William Blair upgraded Parexel (NASDAQ: PRXL) to Outperform from Market Perform on increased conviction in the company's earnings growth outlook following channel checks.
Friedman Billings upgraded UDR Inc (NYSE: UDR) to Outperform from Market Perform and raised its target to $22 from $26 citing the company's approximate 8% implied cap rate on is vastly improved apartment portfolio.
Citigroup upgraded Abercrombie & Fitch (NYSE: ANF) to Hold from Sell on valuation as they believe weak fundamentals are now priced into the stock.
Goldman upgraded Portland General Electric (NYSE: POR) to Buy from Neutral and added shares to the Conviction Buy List.
Bernstein upgraded DISH Network (NASDAQ: DISH) to Market Perform from Underperform.
Analyst downgrades:
Deutsche Bank downgraded Align Tech (NASDAQ: ALGN) to Hold from Buy as they believe macroeconomic pressures will limit the company's ability to reach longer term growth expectations. Align's target was lowered to $8 from $14.
Jefferies downgraded shares of Advanced Medical (NYSE: EYE) to Underperform from Buy and lowered its target to $9 from $28 following the company's lowered guidance as they believe macroeconomic pressures affecting LASIK volumes and the unanticipated slowdown in lens care should put continued pressure on the stock.
ThinkPanmure expects the macro slowdown and credit crunch to slow Intel's (NASDAQ: INTC) growth and IT capex spending. The firm downgraded shares to Sell from Buy, lowered its 2009 EPS estimate to $1.01 from $1.35, vs. consensus of $1.46, and cut Intel's target to $12 from $24.
MGM Mirage (NYSE: MGM) was lowered to Neutral from Positive at Susquehanna.
Charles River Labs (NYSE: CRL) was downgraded at William Blair to Market Perform from Outperform.
Old Second Bancorp (NASDAQ: OSBC) was initiated with a Market Perform rating and $17 target at Keefe Bruyette. The firm believes the company's exposure to strong markets should generate above-average returns.
Susquehanna assumed Affiliated Computer (NYSE: ACS) with a Positive rating and $55 target and is positive on the company's low levels of customer concentration and high levels of geographic diversification.
Cowen resumed coverage of AnnTaylor (NYSE: ANN) with a Neutral rating, citing the company's share loss to competitors and top-line weakness..
MetLife (NYSE: MET) was assumed with an Overweight rating at Morgan Stanley.
JMP Securities initiated HFF Inc (NYSE: HF) with a Market Perform rating.
Genpact (NYSE: G) was initiated at Susquehanna with a Neutral rating.
Volatility is becoming the market's new name. Much of yesterday's 700+ point drop in the DJIA was largely erased as the DJIA was up more than 400 points for most of the last hour today. The markets weren't driven by a bailout package. It was the BELIEF that a new passage would get passed by the weekend. Consumer confidence did come in stronger than expected, although the Conference Board noted that the data cut off date was September 23, before the last round of malaise hit.
Here were today's unofficial closing bell levels: DJIA 10,862.61 (+497.16; +4.80%) NASDAQ 2,082.33 (+98.60; +4.97%) S&P500 1,163.93 (+57.54; +5.20%) 10YR T-NOTE 3.827% (+0.195) 52-WEEK LOWS TOP UPGRADES, many moved here. TOP DOWNGRADES
Abercrombie & Fitch Co. (NYSE: ANF) rose after an analyst upgrade this morning. The young adult clothing company was raised to an "Outperform" at FBR. With shares on a year low and having sold off nearly 60% and a P/E ratio of well under 10.0, that brought some interest from Wall Street. Shares were up over 11% at $39.70 in today's final minutes.
Huntsman Corp. (NYSE: HUN) was one monster mover today. A judge ruled that the private equity firms that walked away could not claim the material adverse change. Shares were up a whopping 70% at $12.59 in today's final minutes.
Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC) rose on a call out of Piper Jaffray as one of several key technology upgrades. The firm raised its Neutral rating to a Buy rating with a $22.00 price target. Shares were up 6% at $18.36 in the final minutes of the trading day.
Conexant Systems Inc. (NASDAQ: CNXT) rose sharply after the communications chip company raised its guidance to EPS of $0.24 to $0.26 vs. $0.15 estimates. Imagine a chip company raising guidance in today's climate. Shares were up 42% at $4.10 in the final trading minutes today on more than 5-times volume.
