite a hit, all down as much as 50% since their highs in early January. Good news for the crew of flight 1549 did not translate into good news for US Airways (NYSE: LCC), and certainly not for Continental Airlines Inc. (NYSE: CAL). Though the airline's stock will likely see big volatility at the start of trading on Friday, I don't expect this news to majorly impact the fortunes of either Continental or US Airways over the next 30 days.

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DJIA-14.2810,318.16
NASDAQ-10.782,146.04
S&P 500-3.521,091.38

Last updated: November 22, 2009: 01:59 AM

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