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Options Update: American Axle option volume and prices elevated on expectations

American Axle (NYSE: AXL) closed at $2.01. AXL entered into a waiver and amendment to the company's credit, facility, which provides the company a waiver of its financial covenants through July 30, 2009. AXL options were active on July 29 with 30,608 contracts trading. AXL August 2.5 straddle is priced at 1.40, October 2.5 straddle is priced at $2.35 suggesting large price movement.

Patterson-UTI Energy (NYSE: PTEN) closed at $14.23. PTEN, an operator of 60 drilling rigs, is expected to report Q2 EPS today. PTEN August option implied volatility is at 55, September is at 49; below its 26-week average of 64. PTEN options were active on July 29 with 6,452 contracts, trading according to Track Data.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

Analyst upgrades: American Axle, Knight Transportation, Newfield Exploration

MOST NOTEWORTHY: American Axle, Knight Transportation and Newfield Exploration were today's noteworthy upgrades.

OTHER UPGRADES:

Analyst downgrades: General Motors, Anheuser-Busch, GlaxoSmithKline

MOST NOTEWORTHY: General Motors, Anheuser-Busch and GlaxoSmithKline were today's noteworthy downgrades.

  • Citigroup downgraded shares of General Motors Corporation (NYSE: GM) to Hold from Buy to reflect reduced earnings power and cash burn risks and recommends swapping into American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings Inc (NYSE: AXL).
  • Deutsche Bank cut Anheuser-Busch Companies Inc (NYSE: BUD) to Hold from Buy on valuation following the recent rally spurred by takeover speculation. The firm believes the reported $65/share cash takeover offer by Inbev requires aggressive cost reduction and could harm the brands.
  • Morgan Stanley downgraded shares of GlaxoSmithKline Plc (NYSE: GSK) to Underweight from Equal Weight as they see risk to Street expectations for a U.S. Cervarix approval in 2009.

OTHER DOWNGRADES:

General Motors (GM) discloses implications of AXL strike

GM logoGeneral Motors (NYSE: GM) shares are falling after the company announced this morning it expects a loss of $1.8 billion from the recently ended strike by American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings Inc. (NYSE: AXL) workers. The company also expects a lost production of an additional 230,000 vehicles in the second quarter. If you think this stock won't be rising too far in the coming months, then it could be a good time to look at a bearish hedged play on GM.

After hitting a one-year high of $43.20 in October, the stock hit a one-year low of $17.47 in March. This morning, GM opened at $18.31. So far today the stock has hit a low of $17.63 and a high of $18.34. As of 12:10, GM is trading at $17.63, down 80 cents (-4.0%). The chart for GM looks neutral and improving, while S&P gives the stock a neutral 3 STARS (out of 5) hold rating.

For a bearish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a September bear-call credit spread above the $25 range. A bear-call credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of call options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make an 8.7% return in four months as long as GM is below $25 at September expiration. GM would have to rise by more than 43% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.

GM hasn't been above $25 since February and has shown resistance around $21 recently. This trade could be risky if the US economy gets back on track, but even if that happens, this position could be protected by resistance GM might find around $23, where it topped out back in late April.

Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer.

DISCLOSURE: Mr. Archer owns and/or controls diversified portfolios of long and short stock and option positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in GM or AXL.

Newspaper wrap-up: GM plants to start production after strike settled

MAJOR PAPERS:
OTHER PAPERS:
WEB SITES:
  • According to Bloomberg, regulatory filings show that banks such as Citigroup Incorporated (NYSE: C) are failing to acknowledge at $35B of additional writedowns in their income statements.

Earnings highlights: Ford, Boeing, McDonald's, PepsiCo, JetBlue and others

Here are some highlights from this past week's earnings coverage from BloggingStocks:

Continue reading Earnings highlights: Ford, Boeing, McDonald's, PepsiCo, JetBlue and others

Newspaper wrap-up: BHP CEO lashes out at Rio Tinto

MAJOR PAPERS:
  • The Wall Street Journal reported that Ford Motor Company (NYSE: F) CEO Alan Mulally isn't done cost-cutting. According to people close to the situation, Mulally is considering more job cuts, selling its Volvo brand and closing the troubled Mercury brand.
  • BHP Billiton Limited (NYSE: BHP) CEO Marius Kloppers strongly criticized Rio Tinto Plc (NYSE: RTP) and its CEO yesterday, the Financial Times reported. BHP Billiton has outperformed Rio Tinto in several areas, including share price appreciation and EPS growth, said Kloppers, adding, "On every metric I can envisage they [Rio] have been beaten."
OTHER PAPERS:
  • According to the Economic Times, AT&T Inc (NYSE: T) is reportedly in preliminary talks with Malaysia's Maxis Communications about buying its 74% stake in Indian cellular phone company Aircel, sources said.
  • The United Auto Workers union has rejected several "generous" benefit and wage proposals, according to American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings Inc (NYSE: AXL). In a statement yesterday, the Detroit News reported that American Axle said while tentative agreements had been reached on several issues, the UAW "repeatedly rejected" other proposals that were "considerably higher than the market rate."