Piper upgraded Intel (NASDAQ: INTC) to Buy from Neutral to reflect the company's strong competitive position and low valuation. The firm does not expect Intel to miss Q3 estimates.
Goldman upgraded shares of Deutsche Telecom (NYSE: DT) to Buy from Neutral and added the stock to the Conviction Buy List as they believe the dividend is well covered.
Wachovia upgraded Landstar System (NASDAQ: LSTR) to Outperform from Market Perform on valuation and potential near-term catalysts from hurricane-related activities.
Abercrombie & Fitch (NYSE: ANF) was raised to Outperform from Market Perform at Friedman Billings.
Research in Motion (NASDAQ: RIMM) was upgraded at JMP Securities to Outperform from Market Perform.
Baird lifted Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC) to Neutral from Underperform.
Analyst downgrades:
Jefferies downgraded VCA Antech (NASDAQ: WOOF) to Underperform from Buy as they believe reduced consumer spending and rising unemployment levels will hurt the company's hospital and lab volumes in FY09. The company's target was lowered to $25 from $35.
Oppenheimer downgraded shares of Total System (NYSE: TSS) to Perform from Outperform to reflect the challenging macro environment and the customer portfolio risk from bank consolidation.
U.S. stock futures were much higher Tuesday morning, following Monday's historic record plunge of 777.7 points in the Dow after the House of Representatives failed to pass the proposed $700 billion bailout plan. Investors hope a similar rescue package would pass soon and will tune in to listen to President Bush at 8:45 a.m. EST. Meanwhile, across the globe, Europe bailed out another bank, but markets in Europe are mixed. Asian markets, which close earlier, recorded mostly large declines. Also on tap today is data from the housing sector and a measure of Chicago-area manufacturing and consumer confidence for September.
It is also quite possible many have come in to buy at these prices for at least a short-term gain. If the VIX volatility index is any indication, then stocks may climb in the next few weeks.
Of stocks in focus:
National City Corp. (NYSE: NCC), whose stock plunged over 63% Monday on overall weakness but also as Moody's Investors Service placed its senior debt rating of A3 on review for a possible downgrade, is bouncing back over 15% 30% in pre-market trading.
Citigroup Inc. (NYSE: C), which MOnday agreed to acquire Wachovia's (NYSE: WB) banking business for a knock-down price of $2.16 billion, with help from the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. is also seeing its stock recovering from the over11% drop Monday by about 5.5% in pre-market action.
Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) - after leading a tech selloff Monday and setting a new 52-week low, AAPL shares are showing much of a rebound. Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG), which closed at $381 Monday, is showing some signs of new life, bouncing over 3% to $394 in pre-market trade. Similarly RIM (NASDAQ: RIMM) is bouncing 3.8% this morning.
Oppenheimer upgraded shares of Cree (NASDAQ: CREE) to Outperform from Perform as they believe LEDs are beginning to gain traction in general lighting applications.
Jefferies upgraded Constellation Energy (NYSE: CEG) to Hold from Underperform following the acquisition by MidAmerican Energy. The company's target was increased to $25 from $20.
RBC upgraded the Banking sector to Overweight from Underweight following the governments "massive assault" on the financial crisis. RBC believes government actions that include the potential creation of a Resolution Trust Corporation, the creation of federal insurance for money market fund investors and the ban on short selling will result in higher bank stock prices through year end; Wilmington Trust (NYSE: WL), KeyCorp (NYSE: KEY) and Pacific Capital Bancorp (NASDAQ: PCBC) were upgraded to Sector Perform from Underperform.
Oracle (NASDAQ: ORCL) was raised to Buy from Neutral at Piper.
UBS upgraded Murphy Oil (NYSE: MUR) to Neutral from Sell.
Gap (NYSE: GPS) was upgraded to buy from Neutral at Goldman Sachs.
Analyst downgrades:
Deutsche Bank downgraded shares of Thomson Reuters (NASDAQ: TRIN) to Sell from Buy as they believe uncertainty in the financial sector will hinder growth.
Piper cut MIPS Technologies (NASDAQ: MIPS) to Neutral from Buy as they believe estimates are at risk following the departure of ChipIdea's co-founder. The company's target was lowered to $3.70 from $8.
