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Options Update: Baxter volatility low at 22 into analyst day

Baxter (NYSE: BAX) is hosting an analyst day on September 16. BAX closed at $55.60. BAX September option implied volatility of 22 is near its 26-week average of 32 according to Track Data, suggesting decreasing price movement.

Chesapeake Energy (NYSE: CHK) closed at $23.09. Natural gas is recently up 1.32% to 2.844 according to Bloomberg. CHK September option implied volatility is at 45, October is at 47; below its 26-week average of 61, according to Track Data, suggesting decreasing price movement.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.

Margins improving at Sun, but no real growth yet

Sun Microsystems Inc (NASDAQ: SUNW), the networking computing company, reported impressive cash generation metrics last night, while sales continued to be light.

For the June 2007 fiscal year, Sun generated $1.2 billion in operating income and cash flow from operations of $950 million -- a vast improvement. Gross margin also improved 200 basis points for the year and almost 400 basis points from last year's Q4.

The problem at Sun continues to be revenue growth, as there was little year-over-year growth in the current quarter and the company is guiding to low-to-mid single digit revenue growth for the year -- which is not a good sign for a technology company. Also, the company provided no guidance for the upcoming quarter, leaving much of the growth to the tail end of FY 2008, which typically is not good.

Sun announced that it will host its analyst day in New York on September 5 and mentioned that it will discuss its capital structure, which is not a subject that is typically highlighted, a sign something more dramatic might happen with the $5 billion in balance-sheet cash.

Overall, Sun has little downside risk and has a private equity investment via a convert priced in the $7 price range. The computer-is-the-network company appears it might be setting itself up for a private equity deal with its focus on higher margin businesses and better cost controls.

Be careful chasing retailer Liz Claiborne

Liz Clairborne Inc (NYSE: LIZ) was mentioned in Barron's "Weekday Trader" as a stock to look at. However, be careful jumping into this retailer, with the one caveat being that private equity could scoop up the company.

Barron's cited insider buying and the upcoming analyst day as reasons that could spur investor interest, which are good reasons. Also, Liz's stock now sells for $38.45, down 28% from the $46.60 high posted earlier in the year.

However, one has to question the hiring of William McComb, a long-time Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) executive, to become head of one of the most influential fashion companies in New York. McComb replaces Paul Carron, a well-respect executive within fashion circles. Also, another former top executive from Liz, Trudy Sullivan, took the CEO spot at Talbots.

Investors should check out the analyst day before jumping into this stock. If the management presentation is all about pruning brands and lowering costs, I'd run to the hills. Fashion at the end of the day is about new products. No new products and customers leave the store with empty bags.

Market highlights for next week: Google and Yahoo reporting

Monday April 16
  • Citigroup Inc (NYSE: C) to report Q1 earnings; conference call at 10am.
  • PDUFA date for Neurochem Inc's (NASDAQ: NRMX) Eprodisate extended from today to 7/16.
Tuesday April 17
Wednesday April 18
Thursday April 19
Friday April 20

Analysts not blinded by Sun at investor's day

Sun Microsystems Inc (NASDAQ: SUNW) held its annual investor's day with the investment community yesterday. Analysts seemed not to share Jonathan Schwartz's, CEO of Sun, enthusiasm for where the company is headed.

Here are some opinions from analyst reports which were posted on Barron's Tech Trader Daily:

Richard Gardner of Citigroup believes Schwartz continues to adopt the view that Sun's decision to open source its entire software stack will drive developers and users to its platform(s), eventually creating opportunities to monetize R&D investments. Gardner agrees with the premise that volume drives value, but how much value, for whom and over what time period is still unclear.

Thomas Weisel analyst Kevin Hunt still has concerns regarding the "lackluster" storage business (tape market and integration of StorageTek), and as a result, maintains a Market Weight rating on Sun's shares.

Deutsche Bank's Chris Whitmore believes that Schwartz and his team are driving operational and product line improvements, but that this is more than reflected in Sun's shares. Whitmore believes Sun's operating margin goal requires double digit revenue growth through F09, and maintains a Hold rating with a price target of $5.50.

Goldman Sachs's Laura Conigliaro said, "There are significant execution elements to be hurdled and timing could be lumpy."

While analysts reports are peppered with optimistic caveats, they are few and far between. Also, analysts and investors are still questioning the reasoning behind the convertible bond offering with KKR.

Sun's stock has had a massive rally recently, it might be time to take some profits.

Yahoo's analyst day: Meet the "Next Yahoo!"

Today is Yahoo!'s first analyst day in three years. Held at the Four Seasons in San Francisco, the meeting runs from 8 am. to 2 p.m. Pacific Time. The actual meeting is by invitation only, but you can see the live webcast.

