Analyst Upgrades

• Akamai (AKAM) to overweight from neutral at Piper Jaffray.
• Las Vegas Sands (LVS) to buy from neutral at UBS.
• Aetna (AET) to Outperform from market perform at Leerink.
• Hot Topic (HOTT) to buy from neutral at Janney Capital.
• Colonial Properties (CLP) upgraded to Outperform from market perform at FBR Capital and to buy from hold at Citigroup.
• Altera (ALTR) to buy from hold at Citigroup.
• American Reprographics (ARC), CarMax (KMX) and American Campus (ACC) to outperform from neutral at RW Baird.
• Zebra Tech (ZBRA) to neutral from underweight at JPMorgan.
• IMAX (IMAX) to buy from hold at Canaccord.
• Basic Energy (BAS) to neutral from sell at Goldman.
• Mednax (MD) to buy from neutral at BofA/Merrill.
• UTi Worldwide (UTIW) to buy from hold at Stifel Nicolaus.

This post is part of Japan: A Special Report for Investors.

"Japan's tsunami has struck worldwide," says Richard Moroney, the editor of Dow Theory Forecasts, which has maintained a model portfolio of blue chip stocks for over 50 years.

Here, he reviews a number of the top buy recommendations in the newsletter's portfolios to determine the potential risk posed by the recent tragic developments in Japan.

Stocks cited as "Focus List Buys" are are those issues that the service expect to significantly outperform the market over the next 12 months.

Analyst Upgrades

• Intel (INTC), ON Semiconductor (ONNN), Lattice Semiconductor (LSCC), Fairchild Semiconductor (FSC), STMicroelectronics (STM) and Altera (ALTR) to outperform from neutral at RW Baird.
• Capital One (COF) to overweight from equal weight at Morgan Stanley.
• Dollar Tree (DLTR) to buy from neutral at Goldman.
• Foot Locker (FL) to buy from neutral at Sterne Agee.
• Progressive (PGR) to buy from neutral at BofA/Merrill.
• Flow International (FLOW) to buy from neutral at Roth Capital.
• Signature Bank (SBNY) to buy from hold at Jefferies.
• HiSoft Technology (HSFT) to buy from neutral at UBS.

"Buoyed by strong operating momentum, the technology sector earns high marks in our Quadrix® stock- rating system," says Richard Moroney.

The editor of Dow Theory Forecasts explains, "Our favorite picks in the tech sector -Altera (ALTR), Apple (AAPL), IBM (IBM) and Texas Instruments (TXN) - share some favorable qualities.

➤ December-quarter results: All four topped consensus estimates, producing double-digit growth in per- share profits. Revenue also exceeded expectations.

Analyst Upgrades

• FedEx (FDX) and Concur Tech (CNQR) to outperform from neutral at RW Baird.
• Hershey (HSY) to outperform from neutral at Credit Suisse.
• Open Text (OTEX) to outperform from sector perform at RBC Capital.
• Bemis (BMS) and Hudson Pacific (HPP) upgraded to buy from hold at KeyBanc.
• InterActiveCorp (IACI) to buy from neutral at BofA/Merrill.
• KB Home (KBH) to neutral from sell at Goldman.
• News Corp. (NWSA) to neutral from underperform at Cowen.

Analyst Upgrades

• Micron (MU) to buy from neutral at UBS.
• Baker Hughes (BHI) to outperform from market perform at BMO Capital.
• PDL BioPharma (PDLI) to outperform from sector perform at RBC Capital.
• Fluor (FLR) and Rush Enterprises (RUSHA) to buy from neutral at BofA/Merrill.
• Camden Property (CPT) to outperform from neutral at Macquarie.
• Pinnacle Financial (PNFP) to buy from hold at Wunderlich.
• Linear Technology (LLTC) to neutral from reduce at Nomura.
• Hologic (HOLX) and Illumina (ILMN) to buy from hold at Citigroup.
• F5 Networks (FFIV) to buy from neutral at Gleacher.

Analyst Upgrades

• Red Hat (RHT) and American Public (APEI) to outperform from sector perform at RBC Capital.
• KBR (KBR) and Foster Wheeler (FWLT) to buy from neutral at Goldman.
• Bio-Rad (BIO) to outperform from market perform at Leerink.
• Oceaneering (OII) to outperform from neutral at Credit Suisse.
• ASM International (ASMI) and Avid Technology (AVID) to overweight from neutral at JPMorgan.
• Dominion Resources (D) to equal weight from underweight at Morgan Stanley.
• Nationwide Health Properties (NHP) to buy from hold at Jefferies.
• Vivus (VVUS) to buy from underperform at BofA/Merrill.
• Intersil (ISIL) to buy from hold at Canaccord.