Jefferies downgraded GSI Commerce (NASDAQ: GSIC) to Hold from Buy on valuation as they view the risk/reward less compelling following the recent rally.
Host Hotels (NYSE: HST) was downgraded at Baird to Neutral from Outperform.
Jefferies initiated Abercrombie & Fitch (NYSE: ANF) with an Underperform rating and $38 target and thinks the company's sales and margins are at risk with negative comp trends getting worse.
Cantor believes Lawson Software (NASDAQ: LWSN) has a powerful franchise while the stock trades at a 33% discount to peers. Shares were assumed with a Buy rating and $8 target.
Stanford started Mentor (NYSE: MNT) with a Buy rating and $32 target and thinks the company is poised to benefit from growing global demand for products and services that make people look younger and more attractive.
Scripps Networks (NYSE: SNI) was initiated at UBS with a Neutral rating and $43 target.
BMO Capital initiated Costco (NASDAQ: COST) and BJ's Wholesale (NYSE: BJ) with Market Perform ratings and a $72 target and $42 target, respectively.
Isle of Capri (NASDAQ: ISLE) was initiated at Goldman with a Sell rating and $6 target.
U.S. stock futures are pointing to further declines following a rough session where the Dow plunged 344 points and ahead of the jobs report mostly feared to show weakness in the labor market. Non-farm payroll is expected to show a job loss of 75,000 but the unemployment remain unchanged. Meanwhile, international markets sank following U.S. markets. Also affecting mood this morning is Goldman's call to sell Merrill Lynch.
Goldman Sachs downgraded Merrill Lynch & Co. (NYSE: MER) to Sell from Neutral and added the firm to its conviction sell list. MER stock is plunging 6.6% in pre-market trading. Goldman said valuation and the likelihood of further write-downs are the reasons. Goldman also lowered its third-quarter EPS forecast to a loss of $5.75 a share.
SanDisk (NASDAQ: SNDK) shares are shooting up 26% in pre-market trading after Samsung Electronics said it may buy the flash memory maker. There are no concrete announcements or details as to price yet.
And at Boeing (NYSE: BA), the company continues to negotiate with labor leaders to avert an expensive strike it cannot afford. Negotiators and mediators are trying to work to avert the strike voted for by the union during the 48 hour extension.
This morning, ANF opened at $51.39. So far today the stock has hit a low of $50.87 and a high of $53.00. As of 12:00, ANF is trading at $51.29, down $3.42 (-6.2%). The chart for ANF looked slightly bullish before today and S&P gives ANF a positive 5 STARS (out of 5) strong buy ranking.
For a bearish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a November bear-call credit spread above the $65 range. A bear-call credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of call options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make an 8.7% return in eleven weeks as long as ANF is below $65 at November expiration. Abercrombie would have to rise by more than 25% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.
ANF hasn't been above $35 since June and has shown resistance around $55 recently. Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer.
DISCLOSURE: Mr. Archer owns and/or controls diversified portfolios of long and short stock and option positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in ANF.
J. Crew Group's (NYSE: JCG) stock is not a thing of beauty. The retailer's shares have been weak for a long time, and the latest quarterly numbers did nothing to change my mind about the stock's prospects.
For the second quarter, J. Crew, whose competitors include Abercrombie & Fitch (NYSE: ANF) and Gap (NYSE: GPS), reported a 10% increase in top-line sales. Not bad, I suppose. But I'll tell you what, there is some bad to come. Operating income went down 15%. Gross margin saw an unfortunate decline, dropping from 43.7% to 41%. And earnings per diluted share came in at 28 cents compared to last year's 32 cents per diluted share. That's a better than 12% drop.
Now, there is something to consider with the stats. The earnings release states that a systems upgrade in the direct-sales channel is affecting the results. In fact, there apparently were some costs related to the upgrades that were unexpected. Management says that this sum was equal to $3 million. In theory, these upgrades will help to position the company for long-term growth.
