It was only about 18 months ago, when Taylor Hicks was crowned the winner of American Idol Season 5. Fists pumping, and with "Soul Patrol!" being invoked, the gray-haired soulster prepared for a life as America's next pop superstar.

How fickle we are as a nation of fans. Reports from Entertainment Weekly now indicate that Hicks has lost his deal with J Records, a division of Sony Corporation (ADR) (NYSE: SNE) BMG founded in 2000 by pop-music Svengali Clive Davis. While the news has yet to be confirmed publicly by either camp, a label rep told EW that "Taylor is going to record his new album on his own... he is no longer on the J Records roster." Hicks' one and only release with J Records, the self-titled Taylor Hicks, has sold about 700,000 copies to date.

This story comes mere weeks after news that Ruben Studdard, winner of Idol's Season 2, was dismissed from J Records after his third label release, The Return, posted very slow sales numbers.

For those keeping score at home, that's two male winners in six seasons, both of whom are struggling for relevance. Other male runners up (most notably Chris Daughtry and Clay Aiken) have enjoyed better success than their rivals who supposedly earned more votes from Idol viewers.

In the summer of 2002, four little words -- "A Moment Like This" -- catapulted Kelly Clarkson from small-town Texas karaoke-singing waitress to the first American Idol superstar. Three years later, her second album Breakaway had five hit singles, including "Since U Been Gone," one of the top pop hits of the year. A pair of Grammy awards, multiple platinum designations, and an endorsement deal with Ford Motor Co. (NYSE: F) followed, and "Miss Independent" was on top of the world, albeit still under some creative control of 19 Entertainment and the Idol family.

In 2007, a matured Clarkson was dealing with a breakup in her personal life and a desire for a darker sound. She wrote or co-wrote every track on her third album effort, My December, which was released in late June to mixed critical reviews and sales that paled in comparison to Breakaway and her debut, Thankful. In the six months following its release, fewer than a million copies had been purchased in the U.S. Perhaps the edgier tone to the record alienated her teeny-bopper fans.

Kelly parted ways with her management company in June, with a source telling tabloid Us Weekly that there was disagreement "over the songs and the direction" of My December. Low ticket sales then prompted the cancellation of her summer arena tour.

But Kelly's still young and vibrant, with a good head on her shoulders and a great voice for pop music. She's embarking upon a tour of smaller venues earlier next year and already at work on her fourth album. I'm confident she'll be back on top again ... there will be another "moment like this" for the American Idol groundbreaker.

Beth Gaston Moon is an analyst at Schaeffer's Investment Research.

Be sure to check out other Money Losers of 2007.

Dick Clark's New Year's Rockin' Eve is a tradition for many Americans. Some tune in to catch a particular musical act; some just keep it on mute to watch the ball drop. The program has aired every December 31 since 1972 on The Walt Disney Company (NYSE: DIS)'s ABC Network and is typically a high ratings draw for the network, particularly at a time when so many regularly scheduled programs are in reruns.

Living legend Dick Clark has served as host or co-host for every broadcast with two exceptions, the most recent being 2004, as he recovered from a stroke. The last two years, Ryan Seacrest, of American Idol hosting fame, has helped man the mic in Times Square. In 2005, it was announced that Seacrest will be handed the hosting torch should the 77-year-old Clark be unable to perform his time-honored role.

But count on ringing in 2008 with the Idol emcee and the "America's Oldest Teenager." It was announced this week that the pair will again share hosting duties for the 36th edition of the broadcast. The show will run 3-1/2 hours and begin at 10 p.m. Eastern time on - when else? December 31 (it's a Monday this year).

Beth Gaston Moon is an analyst at Schaeffer's Investment Research.

According to today's U.K. Guardian, Google (NASDAQ: GOOG) has been meeting with American Idol guru Simon Fuller about partnering on an internet project that he says is a "big idea on a global scale." While no details were disclosed, Fuller compared the impact of the project to that of iTunes on the music industry.

My first thought was that Google was going into original programming, for which Fuller has been a cash machine. However, a couple of shows, even if very successful, do not the foundations of entertainment shake. Google has also crapped out on a pay-per-view models, and I'd be surprised if that resurfaced. With its purchase of YouTube, though, it owns the mother of all footprints in online video.

As a WAG, perhaps the plan might be more along these lines: A producer creates a show, partners with Google to market it for internet delivery. The show is delivered with advertising content via the Google/YouTube network. For each viewing, advertisers pay a fixed rate, and Google divvies up the ad revenue with the producer. In essence, Google replaces the television network's role, using its ubiquitousness to market content to those it identifies as the most likely to view.

