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Five stock market experts share their views

In this post from late April, I asked several financial experts where they thought the stock market was headed. Here's another round of predictions with a new batch of experts.

Neal Berger, the fund manager who called the market top, founder of fund-of-funds Eagle's View Asset Management, is always seeking undiscovered fund managers who exploit a legitimate "edge" or inefficiency in the market. With decades of experience at prominent firms such as Fuji Bank, Chase Bank, and Millennium Partners, he now manages the investments of wealthy families/individuals.

Continue reading Five stock market experts share their views

The week in preview: Optimism reigns, but will earnings news prolong the fiesta?

We are investing in optimistic times. News -- good or bad -- seems to magically morph into an opportunity to move markets higher. In the past week, even more than usual, weak economic news was accompanied by commentary along the lines of, "it could have been worse," and other euphoric sentiments.

It is difficult to determine whether this is another short-covering bear market bounce or a real rally. But next week will bring us new information that will start to indicate where the answer lies. For now, investors are looking at the glass as half-full. Cash on the sidelines is moving in to equities, partly because there are very few other alternatives. Yields are low, commodities are risky and real estate is taboo.

Next week begins with the celebration of Cinco de Mayo, yet the markets were way ahead -- it has shifted into party mode on its own during the past few weeks. Here is a summary of key events to watch during the week ahead:

Monday, May 5

First off, the market gets a chance to react to news of Microsoft withdrawing its bid for Yahoo. It will be interesting to see how far Yahoo's stock price sinks as well as what all the market watchers think Yahoo (NASDAQ: YHOO) and Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) will do next.

Hewitt Associates (NYSE: HEW) the HR firm that has been showing amazing strength is set to report. First Call is looking for quarterly earnings of $.38 as compared to a year ago of $.23. There may be opportunity for this firm as we go into harder economic times where companies are looking for an easy solution to labor concerns.

Also reporting is Nam Tai Electronics (NYSE: NTE). It could have a good quarter since the need for computer parts is on the rise. Intel and Apple did well to show that international demand is still hot for electronics and this is one of the parts manufacturers. Through its electronics manufacturing services operations, Nam Tai makes electronic components and sub-assemblies, including liquid crystal display (LCD) panels, LCD modules, flexible printed circuit sub-assemblies and image sensors modules and printed circuit board assembly for Bluetooth headsets. First Call estimates are for $.19 as compared to year ago of $.19 per share on $163 million of revenue.

Continue reading The week in preview: Optimism reigns, but will earnings news prolong the fiesta?

Growing credit debt may not be good for credit card company Capital One

Andrew Horowitz, is a money manager and author of The Disciplined Investor. He discusses COF in the most recent episode of The Disciplined Investor Podcast

In an 8-K release this morning, Capital One Financial Corp. (NYSE: COF) reported a 13.7% increase in the monthly charge off rate for the U.S. card segment as compared to the December, 2007 report. As has been predicted, global credit card debt has been rising at an alarming rate. The most recent announcements of a 40% workforce reduction for Capital One's U.K. unit once again displays how "predatory lending practices" have now come back to haunt those companies that have been playing with financial-fire. As the Capital One Management was working on keeping credit card customers, they did not realize that that same level of loyalty would eventually come back to bite them in the asterisk. (Chart from 2007 COF Investor Conference)

When looking at the total picture, Capital One's $505,083,000 monthly principal write-off is becoming more and more concerning as we are continuing to witness a global economic contraction. Consumers are spending less as they have greater worries about their shrinking wallets...Right? They (we) are also becoming painfully aware that the housing slowdown is not going to be a short-lived phenomena. As their home values continue to fade, they are looking for alternative ways to pay for their everyday living expenses. This has led most to the only alternative they have to feed and clothe their family: The Credit Card in the wallet and the ones in the back of the drawer.

Now, as the "almost-affirmed" recession is upon us, delinquencies will rise along with foreclosures and bankruptcies. This will surely trickle down to the lenders as the inflows they receive dwindle, outflows grow and non-recoverable debt increases. While a 6% rate may seem historically high, back in 2003, Capital One posted rates closer to 8% as the U.S. was starting on the road to recovery from a difficult 2 years of recession and the fall off from the domestic stock markets averaging near -50%. The same predicament is what lies ahead as the stock market losses are substituted by housing losses. Even though property values may appear to be "on paper" the physiological wealth effect (or is it defect?) still hurts consumer confidence. All of this leads us back to an ever increasing problem with consumer credit.

Continue reading Growing credit debt may not be good for credit card company Capital One

Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA-89.2312,801.23
NASDAQ-23.352,903.88
S&P 500-9.311,342.64

Last updated: February 12, 2012: 04:40 AM

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