Analyst Upgrades

• Siemens (SI) to buy from hold at Deutsche Bank.
• Diamond Offshore (DO) to market perform from underperform at FBR Capital.
• MeadWestvaco (MWV) to conviction buy from neutral at Goldman.
• TD AmeriTrade (AMTD) and Cabot Oil & Gas (COG) to buy from neutral at BofA/Merrill.
• Janus Capital (JNS) to hold from sell at Citigroup.
• Motorola Mobility (MMI) to buy from neutral at UBS.
• Frontier Communications (FTR) to neutral from underperform at Macquarie.
• Humana (HUM) to buy from hold at Argus.

Analyst Upgrades

• Intel (INTC), ON Semiconductor (ONNN), Lattice Semiconductor (LSCC), Fairchild Semiconductor (FSC), STMicroelectronics (STM) and Altera (ALTR) to outperform from neutral at RW Baird.
• Capital One (COF) to overweight from equal weight at Morgan Stanley.
• Dollar Tree (DLTR) to buy from neutral at Goldman.
• Foot Locker (FL) to buy from neutral at Sterne Agee.
• Progressive (PGR) to buy from neutral at BofA/Merrill.
• Flow International (FLOW) to buy from neutral at Roth Capital.
• Signature Bank (SBNY) to buy from hold at Jefferies.
• HiSoft Technology (HSFT) to buy from neutral at UBS.

Analyst Upgrades

• General Growth (GGP) to outperform from neutral at Credit Suisse.
• PPL Corp. (PPL) to outperform from market perform at FBR Capital.
• Hudson City Bancorp (HCBK) to neutral from reduce at Nomura.
• Hologic (HOLX) to conviction buy from buy at Goldman.
• Cognex (CGNX) to overweight from neutral at Piper Jaffray.
• Buckeye Partners (BPL) to outperform from market perform at Wells Fargo.
• Ericsson (ERIC) and Health Care REIT (HCN) to buy from neutral and Olin (OLN) to neutral from sell at UBS.
• Nalco (NLC) to overweight from neutral at JPMorgan.
• Watts Water (WTS) to buy from hold at BB&T.
• McDermott (MDR) to buy from neutral at Pritchard.

Two weeks ago I decided to sell my shares of E*Trade (ETFC) after concluding it did not fit my investment criteria. It was one of my successful picks for 2010 and I made money having sold puts establishing a base price of $13.50. It closed Friday February 25 at $15.89.

I might not have chosen to post about this except for news that Ken Griffin's hedge fund Citadel Investment Group plans to sell much of its stake in E*Trade Financial. The largest shareholder selling out is news. Citadel will still hold valuable warrants, giving it the option of taking a very large position again, but for now there seems to be a change of heart for them as well.

Ameritrade (AMTD) is an online brokerage that allows individual investors to trade equities, options and other securities. Ameritrade also offers money market account services to clients through TD Bank USA. It competes with other online brokerages and financial services firms like E-Trade (ETFC), Charles Schwab (SCHW), Wells Fargo (WFC) and Bank of America (BAC).

Following results we have updated our price estimate to $22.65. The company's shares are currently trading at a discount of almost 10% to our estimate. We believe that the biggest contributing factor to the difference in prices is the outlook for Ameritrade's earnings from money market deposit accounts.

Understanding Money Market Deposit Accounts

A money market deposit account is like a savings bank account where clients deposit money and in earn a slightly higher interest rate on it. Account holders can typically make a few transactions a month that are free and are governed by a slightly different set regulations and rules.

MMDAs became a source of revenue for Ameritrade in 2006 resulting from an agreement with TD Bank USA. This agreement was inked as a part of Ameritrade's acquisition of TD Waterhouse in January 2006. Prior to 2006, interest revenues for Ameritrade were a significantly smaller part of the total revenues and included interest earned on the cash and securities that clients deposit with Ameritrade in order to trade online.

Contribution of MMDAs to Ameritrade's Value

Ameritrade receives a fee from TD Bank for providing marketing, record keeping and support services for their money market deposit accounts. The fee is based on the yield earned on the client assets less the actual interest paid to clients, a flat fee to the banks of 25 basis points and the cost of FDIC insurance premiums. It is also a high margin service as Ameritrade enjoys EBITDA margins as high as 50% from MMDA services.

The net yield for Ameritrade from an MMDA was as high as 4% in early 2008, before it fell to under 2% in 2009. We believe that the interest rate will gradually increase over the years to reach the highs it achieved in the pre-recessionary years. Moreover, the increasing popularity of an MMDA over normal savings account among clients due to the higher interest offered is also a significant draw for Ameritrade.

In 2008-2010, Ameritrade migrated client cash held in client credit balances and money market mutual funds into money market account offerings. The total balance in these money market accounts with Ameritrade almost doubled each year during this time period. Going forward, we expect the balance in these accounts to grow by at least 5% annually.

The estimated values of MMDA yields and client balances likely contribute to as much 42% of Ameritrade's share. You can modify the forecast above to see how they impact Ameritrade's price estimate.

You can see the complete $22.65 Trefis price estimate for Ameritrade's stock here.

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U.S. stock futures are mostly higher this morning as investors await earnings reports from several companies. However, shares of Apple Inc (AAPL) dropped in pre-market trading. Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 37 points to 11,762.00 and S&P 500 futures gained 2.20 points to 1,292.20. Futures on the Nasdaq 100, however, dropped 12.50 points to 2,307.50.

