It was about 9 years ago that then-Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan warned investors of "irrational exuberance." Then at issue was the run up of hi-tech stocks. The question is if we are experiencing a similar "irrational exuberance" with regard to the surge in crude oil prices.

I know the arguments that there is too much demand for the available supply, that oil is a finite resource and the world is running out of crude, and that very few new sources of crude have come online in decades. My question is, didn't the market know this 6 months ago? All of the sudden oil traders woke up one morning and realized that we had all these problems?

What I don't understand is that you can't have it both ways. You can't claim that the world has entered a sustained slow growth era, and yet continue to claim that strong demand is what is causing the surging price. If we do still see very strong demand than maybe the global economy isn't as bad as most think.

I am no technical analyst, but the way crude has been trading sure has the makings of a bubble ready to pop. It's one thing to slowly and steadily increase in price, like we have seen for the last 5-6 years. It's quite another to see it move straight up in a vertical line, like we have seen of late.

Investors beware. This sure seems like another example of "irrational exuberance."

Aaron Katsman is the lead Portfolio Manager and Managing Director of America Israel Investment Associates, LLC. and Senior Editor of IsraelNewsletter.com. DISCLOSURE: Writer's fund has no position in any stock mentioned, as of 6/29/08.

Former U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan believes financial market turmoil that disrupted the bond market and created liquidity concerns may extend into 2009, Bloomberg News reported Tuesday.

However, Greenspan said the Fed's efforts in March to revive credit have reduced instability. "Things do at this particular stage look a little bit better," Greenspan told Bloomberg News via a conference call, but added that financial doldrums are likely to linger a "good number of months or into next year."

Further, when asked if the U.S. economy was in a recession, Greenspan said, "We are on the brink," Reuters reported Tuesday.

Greenspan's remarks occur one day before the now Ben Bernanke-led Fed announces it interest rate decision, on Wednesday at 2:15 p.m. EDT. The Fed is widely expected to keep interest rates the same, while in its accompanying statement also striking a balance between concern over rising inflation and a pronounced economic stall.

Ever wonder why conventional wisdom is so conventional? It's because it's the same people repeating it over and over.

The reason why this happens is mostly laziness. Reporters and TV producers call on the same people to render their opinions because they are the ones who return calls and show up when they are needed. I have done it myself so I know the drill well. Yes, Woody Allen's claim that 80% of success is showing up continues to be proven right. These people can be summed up in several categories: wisemen -- they almost always are male -- whose every utterance is treated as if it was etched in stone tablets by the almighty, and insta-pundits -- who are able to give quotes on every topic imaginable. Finally, there are the personal finance gurus whose message is that by helping me make money, I can help you save money.

Below are my choices for the most overexposed business pundits and media personalities. They are in no particular order.

Wisemen: Alan Greenspan -- Don't you miss the days when no one understood what the former Fed Chairman was talking about? Now, his message is pretty clear: buy my book and the subprime mortgage crisis was not my fault. Honorable mentions: former General Electric Co. (NYSE: GE) Chief Executive Jack Welch, billionaire George Soros, and oilman Boone Pickens.

Alan Greenspan gives an interview about every two weeks, and headlines appear saying what he thinks the odds are of a recession in the US. His most recent opinion, as he makes his book tours and speaking engagements, is that America is facing a downturn, but it will not be as bad as it could have been.

According to the FT, The former chairman of the Federal Reserve said: "I still believe there is a greater than 50 per cent probability of recession." He believes that housing holds the key to how bad things will get.

Greenspan joins Warren Buffett and George Soros as the famous financiers who enjoying visiting regularly with the press about the economy. None of them need the exposure to make money, so being in the paper must just make them feel important.

At least Greenspan's view of how things are going is not as dark as those of his peers.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

Alan Greenspan now says that the U.S. could face a mild recession. Mild? He may be blinded by all the millions of dollars he is earning on his new book. Reuters quotes him as saying, "When home prices stabilize that would mark the end of the credit crisis." Greenspan seems to think housing prices could stabilize before 2009.

He has obviously not bought or sold a home recently. Data from the real estate industry show that prices are still dropping in most cities and states. The housing downturn may be prolonged by the fact that each foreclosure tends to drive down the value of homes near the house being auctioned by the bank. No wonder, since these properties often go for cents on a dollar.

Many industry experts expect that as more subprime ARMs reset this summer default rates will actually go higher. Although the Administration and Congress have talked about a comprehensive national plan to help homeowners, the only legislation is too narrow to stanch most problems for people who cannot make house payments.

Perhaps the largest issue of all is that most homeowners cannot get refinancing or new mortgages. Banks are taking in cheap money from the Fed, but are using it to improve balance sheets instead of passing it on to consumers in the form of lower interest rates.

Greenspan may be rich, but he is also crazy.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com and the author of the Ten Stocks Under $10 newsletter.

