Analyst upgrades:

• Oppenheimer upgraded Gymboree (NASDAQ: GYMB) to Outperform from Perform following the company's Q2 results to reflect valuation and square footage growth from Crazy 8. The firm has a $52 target on the stock.
• KeyBanc upgraded Lululemon (NASDAQ: LULU) to Buy from Hold on expectations sales and margins will improve in the near-term due to clean inventory levels. The firm recommends a pair trade of long Lululemon, short Under Armour (NYSE: UA).
• Keefe Bruyette upgraded Allied Capital (NYSE: ALD) to Market Perform from Underperform following the company's Q2 results and raised its target on shares to $3.50 from $1.
• Jack in the Box (NASDAQ: JACK) was upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JPMorgan.
• LogMeln (NASDAQ: LOGM) was upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at Piper Jaffray.
• Barclays (NYSE: BCS) was reinstated with an Outperform from Neutral at Credit Suisse.

Analyst upgrades:

• Jefferies upgraded MSC Industrial (NYSE:MSM) to Buy from Hold after meeting with management as they believe shares are attractive at current levels. The firm raised their target price to $44 from $32.
  
• UBS upgraded DuPont Fabros (NYSE:DFT) to Buy from Neutral and raised their target to $7 from $2. The firm believes DuPont Fabros will receive a waiver on its CH1 Construction loan for at least a year.
  
• Royal Bank of Scotland upgraded Credit Suisse (NYSE:CS) to Buy from Hold to reflect the company's derisking of its trading book.
• Smith & Nephew (NYSE:SNN) was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman and added to the Conviction Buy List; Cigna (NYSE:CI) was also added to the Conviction Buy List.
  
• Affymetrix (NASDAQ:AFFX) was raised to Equal Weight from Underweight at Morgan Stanley.
  
• Airtran Holdings (NYSE:AAI) was upgraded to Buy from Hold at Jesup & Lamont.

Shares of Allied Capital (NYSE: ALD) tanked today after the company announced that it might default on its revolving credit facility and its private notes. The company is in discussions with its creditors about possible amendments, but said that a default could have a material impact on its operations and prevent the company from paying its historically high dividends.

What makes watching the demise of Allied Capital so interesting is that the company's flawed business model was exposed in obsessive detail in a book by hedge fund manager David Einhorn.

In spite of the overwhelming evidence that Einhorn compiled, his criticisms were mostly dismissed by Wall Street analysts and regulators -- to the detriment of the company's investors.

Most followers of Allied Capital dismissed Einhorn as a disgruntled short seller with an agenda: If Allied Capital shares went down, he stood to make a lot of money. But the bottom line was that the evidence Einhorn presented mostly spoke for itself, and investors were only cheating themselves by dismissing him as a shortseller.

Analyst upgrades:

• Barclays upgraded the Integrated Oil sector to Positive from Neutral citing valuations. Note that Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM) was upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight based on valuation.
  
• After Force Protection (NASDAQ: FRPT) reported that its 1H08 sales increased more than 200%, Stanford thinks that Force Protection could be poised for several new opportunities in 2009 and they believe the company's risk is already priced into the stock; the firm raised Force Protection to Hold from Sell.
  
• Cowen expects eHealth (NASDAQ: EHTH) to benefit from the steady decline in employer-sponsored health insurance offered by small businesses and reduced regulatory risk, among other reasons. The firm upgraded shares to Outperform from Neutral.
• Allied Capital (NYSE: ALD) was upgraded to Market Perform from Underperform at BMO Capital.
  
• Caris upgraded Carmike Cinemas (NASDAQ: CKEC) to Above Average from Average.
  
• International Flavors & Fragrances (NYSE: IFF) was upgraded to Neutral from Underweight at JP Morgan.

Problems at Allied Capital (NYSE: ALD) -- the target of short seller David Einhorn's book Fooling Some of the People All of the Time -- continued yesterday with the announcement that one of its portfolio companies, Ciena Capital LLC had filed for chapter 11 bankruptcy protection.

Ciena's predecessor company -- Business Loan Express -- is under fire from federal prosecutors who allege that the company participated in deals designed to defraud the United States government.

What's so interesting about this mess is that a) If you read Einhorn's book, he pointed out serious problems at Business Loan Express far before Ciena was admitting to them, and b) The SEC appears to have completely dropped the ball on this case, resulting in substantial losses to investors.