U.S. markets were closed on Monday for the Martin Luther King Day holiday. Stocks closed higher on Friday, with the Dow gaining 55.48 points, or 0.47%.

Rumor has it -- again -- that dot.bomb era survivor E*Trade (ETFC) may be acquired by none other than Charles Schwab Corp. (SCHW) for an initial offer of $24 a share. This chatter moved the stock price marginally Friday up 72 cents to $15.27. Although as of Monday morning the rumors are unsubstantiated, trading in stock options has heated up on the call side.

Bantering about the inevitable acquisition of E*Trade has been an annual pastime on and off for the past 10 years, but they resurfaced again in earnest after the financial crisis creamed most companies and institutions. E*Trade is currently capitalized at $3.37 billion. If the rumors bear fruit, the Schwab offer represents approximately a 60% premium to the current price.

TD Ameritrade (AMTD), a broker whose competitors include Charles Schwab (SCHW) and E*Trade (ETFC), closed Wednesday's session higher by 2%. The final quote came in at $14.93. That's not too far from the 52-week low of $14.53. The twelve-month range is a narrow one, as the 52-week high is $21.30.

Is the stock a trade? An investment? Indeed, you may be thinking that it's time to buy. Some things worry me, however. The one-year chart isn't attractive at all. Well, in one sense it is, because a trader/investor would be buying low at this point.

E*Trade (ETFC), an online broker whose colleagues include Charles Schwab (SCHW) and TD Ameritrade (AMTD), is a low-priced stock. It closed on Wednesday at $1.82, representing a rise of 2.8%; the move was backed by strong volume. The company reported first-quarter earnings yesterday after the bell. What should we make of the results?

According to MarketWatch, things seem to be improving. A loss of 2 cents per share compared very favorably to the loss of 41 cents per share booked in the year-ago period. As for estimates, the analysts were thinking that a loss of 3 cents per share was in the offing.

Here are some highlights from this past week's earnings coverage on BloggingStocks:

• Alcatel-Lucent (ALU) received an analyst's downgrade following its disappointing earnings report and guidance.
• Chicago Bridge & Iron Co. (CBI) improved earnings prospects prompted one analyst to upgrade the stock.
• Cintas Corp. (CTAS) lower Q3 earnings topped analysts' expectations, and it reiterated its Q4 earnings guidance.
• CRA International Inc. (CRAI) received an analyst's downgrade following its earnings results for Q1.
• Discover Financial Services (DFS) reported a net loss for Q1 due to a needed boost to its loan loss reserves.

Analyst Upgrades

• JMP Securities views Yahoo!'s (YHOO) risk-reward as compelling, especially as cyclical and secular growth of online advertising improves. The firm upgraded shares to outperform from market perform and has a $21 target.
• FBR Capital upgraded PNC Financial (PNC) to outperform from market perform, citing an attractive valuation and better risk profile following the company's capital raise. The firm raised its target price on shares to $65 fro $55.
• Janney Montgomery upgraded SEI Investments (SEIC) to buy from neutral on expectations the company's revenues will accelerate in 2011. The firm has a $28 price target on shares.
• Research in Motion (RIMM) was upgraded to outperform from market perform at BMO Capital.
• Cisco (CSCO) was upgraded to overweight from neutral at JPMorgan.
• Macy's (M) was upgraded to buy from hold at Soleil.

Analyst Upgrades

• Oppenheimer upgraded Home Depot (HD) to outperform from perform on expectations that comp sales growth in the home improvement retail sector will accelerate. The firm has a $37 price target for Home Depot shares. The firm also reiterates an outperform rating on Lowe's (LOW).
• UBS upgraded Mattel (MAT) to buy from neutral, citing solid demand in core brands, strong free cash flow and improved cost structure, among other reasons. The firm raised its target to $26 from $21.
• Thomas Weisel upgraded Dreamworks (DWA) to overweight from market weight, citing upcoming releases and increased international expectations. The firm raised its target to $47 from $40.
• TD AmeriTrade (AMTD) was upgraded to outperform from market perform at FBR Capital.
• Whole Foods (WFMI) was upgraded to overweight from neutral at JPMorgan.
• Whiting Petroleum (WLL) was upgraded to overweight from equal weight at Barclays.

Here are some highlights from this past week's earnings coverage on BloggingStocks:

• Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (AMD) shares declined despite an earnings beat and a positive outlook
• Bank of America Corp. (BAC) reported that its Q4 loss widened more than expected by Wall Street.
• Capital One Financial Corp. (COF) reported better-than-expected earnings but shares declined.
• Colgate-Palmolive Co. (CL) is seen as on-track to record double-digit earnings growth in 2010.
• Cree Inc. (CREE) strong earnings and revenue growth sent shares to a new 52-week high.

TD Ameritrade Holding Corporation (AMTD) didn't experience a spectacular start to its new fiscal year. The broker, which competes with Charles Schwab (SCHW) and E*Trade Financial Corporation (ETFC), was hampered by a decline in trading activities.

According to the press release, revenues increased a modest 2% from the year-ago period. On a sequential basis, the top line actually contracted. Net income decreased 26% to 23 cents per share. Earnings.com indicates an expectation of 26 cents per share. Margins and profitability metrics unfortunately were down across the board.