The meeting is just getting underway, but so far Yahoo!'s stock is holding up pretty well considering how badly the Dow is getting hammered.  At 11:35 a.m. ET, it is down just 2 cents to $30.95. Meantime, the Dow is down 160 points, or 1.4%.

The goal of the meeting is to introduce the "next Yahoo!"

"I feel more invigorated today than ever before," CEO Terry Semel said after presenting the overview. 

Dan Rosensweig, the chief operating officer is up next. Mostly he is going through the home page, highlighting new features. He's on personalization right now -- with an emphasis on "monetization" possibilities.

12:15:

Lloyd Braun, who runs Yahoo!'s media group, is up now. He says Yahoo! will continue with partnerships, new content, and user-generated content. But that's just part of his plans. "The special brew for yahoo is going to be through the integration of our pillars and tools." That means community, personalization, search, etc.

Yahoo!'s programmers will "frame choices" for the user, to send them to other sites. "We need to entice the user to create and to share and make sure the user never reaches a dead end." Even if they leave, they will use Yahoo! search.

Have to say that this doesn't sound like much new to me. 

2:15:

I've been listening to the call off and on today. The emphasis has been on search -- recent improvements, working with advertisers, keeping it front and center for users. Tim Cadogan, vice president of search, was impressive.

Speaking now is Gregory Coleman, executive vice president, global advertising sales. He's talking a lot about targeting. "You need both targeting and tonnage" to get attention, he just said. I'm not quite sure what that means, but I like the aliteration!

 

Continue reading Yahoo's analyst day: Meet the "Next Yahoo!"

eBay after the bell 05-04-06: Meg promises much, investors unimpressed

ebay chart 05-04-06The big news today from eBay's analyst day was that Meg Whitman was promising: now, with even more revenue growth! Her presentation, and that of the other executives from eBay proper, PayPal and Skype, were really great. Evidently, either (a) you investors weren't watching or (b) without the analysts to tell you if it was good, you weren't ready to pull the trigger. After all, if a company talks to the analysts through market close, how can they affect the market? The stock was down a teeny bit, six cents, to $34.11, on a bit better-than-average volume.

Well. If you were online with me, you were armed with more info (you know, to toot my own horn, and all). I filled you in about eBay's view of their craigslist investment; how they planned to create synergies with Skype; how proud was the company of their 7% of worldwide long distance minutes; how PayPal will soon let you buy used books at your neighbor's yard sale with your mobile phone; and how $3 billion in cash was withdrawn from ATMs via PayPal debit cards. If I had to pick one thing I came away from those hours of watching Meg & team present (I mean, something substantial... I could go on forever about fashion choices but this isn't the style blog) it was that they really believe in their vision and they are fantastic at describing it. I was feeling a little scared off by the stock's rich price, but after listening to Meg, Bob, and the Skype and PayPal execs tell me about how they're going to change the world? Boy do I want to be along for the ride.

Continue reading eBay after the bell 05-04-06: Meg promises much, investors unimpressed

eBay analyst day: why craigslist?

it on ebayToday is eBay's Analyst Day, and we're watching the webcast to glean any important bits of info for you. Stay tuned for more throughout the afternoon.

Why did eBay take a stake in craigslist, the everyman's online classifieds? It made sense to me immediately, although I don't think I could put it in dollars and cents: for me and my friends, craigslist is IT (and, it turns out, we didn't find this particular IT on eBay). I got my job, my friends, my gossip, my double stroller, and someone to pick up my beat-up dryer on craigslist. It's how we all connected locally - and it's not nearly so efficient to buy or sell a large but relatively low-value item (hello appliances & baby goods) on eBay.

Meg answers an analyst question about craigslist by saying this: "We say - increasing returns on a city-by-city basis with craigslist. It's the theory that the buyers go where the sellers are, and the sellers go where the buyers are; we see it as, where classifieds get to a critical mass." Translated to say: newspaper classifieds are so over but it wasn't eBay which demolished them: it was craigslist. My question is, how do you monetize that? I suppose time will tell. I'd hate to see craigslist start charging for listing garage sale announcements and, yep, those beat-up old washers and dryers. Meg says that eBay will allow craigslist to remain autonomous (and, one would hope, still free but for job listings). We shall see.

[Disclaimer: I own a few shares of eBay, and next time I have cash to invest, I think I'm buying some more.]

eBay analyst day: all about synergies

ebay the power of 3Today is eBay's Analyst Day, and we're watching the webcast to glean any important bits of info for you. Stay tuned for more throughout the afternoon.