Any plans coming from the Google/Simon confab need to be taken seriously. They are, after all, two American Idols.

Love him or hate him, (I'm ... ahem ... in the first camp), there's no denying that Ryan Seacrest is among the hardest working men in show business. From his exhausting gig as the face of American Idol every spring to collaborations with the E! cable channel, a weekly hosting turn of the American Top 40 countdown program, and a morning radio show in the Los Angeles market, the diminutive media linchpin is carving out his claims to be the country's next Dick Clark.

News Corp.'s (NYSE: NWS) FOX Network, which airs American Idol, announced that Seacrest will serve as host for the 59th Primetime Emmy Awards, to be aired live on Sunday, September 16. In a press release from the network, FOX's president of alternative entertainment, Mike Darnell, asserted that "Ryan Seacrest is known and loved by television audiences around the world ... he's a consummate host of major live broadcast events and a proven talent who always makes it look easy..."

Ken Ehlrich, executive producer of the Emmy broadcast this year, promises that Seacrest will help infuse this year's Emmys with a "freshness, enthusiasm and professionalism [into] some of the innovative things we have planned."
Personally, I'll be even more likely to tune into the awards show with Seacrest hosting. He's quick on his feet, sharp, and funny in a manner often stifled by his Idol gig (or so I allow myself to believe). And like it or not, Seacrest is also an indelible part of today's TV fabric.

Beth Gaston Moon is an analyst at Schaeffer's Investment Research.

As computer graphics and interfaces grow increasingly sophisticated, it's only a matter of time before the television broadcasters latch onto the concept and graft it into shows such as American Idol.

In fact, Electronic Arts (NASDAQ: ERTS) recently inked a deal with reality show developer Endemol Group (Big Brother, Fear Factor, Deal or No Deal) to create a virtual playground in which game players could take on a virtual guise and compete with others in the electronic realm. At the same time, those avatars could become contestants in broadcast shows for the entertainment of viewers.

If you think Sanjaya was an outré character, imagine how far out of orbit created personas could fly? Once loosened from their fleshy prisons and the barrier of geography, the imagination of the world would be loosened on these stages.

Imagine Dancing with the Stars, in which a contestant in Bangladesh with a Nintendo Wii strapped to her leg and a USB-ported dance pad under her feet dances the rumba with Brad Pitt. Imagine an American Idol contestant, the spitting image of Elvis Presley, trying to match his timbre on Heartbreak Hotel. Imagine the catfights and carnage among a dozen avatars forced to stay on an island together, 24/7, until only one remains.

The merger of virtual reality and televised entertainment lacks only an interface, and EA is one company jumping into the breach. Success could bring profits that are more than virtual.

Lyric Jeans, an apparel company inspired by music and lyrics (the real things, not the Hugh Grant romantic comedy) has inked a licensing agreement with FremantleMedia, co-producer and licensor of American Idol. According to the press release, the lyric-inspired clothing line will initially target juniors and girls and then expand into other departments, including children's.

The president of Lyric, available for trading only on an over-the-counter basis, noted that "American Idol is the most powerful and iconic music brand in popular culture today and the perfect tie-in for our creative concept ... we couldn't have dreamt of a better partner."

Current offerings from the company are available online, in specialty boutiques, and at Saks Fifth Avenue (NYSE: SKS). Some threads include T-shirts inspired by artists such as Janis Joplin, The Beatles, and Marvin Gaye. I'm not sure what confuses me more ... how Taylor Hicks fits into this esteemed lineup, or why these T-shirts cost $90. That Lennon/McCartney catalog ain't cheap.

Is it a sign that Idol, a ratings juggernaut for News Corp's (NYSE: NWS) Fox network for the past six seasons, has hit the peak of its success? Jumped the shark, as it were? Just ask the New Kids on the Block or the newly reunited Spice Girls -- once the merchandising reaches extreme levels, the end could be around the corner. Then again, ratings were at a record high last season despite some truly mediocre singers in the mix -- Ryan Seacrest may just have a job forever.

Beth Gaston Moon is an analyst at Schaeffer's Investment Research.

The gleam of the American Idol brand is brighter than ever after CNNMoney.com reported that billionaire and media magnate Robert F.X. Sillerman made a successful bid to take the AI franchise owner, CKX Inc (NASDAQ: CKXE) private. CKX announced Friday it accepted the offer from a group led by its current CEO, Sillerman, for $1.3 billion. Since Sillerman and other board members already owned 46% of outstanding capital stock, sale approval was a slam dunk.