Newspaper wrap-up: Microsoft will wait out Yahoo, and not raise its offer

MAJOR PAPERS:
  • If Yahoo! Inc (NASDAQ: YHOO) accepts a buyout offer from Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT), it will have to be at the software maker's original offer of $44.6B. Microsoft won't raise the price, the Wall Street Journal reported, and the state of the economy might work in their favor.
  • The FAA said that landing gear made by Illinois-based AAR Corporation (NYSE: AIR), and used on hundreds of Boeing Company (NYSE: BA)-built aircraft, includes "unapproved" parts, the Wall Street Journal also reported.
  • Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc (NYSE: LEH) is thinking of not allowing its two British subprime mortgage units to provide any new loans. The Financial Times reported that the company may also order the units to put additional pressure on borrowers with a spotty credit history whose mortgages are coming to the end of fixed-rate terms.
OTHER PAPERS:

Cramer on BloggingStocks: This market is rough

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says the bad news is relentless, and people are discouraged.

Each day seems to be filled with so much disappointment. The American Axle (NYSE: AXL) (Cramer's Take) strike, for example, has now pretty much shut down General Motors (NYSE: GM) (Cramer's Take), and I see no signs that AXL can defeat the union. Given how heavily dependent the Midwest region is on GM for steady income, this one can only exacerbate the terrible real estate market and hence the terrible mortgage delinquencies that pockmark Indiana, Michigan and Ohio.

Or the loss of the Absolut brand for Fortune Brands (NYSE: FO) (Cramer's Take). Fortune needed to win this one because its home improvement business is falling off a cliff. This was a vain attempt to diversify a division that has always helped the company in tough times.

Or the Vytorin studies, nothing new, as we knew that parts of the medical community doesn't approve of the drug, but the analysts had held out hope and we have and are going to see repeated downgrades of the stock. I am telling subscribers of Action Alerts PLUS that Schering (NYSE: SGP) (Cramer's Take) stock, at $16 -- where it is surely headed -- has now lost more than half its value, which reflects the pulling of the drug. As 50% of the company's earnings are reportedly from the drug, perhaps that's a fitting decline. I think SGP is worth a lot more because of the purchase of Oraganon. I have been very wrong. My solace: So many others have been, too.

Continue reading Cramer on BloggingStocks: This market is rough

Newspaper wrap-up: Countrywide's knowledge of borrowers under scrutiny

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OTHER PAPERS:

Newspaper wrap-up: Vale, Xstrata talks at an impasse

MAJOR PAPERS:
  • A potential $90B deal between mining companies Companhia Vale Do Rio Doce (NYSE: RIO) and Xstrata has hit a number of snags that could possibly end talks, reported the Wall Street Journal, including that Xstrata shareholder Glencore International, which has agreements to market a large part of what Xstrata's mines, wants to expand that to include Vale products besides iron ore.
  • According to people familiar with the matter, bids for Australian retail-property giant Centro Properties are expected from The Blackstone Group LP (NYSE: BX) and General Electric Company's (NYSE: GE) GE Real Estate, among others, the Wall Street Journal reported.
OTHER PAPERS:

Analyst downgrades: AN, COT, HOV and TOL

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Toll Brothers (TOL), COTT Corp (COT), Tim Hortons (THI) and Linktone (LTON) were today's noteworthy downgrades:
  • Banc of America downgraded shares of Toll Brothers (NYSE: TOL) to Sell from Neutral, citing expected deterioration in luxury sales due to mortgage distress in the marketplace.
  • COTT Corp (NYSE: COT) was cut to Hold from Buy at Stifel, citing the difficult macro environment and continued profit declines.
  • Tim Hortons (NYSE: THI) was downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman, citing valuation, and notes that fundamentals remain favorable.
  • Montgomery cut Linktone (NASDAQ: LTON) to Hold from Buy, citing the sudden decline in its wireless VAS revenues following Q2 results...
OTHER DOWNGRADES:
Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).

Analyst downgrades 1-31-07: The Auto & Truck Suppliers broke an axle

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Kellogg Co (K) and the Auto & Truck Supplier Sector were today's noteworthy downgrades:
  • JP Morgan downgraded Kellogg Co (NYSE: K) to Neutral from Outperform, citing reduced earnings growth.
  • Baird downgraded the Auto & Truck Supplier Sector to Market Underweight citing valuation and lower estimates; the firm downgraded American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings Inc (NYSE: AXL), Autoliv Inc (NYSE: ALV) and Modine Manufacturing Co (NYSE: MOD) to Underperform from Neutral.

OTHER DOWNGRADES:
  • JP Morgan downgraded Juniper Networks Inc (NASDAQ: JNPR) to Market Perform from Outperform with a $22 target, explaining that although Juniper's December quarter showed improved revenue results, earnings guidance was disappointing given investment plans for 2007.
  • Sanders Morris downgraded Benihana Inc (NASDAQ: BNHNA) to Buy from Strong Buy with a $38 target, noting that they cannot find enough catalysts that would push shares another 20% in the next six months; however, the firm is still bullish on Benihana's short-term and long-term outlooks.
  • Credit Suisse downgraded Office Depot Inc (NYSE: ODP) to Neutral from Outperform, with a $41 target and believes that expectations to be overly optimistic.
Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).

Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA+20.0310,246.97
NASDAQ-2.982,151.08
S&P 500-0.071,093.01

Last updated: November 10, 2009: 06:48 PM

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