Skypecasts and Skype Me! are the names of the game: the answer to "how will eBay integrate Skype with PayPal and auctions?"

Everyone wants to hear more from our favorite CEO, Meg Whitman, and she has taken back the stage after lunch. She discusses the integration between Skype and eBay, raves about Skypecasts, and tells the gathered analysts: eBay transactions that allow potential buyers to "Skype Me" sell for twice the sales price of the transactions, that don't. Her keynote address is that "eBay provides your online reputation, PayPal provides your wallet, and Skype provides your online presence." She makes the argument that you will soon be able to take all of these aspects of your "self" with you wherever you go; "the internet will no longer be just a destination, but the fully integrated and ever present part of your lives."

[Tim Beyers from Motley Fool agrees with Meg: in his opinion, Skypecasts are a fantastic justification for Skype's $2.6 billion purchase price.]

Continue reading eBay analyst day: all about synergies

eBay analyst day: Skype gets 7% of worldwide minutes

Today is eBay's Analyst Day, and we're watching the webcast to glean any important bits of info for you. Stay tuned for more throughout the afternoon.

According to Skype President Rajiv Dutta, over 7% of worldwide long distance minutes are over Skype. That's truly incredible. Skype is such a young company, too, and far more penetrated in Northern Europe than anywhere else (it was founded in Great Britain). The possibility for growth seems fairly huge. Will it justify the $2.6 billion acquisition cost? More on that, later, as we talk integration. What it will do is give some hope to the people who wonder at the eye-popping richness of a 50x P/E ratio.

I want to just focus on the numbers but Skype is about "conversations," as the execs are telling us, so I'll describe the entirely adorable presentation introduction, in which a middle-aged man somewhere in England talks to his mom over Skype. She's still in her bathrobe. Oh. My. God. I fall over from the cuteness and spend several minutes under my desk.

[Disclaimer: I own a few shares of eBay, and I am responsible for some tiny fraction of those long distance minutes talked on Skype.]

eBay analyst day: mobile money with PayPal

paypal slide 2Today is eBay's Analyst Day, and we're watching the webcast to glean any important bits of info for you. Stay tuned for more throughout the afternoon.

"I'll pay you back next time." How many times have you heard that? PayPal wants to change all that by allowing person-to-person payments via your mobile phone. If you are a PayPal executive and you're buying a case of wine in Napa Valley, no need to tote a bunch of cash -- just let your friend pick up the case on his credit card and you can PayPal him back a couple of bills in the parking lot (before putting the half-case in the trunk of your Mercedes sedan, of course). I'm psyched, because next time I go to the Goodwill outlet, and my friend Larissa and I go diving for funky thrift items to re-sell on eBay, we can combine our loot (it's less per pound the more you buy) and I can pay her back instantaneously. Or how 'bout this: garage sales! It's brilliant. If I could use my PayPal account at garage sales, I'd buy so much more.

This is working now, and a new feature that was just released: text-to-pay. There's a demonstration of how it works; the presenter buys a Walk The Line DVD from his phone with his PayPal account (a UPS deliveryman brings it immediately -- yeah, you're cute, eBay). It's great, but you could already buy that DVD with your cell phone (yeah, you had to call the 800 number and tell them your credit card number, etc. - but still. Not changing the world). You can't use your credit card at a garage sale. Your buddy doesn't have a credit card acceptor when you split the check. That's where PayPal makes a difference, in my opinion.

[Disclaimer: I own a few shares of eBay, and I've been known to sell things on eBay, purchased at the Goodwill outlet, for a profit.]

eBay analyst day: $3 billion in PayPal debit withdrawals

paypal value-added productsToday is eBay's Analyst Day, and we're watching the webcast to glean any important bits of info for you. Stay tuned for more throughout the afternoon.

eBay is really three brands now: eBay, Skype and PayPal. The PayPal team is on now, and after an introduction by a hugely pregnant woman whose presentation was excellent (but I was in such admiration of her belly that I had a hard time focusing), we got some numbers. This one was interesting to me: $3 billion has been withdrawn using PayPal debit cards.

I have a PayPal debit card, and I can't tell you how nice it was to be able to use funds from eBay sales instantaneously (to buy coffee at Starbucks, naturally). This figure really illustrates how widely the PayPal service has penetrated the interperson payment marketplace.

[Disclaimer: I own a few shares of eBay, and have been known to buy groceries, lattes and glasses of yummy red wine with my PayPal debit card.]

Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA-74.9212,454.83
NASDAQ-1.852,837.53
S&P 500-2.861,317.82

Last updated: May 28, 2012: 01:32 AM

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