Analyst Upgrades

• Goldman upgraded Citigroup (C) to conviction buy from buy, Principal Financial (PFG) to buy from neutral, and Stancorp Financial (SFG) and Hartford Financial (HIG) to neutral from sell.
• JetBlue (JBLU) was upgraded to overweight from neutral at JPMorgan.
• Barclays upgraded Royal Caribbean (RCL) and Carnival (CCL) upgraded to overweight from equal weight.
• Hollysys Automation (HOLI) was upgraded to buy from hold at Roth Capital.
• RBC Capital upgraded Alliance Data Systems (ADS) to outperform from sector perform.
• RRI Energy (RRI) was upgraded to buy from hold at Citigroup.

Analyst Upgrades

• Wells Fargo upgraded PG&E (PCG) to outperform from market perform and raised its range for shares to $50 to $52 from $44 to $46, citing the proposed settlement in the company's 2011 General Rate Case.
• Jefferies upgraded Huntsman (HUN) to buy from hold and raised its price target for shares to $17 from $12, citing valuation and the likelihood for favorable earnings revisions.
• RBC Capital upgraded Jack in the Box (JACK) to outperform from sector perform with a $28 target, citing checks showing improved fast food sales in recent months and easy comps.
• Sonic (SONC) was upgraded to outperform from sector perform at RBC Capital and $12 price target.
• Synaptics (SYNA) was upgraded to overweight from neutral at JPMorgan and $40 price target.
• Excel Maritime (EXM) was upgraded to buy from hold at Cantor and raised its price target to $7 from $5.

The Federal Reserve's next Beige Book report is scheduled to be released this week. This report is a compilation of anecdotal information on current economic conditions from each of the 12 Federal Reserve Bank districts, and it is released eight times a year. The data comes from interviews with business contacts, economists, market experts, and other sources. The June report is expected to show strengthening signs of expansion, though results could be mixed across the 12 districts.

Economic data due out this week include:

Analyst upgrades:

• Pali Capital upgraded Lazard (LAZ) to buy from neutral, citing a healthy restructuring environment, improving M&A and strength in the asset management segment. The firm has a $46 target on shares.
• Baird upgraded Scansource (SCSC) to outperform from neutral, citing strength in the channel business and growth drivers from improved telephony and security. The firm has a $30 target on shares.
• Citigroup upgraded Liberty Interactive (LINTA) to buy from hold, citing the company's QVC unit's return to growth. The firm raised its target on shares to $13.25 from $12.
• Hess Corp (HES) was upgraded to overweight from equal weight at Morgan Stanley.
• Vulcan Materials (VMC) was upgraded to buy from neutral at UBS.
• Dillard's (DDS) was upgraded to buy from hold at Deutsche Bank.

In addition to Intel Corp.'s (NASDAQ: INTC) third quarter earnings release, chip makers Altera Corp. (NASDAQ: ALTR) and Linear Technology Corp. (NASDAQ: LLTC) are expected to post results Tuesday after the market closes as well. (Also see our Intel earnings preview.)

For the three months that ended in September, analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters expect Altera to report that its net income fell 38.7% from a year ago to $0.19 per share. Revenue for the period is expected to be 20.6% lower to $283.3 million, which is in line with recently raised guidance. Altera has met or topped earnings estimates in the past five quarters, beating by as much as a nickel per share. The long-term EPS growth forecast is 14.4%, which is better than that of competitors Intel and Texas Instruments Corp. (NYSE: TXN).

• McAdams Wright expects Dendreon's (NASDAQ: DNDN) near-term momentum to continue but has long-term concerns that Street estimates are too high. The firm upgraded shares to Hold from Sell.
• JPMorgan upgraded Ameristar Casinos (NASDAQ: ASCA) to Overweight from Neutral to reflect valuation, potential catalysts from Colorado's easing gaming regulations, and the company's strong free cash flow. The firm raised its target on shares to $24 from $20.
• Citigroup upgraded Valspar (NYSE: VAL) to Hold from Sell after channel checks indicated paint demand is shifting to big-box retailers, the company's primary sales channel. The firm raised its target on shares to $22 from $19.
• Vulcan Materials (NYSE: VMC) was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS.
• Altera (NASDAQ: ALTR) was raised to Outperform from Sector Perform at RBC Capital.
• Spectra Energy (NYSE: SEP) was upgraded to Neutral from Sell at Goldman.

Xilinx (NASDAQ: XLNX), a tech entity involved in programmable logic and a colleague of companies like Actel (NASDAQ: ACTL) and Altera (NASDAQ: ALTR), issued a business update on Tuesday. Believe it or not, it contained some good news. How about that for a change? I'm sure shareholders were pleased.

According to this news item, Xilinx believes that its revenue picture should be better than previously thought. Sales should drop by somewhere between 13% and 18% for the March quarter on a sequential basis. Management had originally believed that they'd have to report a sequential revenue drop between 15% and 25%. So, yes, there will still be a decline, but hey, if it's less than expected, you gotta take that. It's too bad, though, that the gross margin range wasn't raised. It should still fall between 61% and 63%. If management had raised that as well, then I bet the stock would have closed even higher on the news. It rose almost 4% on better-than-average volume yesterday.