It's also interesting to note that Overstock (NASDAQ: OSTK) CEO Patrick Byrne's self-proclaimed investigative journalism site DeepCapture, which serves mainly to attack anyone who criticizes Byrne's company or his ideas, has been rallying to Allied's defense in recent months. One of the site's reporters, Mark Mitchell described (PDF) Allied, Overstock, and Novastar Financial as "victims" of a supposed conspiracy of hedge funds and corrupt reporters hell bent on destroying them.

With the Allied mess unfolding much as Einhorn predicted and Novastar on the brink of bankruptcy in the wake of numerous investigations and revelations of shoddy lending practices, it's bad news for Dr. Byrne if Overstock is to be judged by the company it keeps.

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Telefonica, Affymax and Hatteras Financial were today's noteworthy initiations:

• Deutsche Bank initiated Telefonica (NYSE: TEF) with a Buy rating and believes concerns of an economic slowdown in Spain are overdone and that company is on track to make 2008 guidance.
  
• Baird assumed coverage of Affymax (NADAQ: AFFY) with an Outperform rating and $25 target. The firm believes the market has discounted the regulatory and commercial prospects of lead compound Hematide, which they believe is a $800M revenue opportunity, and recommends buying shares aggressively in the mid-$20s.
  
• Shares of Hatteras Financial (NYSE: HTS) were started with an Outperform rating and $35 target at Friedman Billings. The firm believes management has the opportunity to stabilize its agency portfolio and generate a return on invested capital of about 20%.

OTHER INITIATIONS:

• Caris assumed OmniVision (NASDAQ: OVTI) with a Buy rating and $15 target.
  
• Pioneer Natural (NYSE: PXD) was initiated at UBS with a Buy rating and $110 target.
  
• UBS also initiated CME Group (NYSE: CME) with a Neutral rating and $430 target.
  
• Allied Capital (NYSE: ALD) was assumed with a Buy rating and $14.40 target at Merrill Lynch.

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says both oil futures and equity futures can move these hot issues.

Will the futures pull down the oil and gas stocks today? No, I don't mean the oil futures, I mean the equity futur

Last week when oil exploded, we caught two days of trading that dropped the stocks hard. We caught a bit of a bid in the nat gases like Chesapeake (NYSE:CHK) and Devon (NYSE:DVN) but at the end of the day, but the stocks were truly overwhelmed by the simple fact that they are in the indices.

This pattern has really held down the integrateds: last week Conoco (NYSE:COP) should have exploded, but it couldn't because it is such a big part of the S&P. Chevron (NYSE:CVX) and Exxon (NYSE: XOM) are no different.

The natural gas stocks are not as big a factor, but they can be rocked down without a problem.

I am not saying to avoid looking at the oil futures. They can control the stocks. I am saying that the equity futures tide can take down anything, even when the oil futures spike hard.

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Allied Capital, ZIX Corp and Staples were today's noteworthy initiations:

• Oppenheimer believes Allied Capital's (NYSE:ALD) dividend is sustainable and that the equity portion of its portfolio will drive outsized returns once market conditions return to normalcy. Shares were initiated with a Perform rating.
  
• ThinkPanmure believes ZIX Corp (NASDAQ:ZIXI) has a large opportunity in e-prescribing encryption market, with a potential catalyst being the E-MEDS bill. The firm started shares with a Buy rating and $4.50 target.
  
• Banc of America reinstated its Buy rating on Staples (NASDAQ:SPLS) following the Corporate Express (NYSE:CXP) deal, which it views as a positive catalyst for the stock. The firm has a $29 target on the stock.

OTHER INITIATIONS:

• Newmont Mining (NYSE:NEM) was initiated at Thomas Weisel with an Overweight rating and $62 target.
  
• Stephens assumed Wabash (NYSE:WNC) with an Equal Weight rating and $10 target.
  
• Compass Diversified Trust (NASDAQ:CODI) was initiated with a Sector Perform rating and $14 target at RBC Capital.

A DealBook piece looks at David Einhorn's very public battles with Allied Capital (NYSE: ALD) and Lehman Bros. (NYSE: LEH), both of which he is short and accused of accounting chicanery. Einhorn's willingness to "talk his book" has generated controversy. Steven Davidoff writes that "Many short plays are enhanced through rumor and innuendo spread by those self-same shorts. Needless to say, these whispers are sometimes unfounded but can do real harm to a company's share price and the company itself."

In his email newsletter, fund manager Whitney Tilson slams this comment: "Hmmm... How many is "many"? More than one? A majority? 99% of the rumor and innuendo in the market I see is on the long side! The shorts I know, on the other hand, perhaps because they're often falsely accused of spreading "rumor and innuendo", bend over backwards to be open and factual."