Aeropostale (NYSE: ARO), a retailer whose colleagues include Abercrombie & Fitch (NYSE: ANF), Pacific Sunwear of California (NASDAQ: PSUN) and Gap (NYSE: GPS), issued its Q2 report on Thursday. The stock didn't do much after the numbers were made public despite reporting a very nice 21% increase in sales during Q2, and a whopping 63% jump in earnings per diluted share to 31 cents. Why such a blasé reaction? Well, the retailer was only able to match the expectations of Wall Street analysts, so that might offer some justification for the lack of a decisive bid.
I felt the same way after reading Aeropostale's earnings release as I did after perusing the stats behind GameStop's (NYSE: GME) recent quarter, thinking the company deserved at least a little excitement, especially when one considers that last year at this time, the mall chain saw a 4% contraction in same-store sales. Of course, there is one understandable difference between the GameStop situation and the Aeropostale scenario. GameStop's stock wasn't trading near a 52-week high, and Aeropostale's shares are. So, perhaps the market is perceiving that a lot of the good news is already priced in.
Aeropostale has done well this year. Its stock is up over 28%. Should that concern potential investors? Perhaps. After all, this is a mall retailer based on fashion and investors must consider that Aeropostale's current hot streak could cool. If that happens, the stock might end up retreating back to the lower end of its 52-week range. While there are any signs that such a retreat will happen, I only want to throw into the discussion the concept of fickleness among the youth.
If you really like Aeropostale and want to buy its stock, it might not be so bad to wait for a better price, in my opinion, to allow at least a little margin for error.
Disclosure: I don't own any company mentioned; positions can change at any time.
A hot retailer reporting a 4% drop in second quarter profit in the face of a 4% decline in same-store sales might not seem like good news but, in a very tough retail climate, it's a sign of how well Abercrombie and Fitch (NYSE: ANF) is holding up.
The stock's up more than 2% on the company's second quarter earnings, released this morning. The highlights:
Revenue up 5% to $845.8 million.
Abercrombie and Fitch same-store sales up 3%. abercrombie (kids clothes) SSS down 11%; Hollister down 9%, RUEHL down 22%.
EPS down 1% to 87 cents on improved gross margins.
For a company to increase gross margins in the face of soaring commodity costs and timid consumer spending is extremely impressive, and a testament to the company's continued pricing power.
Investors have to be somewhat troubled by the performance of Hollister and the much-hyped RUEHL. Hollister may have been hurt because, as a lower-price point version of Abercrombie (Abercrombie won't call it that but that's what it is), its shoppers may be more sensitive to the economy. The huge plunge in same-store sales at Ruehl indicates that that brand might not have the great future people once thought it did -- but at less than 2% of the company's total sales, it won't drag anything down.
The stock has taken a beating with the rest of the retailers but, long-term, its prospects remain as strong as ever.
U.S. stock futures were higher Friday morning, indicating stock markets could possibly extend Thursday's rally as the dollar rose and oil prices fell further. The dollar continues to make gains on the back of growing evidence of global economic softness. Still, several economic readings are due out today, including the New York Empire State manufacturing index , capacity utilization and industrial production -- all before the opening bell.
Kohl's Corp shares could start higher as premarket indication has them trading 2.3% higher, while Nordstrom's are trading 4% lower in premarket action. Kohl's quarterly profit fell 12% from a year ago, but the retailer lifted its fiscal year profit forecast. Meanwhile, upper scale Nordstrom, reported a 21% drop in second-quarter profits and cut full year outlook.
ANF said second-quarter profit fell on lower sales of jeans and T-shirts and forecast full-year earnings per share that trailed some analysts' estimates. JCP also saw profit decline but beat estimates and issued lower guidance.
Autodesk (NASDAQ: ADSK) shares are trading 10% higher in premarket action after the design software maker reported stronger-than-forecast second-quarter earnings Thursday after the close.
Even with the stimulus checks, retail sales numbers for June and July have been nothing to cheer about. And this coming week should provide another look at how things have been shaping up in the apparel and accessories arena. A number of companies are scheduled to release quarterly numbers, from upscale retailer Nordstrom to the parent of discounter TJ Maxx, from hipster Urban Outfitters to global giant Wal-Mart. Here's a look at what Wall Street is anticipating.
Analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial expect the following to report strong earnings growth when compared to the same period of the previous year.