Those familiar with former U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan's observations about macroeconomics, in general, and the U.S. economy, in specific, will remember his comments regarding "irrational exuberance" -- imprudent buying of stocks; and "the conundrum" -- the tendency for long-term interest rates to remain low, despite Fed increases in short-term interest rates.

Enter a third: the "pale recession."

Greenspan Monday said the U.S. economy has slipped into an "awfully pale recession" and may continue to experience doldrums for the rest of 2008, Bloomberg News reported Monday.

Further, regarding the economy, Greenspan added that "we are clearly receding" and said it was too soon to declare an end to the credit crisis created by the collapse of the subprime mortgage market and housing sector correction, Bloomberg News reported. Greenspan declined to comment on monetary policy.

Alan Greenspan is like a child on a long ride who keeps asking "are we there yet?". According to the former Fed chief, the US is finally in an "awfully pale recession" writes Reuters.

For some time, Greenspan said the odds of a recession where less than 50/50 He finally made it to the point where he was willing to say the chances for the economy dodging a slowdown were less likely. Now he calls the recession one which is mild and may last the year.

Greenspan has been, for some odd reason, behind the curve in terms of his thinking about how bad off the US economy is. Fellow pundit Warren Buffett called a recession some time ago. Most economists have said the GDP faces negative growth.

Greenspan's views may have something to do with keeping his name in the press and his speaking deals coming. By being just outside the major wisdom on the current economic situation he can be viewed as an alternative to the conventional wisdom. Being a little bit wrong can be good for Greenspan's book sales and business. Taking the same view as everyone else gets him lost in the shuffle.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com and author of the Ten Stocks Under $10 newsletter.

Last year I wrote a very positive Chasing Value article suggesting that USG Corp (NYSE: USG) looked like a value proposition when it was trading around $52 a share. We bought it and to say we were way too early would be very very kind because it dropped with the market in the summer and has only recovered slightly.

Even worse, Alan Greenspan and Ben Bernanke are finally talking about a recession and USG is still laying off more workers, attempting to balance labor and product demand in a weak housing market and soft economy.

Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.A) is still the largest shareholder, owning over 17% of the outstanding shares. Most of what I liked last year holds true but the depth of the economic downturn shows little signs of improvement. Housing and most related construction service industries are just trying to survive. They have all cut back production.

There is little consensus when the economy might start to show significant signs of improvement, but there are few people who think it will be soon, and I have spoken with many in the business community who think it will be 18 months at least. However, timing the market is always difficult so I believe that the best you can do is try and buy solid companies on the cheap. The difficulties that USG is weathering now will turn into strengths in the future as it streamlines the enterprise, reduces debt, and plans for the future.

Recently, former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan announced that the country is currently in a recession and that "the U.S. economy will not stabilize until the housing markets recover." He compared this to the Savings and Loan crisis of the late 1980s and mentioned that another organization similar to the Resolution Trust Corporation (RTC) may be necessary to resolve the situation.

I have repeatedly highlighted the parallels between the late 1980s and our current crisis. Part of the solution may clearly involve an organization similar to the RTC. This has generated debate over the role of government in resolving the crisis and who should ultimately bear the cost. Nevertheless, based upon comparing this to the S&L crisis of the late 1980s, there is decent evidence that this crisis will not be resolved until the housing crisis abates.

We may want to examine the differing ways that the Japanese Banking Crisis and the Swedish Banking Insolvency of the 1990s were resolved for guidelines. Under the Japanese scenario, the banks were given a lifeline and hesitated to write down the bad loans. This resulted in one of the longest economic slumps and bear markets in recent history. Only now is Japan starting to emerge from this downturn, almost 20 years after it began.

The Wall Street Journal is trying to gin up some pity for Alan Greenspan. Apparently his feelings are hurt because people are blaming him for the current economic mess. They criticize him for keeping interest rates at 1% for too long, praising adjustable rate mortgages, and maintaining lax regulatory oversight. But the Journal missed the two key flaws in Greenspan's record -- his love of securitization and his critical support of Bush's $1.3 trillion worth of tax cuts.

Meanwhile Greenspan is raking in enormous bucks. The Journal reports: "His memoir has sold about a million copies. He collects six-figure fees to answer questions for audiences, typically assemblies of financial professionals. He has signed consulting contracts with three firms, including Germany's biggest bank, Deutsche Bank AG; the world's biggest bond-fund manager, Pacific Investment Management Co.; and Paulson & Co., a hedge fund that made billions betting against housing."