The offer of $13.75 per share carried a 29% premium. However, according to the Wall Street Journal's MarketBeat, this fell well short of the $20-25 value investors placed on the stock.

Other CKX holdings include the rights to Elvis Presley, his music and his Graceland estate, as well as the rights to the name, image, and likeness of Muhammad Ali.

The company is attempting to grow its Presley line by enlisting the help of Cirque du Soleil in creating Presley-themed shows. It already has a deal with MGM Mirage to stage a permanent, live Presley show on the Strip in Las Vegas beginning in 2009. CKX also operates the Heartbreak Hotel, near Graceland, which might be a good place for the stockholders who feel the sale price was low to commiserate.

The company also plans to extend its Idol franchise worldwide. Since Simon (who needs a last name?) is contracted to the company, as well as holding a seat on the board of directors, we can safely assume his involvement won't be affected by the transition.

Dow Jones(NYSE:DJ) volatility collapses on expectations of a deal. Dow Jones is recently up $7.76 to $61.12 on speculation Rupert Murdoch's News Corp(NYSE: NWS) will raise his $60 cash bid made on 5/1/07. Dow Jones controlling shareholders, the Bancroft family, agreed to meet with Murdoch. General Electric Company (NYSE:GE)has been speculated as submitting a stock for stock bid for Dow Jones. GE's stock for stock bid could be attractive to the Bancroft family because of GE's low beta of 0.85 compared to News Corp's beta of 1.54 if Murdoch would add a stock component to his bid. Dow Jones June option implied volatility has collapsed to 45 from 70 according to Track Data, suggesting decreasing risk.

New York Times(NYSE:NYT) implied volatility suggests non-directional Risk. NYT is recently up .71 to $25.82. NYT over all option implied volatility of 24 is near its 26-week average according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional price risk.

Option volume leaders today are: Dendreon (NASDAQ-DNDN), Apple, Inc.(NASDAQ:AAPL), Dell (NASDAQ:DELL) and Cisco (NASDAQ:CSCO).

Daily Option Update is provided by Stock Options Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.

When you're the undisputed champion, people are always watching for the first hint of vulnerability. The undisputed champion is News Corp.'s (NYSE:NWS) Fox network show, American Idol, and recent Nielsen stats suggest its stranglehold on the American viewership might be loosening.

Last week, an ABC show, Grey's Anatomy, actually managed to sneak into second place for the week, behind AI Wednesday but ahead of AI Tuesday. In the role of up and coming contender for the crown, you might also look at Dancing With The Stars on the Walt Disney Co. (NYSE: DIS) network, which handily won Monday night this week. The finale, won by Apolo Ohno and Julianne Hough, drew a 10.2 rating and a 17 share.

Looking beyond the slight decline in American Idol viewership, however, I see a still-thriving franchise. Part of the decline can be attributed to shrinking television viewership, part to time-shifting via DVD recorders, and part to those who prefer to watch on-line.

American Idol continues to clobber its competitors in the market sector that really matters to advertisers, those 18-49 years of age.

On a more parochial level, stories about AI are among the most read on this blog. I can only conclude we must have a huge News Corp. stockholder following!

Last night's American Idol final made one thing clear to me -- 17-year-old Jordin Sparks should win. And if DialIdol is an accurate indicator, Sparks has the votes -- with a score of 45 to Blake Lewis's 30.

I've never heard of DialiIdol, but according to its website, DialIdol's software speed dials votes for Idol contestants. DialIdol measures the busy signal to predict who will be voted off and it claims that it was 87% accurate for American Idol's fifth season. Moreover, DialIdol claims to have accurately predicted the winner of every show it has covered.

While I enjoyed the story about how Lewis started "beatboxing" because his father wouldn't buy him a drum set, I thought Sparks demonstrated that she was the better singer. She turned the mediocre winner of the songwriting competition -- This Is My Now -- into a tear-jerker that left voters with a much better reason to vote for Sparks than did Lewis's embarrassed rendition.

So I think Sparks will win -- the big question is whether she'll have the kind of post-Idol career that Kelly Clarkson and Carrie Underwood have enjoyed -- or whether she'll fade into Taylor Hicks-like obscurity.

Tonight and tomorrow mark the culmination of 40-plus hours of prime-time broadcast, hundreds of performances, and millions of tears as American Idol crowns its sixth champion. The ratings juggernaut for News Corp's (NYSE: NWS) FOX network has three more hours of advertising revenue before it wraps for the season.

