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Three humbly-suggested stock picks for 2007

Last year the stocks mentioned in my newsletter, The Cohan Letter, were up 15%, 1% better than my benchmark, the S&P 500. But it was a humbling year, so I offer three stock picks for 2007 with a suggestion that you study them carefully.

2006 was humbling because my picks (I focus on three stocks in each monthly edition) trailed the market throughout much of the year. However, they ended up prevailing due to a late December surge in some of the top performing stocks -- e.g., Telefonos de Mexico, S.A. (ADR) (NYSE: TMX) was up 36% from $20.83 when I first mentioned it to $28.26 and Wal-Mart de Mexico (ADR) (OTC: WMMVY) rose 28% from $34.25 (I blogged about it here) to $43.85. This was due to portfolio managers' practice of window dressing -- buying stocks that have done well right at the end of the year so they can report to their shareholders that they owned the stocks.

Since 1998, when public sources began tracking my stock picks, I've been fortunate to have outperformed the S&P 500 in all but one year (in 2003, my stock picks were up 23% compared to 29% for the S&P 500). Since 1998, my stock picks have averaged a 67% annual return compared to a 6% return for the S&P 500. However, 2006 was by far the worst year for my stock picks -- the second worst was 2004 when my picks were up 20% compared to 9% for the S&P 500.

One of the key reasons for these results is limiting losses through a 2% stop loss on stocks mentioned in The Cohan Letter -- if a stock's price falls 2% below the level at which it was noted, the stock is sold. To put the importance of this rule into context, I used it to dump 61% of the 36 stocks highlighted in 2006. Without it, my stock picks would have lost money for investors.

So it is with a serious helping of humble pie that I offer these three stocks to consider for 2007:

Continue reading Three humbly-suggested stock picks for 2007

Top Picks 2007: Bet along with billionaire on American Movil

Each year Steven Halpern, editor of TheStockAdvisors.com, surveys the leading financial newsletter advisors asking for their favorite stocks for the coming year. This article is part of his 24th annual Top Picks Report.

America Movil (NYSE: AMX) is the top conservative idea for 2007 from Nick Vardy, editor of The Global Bull Market Alert. He notes, "Mexican billionaire Carlos Slim vies with India's Lakshi Mittal as the world's third-wealthiest man, just behind Bill Gates and Warren Buffett.

"Slim made his fortune through his Latin American telecommunications empire that includes American Movil. Spun out from Telefonos de Mexico five years ago, America Movil is Latin America's cell phone goliath with close to 110 million subscribers.

"Holding a 70% share of the Mexican market, its wireless network reaches about two-thirds of Latin America's population, and the firm continues to grow its already expansive footprint.

"Squeezed out of Venezuela by Hugo Chavez's anti-American campaign, U.S. operator Verizon is not only exiting that market, but also selling its assets in Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. But Verizon's loss is America Movil's gain.

Continue reading Top Picks 2007: Bet along with billionaire on American Movil

Hola? A trio of Latin telecoms

While domestic phone companies battle for market share, non-US firms are building dominant positions in markets considered by many to offer higher growth potential, such as Latin America. And despite their foreign operations, several of these stocks are traded through ADRs on the New York exchange.

John Christy III, editor of the Forbes International Investment Report is a fan of America Movil (NYSE: AMX), the dominant mobile phone company in Mexico, with operations in a dozen other Latin American countries. The company is controlled by billionaire Carlos Slim Helu, the world's third-richest man (following Bill Gates and Warren Buffett).

Says Christy, "American Movil has had a stellar record of growth and profitability over the past five years. With cellular penetration rates in Latin America hovering in the 40% range (versus 90%+ in Europe), there is a lot more room for growth."

The shares have risen 15% since he first added it to his portfolio two months ago, and he cautions that they might pull back. However, he says, "Use dips as an opportunity to scoop up more shares. AMX is trading at less than 15 times next year's consensus earnings forecast of $2.90. With estimated earnings growth running at a 35%+ clip, AMX still looks extremely attractive."

Continue reading Hola? A trio of Latin telecoms

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