In a 2002 speech referring to credit derivatives, he said financial instruments such as credit default swaps, collateralized debt obligations (CDOs) and credit-linked notes have also helped make the economy shock-resistant. "Such instruments appear to have effectively spread losses from defaults by Enron, Global Crossing, Railtrack, WorldCom and Swissair in recent months from financial institutions with large short-term leverage to insurance firms, pension funds, or others with diffuse long-term liabilities or no liabilities at all,"

MAJOR PAPERS:

• General Motors Corporation (NYSE: GM) and Ford Motor Company (NYSE: F) want to export more of their vehicles around the globe, and are getting a lift from new labor contracts and the weak dollar, which they believe will translate to bigger profits, the Wall Street Journal reported.
• The Wall Street Journal also reported that former Fed chairman Alan Greenspan has been criticized for how he handled the economy before retiring two years ago, and is under attack for policies that many say started the current financial crisis.

OTHER PAPERS:

• According to a person with knowledge of the matter, the Seattle Post-Intelligencer reported that The Boeing Company (NYSE: BA) is likely to announce a new delay of at least six more month for the 787 Dreamliner this week.

WEB SITES:

• According to 'numerous sources,' Housing Wire reported that Washington Mutual Incorporated (NYSE: WM) may have decided to exit wholesale mortgage origination.

Alan Greenspan has been traveling overseas too much promoting his book. Today he said there is over a 50% chance of a recession in the U.S. According to Reuters, the former Fed chairman said "I would not describe the situation we are in as a recession, although the chances that we'll have one are more than 50 percent."

If Mr. Greenspan was in the U.S. more often he might notice that many people can no longer afford both gas and food due to inflation in commodities prices. That alone has curtailed spending among many members of the lower and middle classes.

The drop-off in retail sales devils major retailers. Three U.S. airlines have already filed Chapter 11, and that number may well rise. Auto sales were off over 14% at both of the larger American car companies.

Many stocks in major U.S. firms are near 52-week lows and non-farm payrolls dropped sharply according to the most recent report. Financial institutions have cut tens of thousands of jobs, and that may get worse.

Otherwise, everything is fine.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

Seeking to change the subject from her foreign policy exaggerations, Sen. Hillary Clinton turned her attention to domestic matters, proposing a $30 billion plan to help state and local governments reduce the number of foreclosures.

Moreover, she proposed creating a "high-level emergency working group" comprised of former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan "father of the mortgage crisis" Greenspan, former Treasury Secretary Robert E. Rubin and reported Barack Obama supporter/ former Fed Chairman Paul Volcker. The New York senator thinks the world needs another government study whose recommendations will be ignored.

"As much as she focused on ways to ease the mortgage crisis, Senator Clinton also dwelled on what she called 'a crisis of confidence in our country,' and portrayed herself as the candidate best able to address the economic problems of middle-income and economically struggling families," according to The New York Times.

Voters, though, are showing a lack of confidence in her. Odds of her winning are slim and none, according to Politico and other political media. That being said, the housing crisis and high oil prices will be the top issues in the campaign. Expect a billion or so commercials on the topics between now and November.

Freelance writer Jonathan Berr edits the blog Ketchup and Eggs.

Alan Greenspan may appear to have a gift for the obvious. He says that a recovery in the housing market is necessary for a recovery of global credit markets. Since subprime and other mortgage instruments have pulled down earnings at a number of huge banks and brokerages, that would not seem to be any news.

"The sooner we can get home prices in the United States stabilized, the sooner we will resolve all questions," Greenspan said, according to Reuters.

Greenspan may be wrong. If banks can wash mortgage problems through their balance sheets by aggressive write-downs, they may be able to build a firewall against rising default rates. The federal government may also step in through the FHA to help refinance or "guarantee" a number of home loans.

The comments also neglect to acknowledge that most large companies have record sums of cash on their balance sheets, by one measure over $600 billion at the firms in the S&P Industrial Index. Earnings at many companies may drop but their core finances probably will not be threatened.

Housing may be important, but it is only one leg on the stool. The government's biggest job now is to make sure that all the other legs are healthy.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

Robert J. Shiller's Irrational Exuberance is the classic book for understanding the stock market bubble of the late 1990s and early 2000s. His contribution to the study of real estate is equally compelling. The House Price Index used to track our real estate market was co-developed by Mr. Shiller -- and is innovative in that it adjusts for the quality of homes involved in transactions.

So given his expertise in bubbles and real estate, he is probably the guy to listen to when it comes to the topic of the real estate bubble.

In a column in this Sunday's New York Times, Shiller gives an interesting possible explanation for a question that hasn't gotten a lot of attention: Why were Alan Greenspan -- and a lot of other presumably intelligent people -- unable to see that real estate bubble for what it was given that, in retrospect, it seems so obvious?

The answer may lie in a psychological phenomenon known as information cascade. Be sure to read Shiller's column for an explanation of how this may have applied to the real estate market. It's fascinating stuff.

And understanding why the bubble wasn't widely detectable is key to understanding why it happened. As Shiller writes, "The failure to recognize the housing bubble is the core reason for the collapsing house of cards we are seeing in financial markets in the United States and around the world. If people do not see any risk, and see only the prospect of outsized investment returns, they will pursue those returns with disregard for the risks."