For those among us who still care (I tuned out around final-four time), it's the critical moment where America (ostensibly) decides between eccentric beatboxing innovator Blake Lewis and teenaged belter Jordin Sparks.

The Kodak Theatre will be bursting at the seams, Simon Cowell will likely have traded his trademark plain tee-shirt for a suit, and Paula Abdul will have a bandaged face after a mishap with her Chihuahua. According to her publicist, the kindest of Idol's judging trio fell this weekend, breaking her nose and fracturing her toe as she avoided trying to step on her miniature pooch. The spokesman for the former pop star said that "She's a little sore, but is doing fine."

The dog was not hurt.

Beth Gaston Moon is an analyst at Schaeffer's Investment Research.

I was outraged this morning when my local news station broadcast the results from last night's "American Idol" -- Melinda Doolittle was voted off.

Simon Cowell made his preferences clear on Tuesday night. He wanted Jordin Sparks off and expected two finalists: Doolittle for her consistently excellent singing and Blake Lewis for his risk taking. I am guessing he thought those two had the best chance to make him money through record sales. I would have preferred to see Lewis go since I find him a mediocre singer who uses -- what I find very annoying "beatboxing" -- to make up the difference.

So why did Doolittle lose? There is no way to find out why she got fewer votes but my hunch is that she lacks charisma. Lewis probably took up the Sanjaya Malakar slack with the 12 year old girls and 17-year old Sparks exudes confidence and talent. While Doolittle lacks that magical quality, there is no doubt that she can sing better than the two finalists.

And if her post-Idol career is anything like last season's #4, Chris Daughtry's, Doolittle will be fine. However, with Doolittle off the show, it may hurt the ratings a bit for Idol owner, CKX Inc. (NASDAQ: CKXE) and News Corp.'s (NYSE: NWS) Fox.

Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates, a management consulting and venture capital firm. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter. He has no financial interest in CKX or News Corp.

Those scamps from Vote for the Worst are stirring up the pot at "American Idol" again.

First, the snarky Web site through its support to Sanjaya Malakar, perhaps the weirdest finalist in the News Corp. (NYSE: NWS) show's history. Now, beat box virtuoso Blake Lewis has gotten the site's backing.

'The judges make no sense when they love Blake's beat boxing one week and hate it the next," the site says. "Because of all this, VFTW is supporting Blake Lewis, the only semi-entertaining person left on the show. He's also the least consistent, so he could possibly throw in a little unpredictability."

Unlike Malakar. Lewis deserves to be on the "American Idol." He has a nice voice and his version of Bon Jovi's "You Give Love a Bad Name" -- beat boxing and all -- was one of the most original performances ever on the program. Sometimes, though, the beat boxing gets annoying.

Lewis doesn't deserve to win. Melinda Dolittle does. She is the best singer that's ever been on American Idol. Unfortunately, she has the charisma of guacamole.

Jordin Sparks is the next American Idol.

She's young, got a great voice and someone who can be packaged into a pop star in the Hillary Duff mold fairly easily. Sparks is an exceptional singer as well, especially for someone her age. Let's hope that her album outsells the debut from Sanjaya Malakar.

American Idol didn't just jump the shark last night. It transformed itself into a nauseating celebration of corporate sponsorship and celebrity self-indulgence that was breathtaking to behold.

Though AIDS in Africa and hunger in America are serious issues that deserve the public's attention and charitable donations, I had trouble taking "Idol Gives Back" seriously. Then again, my cynicism kicks into high gear whenever I see a gaggle of celebrities trying hard to convince me that I should care about something. Actors and corporations have a right under the first amendment to express their political views, but I have just as much of a right to ignore them.

"Idol Gives Back" was all about the close bonds between Hollywood and Wall Street.

American Idol makes big money from the advertising that's integrated into its show such as the glasses on the judges' table that have the Coca-Cola Co. (NYSE: KO) logo on them and those idiotic Ford Motor Co. (NYSE: F) commercials featuring the contestants doing renditions of pop hits that have as much musicality as a high school rendition of "Grease."

As an Idol viewer, I can live with all of that stuff. Heck, I even put up with the hapless Sanjaya Malakar, who was in the audience last night.

But host Ryan Seacrest took America's top-rated program into new territory last night with his prodigious thanking of all of the sponsors, including Fox's parent News Corp. (NYSE: NWS) and ExxonMobil Corp. (NYSE: XOM). He made these multi-billion corporations sound almost saintly at times.