This is exactly the point. What is the ratio of "pumps" to "bashes"? When Einhorn goes on CNBC and trashes a stock, it's a national story. That's because it's incredibly rare for anyone to go on CNBC and slam a company. The extent of the skepticism we usually hear in the financial media is "overvalued" or "tough prospects."

So I say to Einhorn and Co.: Keep doing what you're doing. Differing opinions, and especially unpopular ones, make for a better market.

David Einhorn has one of the better money management track records of anyone in the business and has also made headlines with his efforts to expose alleged fraud at Allied Capital (NYSE: ALD). If you haven't read his book on that company, it's probably the best investment title of the year.

Einhorn recently sat down for an interview with TheStreet.com (you can watch it below). He's long Target (NYSE: TGT) and Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) but is still short some of the badly beaten down financial stocks and credit rating agencies. He's bearish on stocks that are trading at high multiples in anticipation of a second-half recovery, something he is "not so sure about."

Of the 50+ business-related books I read each year, maybe 15 were worth reading, in retrospect. Then another five of those are memorable -- in a good year. Hedge fund manager David Einhorn's book Fooling Some of the People All of the Time leapfrogs both of those categories, and establishes itself as a classic of business writing.

The story behind the book is intriguing. It's actually amazing that it ever got published, and tremendous credit should be given to Wiley for taking a chance with such an unconventional tale. Here's the deal: In a 2002 speech at a charity event, Greenlight Capital hedge fund manager David Einhorn gave a speech at a charity event. Asked to talk about his favorite investment idea, he spent 15 minutes explaining why he believe that Allied Capital (NASDAQ: ALD) was a financial crime in progress, ripping off investors and taxpayers as a Small Business Administration lender. Einhorn presented compelling evidence of aggressive accounting and indeed fraud, and disclosed that he was short the stock.

The speech made headlines and the stock tanked. Over the past six years, Einhorn has continued to beat the drum against Allied Capital, presenting information to regulators, reporters, and investors.

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Equitable Resources, Allied Capital and Apria Healthcare were today's noteworthy initiations:

• RBC Capital is positive on Equitable Resources' (NYSE:EQT) Appalachian Basin exposure and valuation. Shares were started with an Outperform rating and $78 target.
  
• Morgan Keegan views Allied Capital's (NYSE:ALD) valuation and outlook as attractive, starting shares with an Outperform rating.
  Credit Suisse assumed Apria Healthcare (NYSE:AHG) with a Neutral rating and $20 target, citing the challenging Medicare backdrop.

OTHER INITIATIONS:

• Keefe Bruyette initiated Zions Bancorp (NASDAQ:ZION) with a Market Perform rating and $47 target.
  
• Thomson Reuters (NASDAQ:TRIN) was started with a Sell rating at ABN Amro.
  
• Canaccord Adams initiated Cyberonics (NASDAQ:CYBX) with a Buy rating and $20.50 target.

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Nvidia, Entropic Comm and Cleveland Cliffs were today's noteworthy initiations:

• Piper initiated Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) with a Neutral rating and $23 target and believes the rate at which the company gained market share over the past two years is unsustainable. The firm expects EPS deceleration over the next few years.
  
• Piper believes Entropic Comm (NASDAQ: ENTR) is a key benefactor from the general adoption of high definition video consumer goods, as well as from growth in multi-room DVRs. The firm assumed shares with a Buy rating and $10 target.
  
• Cleveland Cliffs (NYSE: CLF) was started with a Buy rating and $135 target at Deutsche Bank. The firm believes CLF is a leveraged play on bulk commodities' momentum.

OTHER INITIATIONS:

• Merrill initiated Allied Capital (NYSE: ALD) with a Neutral rating.
  
• Stifel initiated Blue Nile (NASDAQ: NILE) with a Buy rating and $54 target, and initiated Bank of Florida (NASDAQ: BOFL) with a Buy rating.

Allied Capital (NYSE: ALD), a business development company engaged in the private equity business, closed at $19.99, a five-year low.

ALD February call option implied volatility is at 58 and puts are at 63, above its 26-week avearge of 29 according to Track Data, suggesting larger risks.

Teva Pharmaceutical (NASDAQ: TEVA), a generic pharmaceutical company, is recently down $1.65 to $48 in pre-open trading.

TEVA announced that George S. Barrett, CEO of TEVA North America, has resigned.

TEVA overall option implied volatility of 25 is near its 26-week average according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional risk.

Options Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com