Abercrombie & Fitch (NYSE: ANF - option chain) shares are tanking today after the company reported a 7 percent decline in same-store sales in July, much worse than the 1.4 percent decline expected by analysts. Apparently, suburban Moms and Dads decided that $100 jeans were not the correct place to spend their economic stimulus checks. Either that or they were finally turned off by the three-quarters naked models in the store windows. If you think this stock won't be rising too far in the coming months, then it could be a good time to look at a bearish hedged play on ANF.
This morning, ANF opened at $52.13. So far today the stock has hit a low of $49.55 and a high of $52.72. As of 12:50, ANF is trading at $49.55, down 6.18 (-11.1%). The chart for ANF looks bearish but S&P gives ANF a positive 5 STARS (out of 5) strong buy ranking.
For a bearish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a September bear-call credit spread above the $65 range. A bear-call credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of call options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 4.2% return in six weeks as long as ANF is below $65 at September expiration. Abercrombie would have to rise by more than 20% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.
ANF hasn't been above $65 since late June and has shown resistance around $56 recently. This trade could be risky if the economy stages a rebound, but even if that happens, the position above could be protected by reluctant shoppers who still have lingering worries about their wallets.
DISCLOSURE: Mr. Archer owns and/or controls diversified portfolios of long and short stock and option positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in ANF.
Citigroup upgraded shares of Amgen Inc. (NASDAQ: AMGN) to Buy from Hold and raised the target price to $70 from $50 following AMGN's better-than-expected Q2 results and positive Dmab results.
Credit Suisse upgraded Electronic Data Systems (NYSE: EDS) to Neutral from Underperform and expects the Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ) transaction to close at the $25/share price.
Analyst downgrades:
JP Morgan downgraded OmniVision (NASDAQ: OVTI) to Neutral from Overweight citing slowing growth and increased competition, as well as the impact on margins.
KeyBanc said Visa's (NYSE: V) strengths are its recurring revenue model, significant pricing power, no consumer credit risk, operating leverage, expense flexibility, and considerable free cash flow, among other reasons. The firm initiated shares with a Buy rating and $94 target.
Regal Entertainment (NYSE: RGC) was assumed at Caris with an Average rating and $18 target. The firm sees tough comps ahead for the company and does not expect any meaningful price increases.
Caris also initiated Marvel Entertainment (NYSE: MVL), as they are positive on the company's new financing vehicle. Shares were initiated with a Buy rating and $45 target.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Abercrombie & Fitch, China Unicom and Toronto Dominion were today's noteworthy downgrades:
Friedman Billings downgraded Abercrombie & Fitch (NYSE: ANF) to Market Perform from Outperform citing soft comps which could impact EPS expectations in 2H08 and SG&A investing.
China Unicom (NYSE: CHU) was downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Credit Suisse and to Equal Weight from Overweight at Morgan Stanley as the company's phone asset sales garnered a lower-than-expected price.
RBC Capital downgraded Toronto Dominion (NYSE: TD) to Sector Perform from Outperform citing expense initiatives in domestic retail banking which are hurting operating leverage, loan losses in U.S. banking, and muted capital markets revenues.
OTHER DOWNGRADES:
William Blair cut Littelfuse (NASDAQ: LFUS) to Market Perform from Outperform.
Linear Tech (NASDAQ: LLTC) was downgraded at UBS to Neutral from Buy.
Abiomed (NASDAQ: ABMD) was lowered to Neutral from Positive at Susquehanna.
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Analyst upgrades:
Volatility is becoming the market's new name. Much of yesterday's 700+ point drop in the DJIA was largely erased as the DJIA was up more than 400 points for most of the last hour today. The markets weren't driven by a bailout package. It was the BELIEF that a new passage would get passed by the weekend. Consumer confidence did come in 
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U.S. stock futures are pointing to further declines following a rough session where the Dow plunged 344 points and ahead of the jobs report mostly feared to show weakness in the labor market. Non-farm payroll is expected to show a job loss of 75,000 but the unemployment remain unchanged. Meanwhile, 
A hot retailer reporting a 4% drop in second quarter profit in the face of a 4% decline in same-store sales might not seem like good news but, in a very tough retail climate, it's a sign of how well 
Even with the stimulus checks, retail sales numbers for June and July have been .gif){kind=logo}
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The Wal-Mart Weekly: Retailer accused of sweatshop conditions in Bangladesh
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